College Basketball Odds & Pick for Texas vs Texas Tech

Every game matters in the Big 12. But when Texas and Texas Tech get together, it always means a little more.

Both teams remain likely NCAA tournament participants despite disappointing double-digit losses over the weekend. Per Bart Torvik’s TourneyCast tool, Texas Tech holds a 96.3% chance at earning an at-large, while Texas is at 83.8%. Adding a win here would go even further towards securing a bid for either squad.

But for each squad, it’s more about beating a vicious rival. Though he's no longer involved in the game, Chris Beard’s defection from Lubbock to Austin sparked plenty of added animosity between the schools.

Considering each team’s dismal road performance this weekend, expect two laser-focused squads. And Texas is seeking revenge for the Longhorns’ home loss to the Red Raiders back on Jan. 6.

The Longhorns have been consistently inconsistent in Big 12 play. They've yet to post a winning or losing streak of more than two games in a row.

During that span, they’ve had some tremendous performances – throttling Red River rival Oklahoma on the road by 15 – and some very poor ones, like losing back-to-back contests at West Virginia and to UCF at home.

Which version will we see in Lubbock on Tuesday? The answer hinges heavily on Max Abmas.

The high-scoring guard got off to a terrific start to league play, but he's seemingly hit a wall of late. Over his last three games, Abmas is averaging just 6.7 points per game on 7-of-32 shooting from the field (21.9%). Texas desperately needs his jump-shooting prowess to over up space for its slashers and big men inside.

To that end, Dylan Disu has done his part. The versatile big man had been on a tear before getting shut down by Kansas (and foul trouble) over the weekend.

Along with fellow center Kadin Shedrick, the Longhorns could have success inside against Texas Tech. Red Raider center Warren Washington hasn't been healthy of late, managing just 13 ineffectual minutes at UCF on Saturday. Washington’s injury could also give Texas an edge on the glass.

That was the case in the first meeting, as Texas outrebounded Texas Tech 38-27 – despite a healthy Washington.

Like most Big 12 squads, Texas Tech has fared significantly better at home. The Red Raiders have lost just once in 15 tries on their home floor (to Cincinnati on Feb. 3), compared to a 2-6 record on the road. That win rate at United Supermarkets Arena hasn't guaranteed profitability, though; TTU is just 7-8 against the spread at home.

Washington’s injury looms large. A true seven-footer, Washington completely alters the Red Raiders on both ends.

Defensively, he creates a no-fly zone near the rim. Per Hoop Explorer, Texas Tech foes shoot 54.8% at the rim when he plays; that balloons to 63.0% when he sits.

And offensively, he’s a serious threat as a lob recipient, helping to open up shots for Tech’s perimeter players.

Those shooters have been the Red Raiders’ biggest strength this year. TTU ranks 49th nationally and third in the Big 12 in 3-point percentage while taking over 40% of field goal attempts from deep. Pop Isaacs has been in a slump this year, but Darrion Williams, Chance McMillian and Kerwin Walton are all major threats.

Of course, McMillian’s status is also up in the air after missing Saturday’s loss. His pure scoring amps up Texas Tech’s offense to scorching levels, but Grant McCasland was non-committal about his health (and Washington’s) on Monday.

Texas Tech’s injury uncertainties make this a challenging handicap. If Washington — a great defender — plays and McMillian — a lethal scorer — does not (as was the case at UCF), the under becomes very appealing. Both guys impact the side and the total.

Texas’ own inconsistencies add to the difficulty. It's unlikely that Abmas continues to struggle so severely, and against a shaky perimeter defense, perhaps he finds the positive regression that's likely lurking. But beyond he and Disu, Texas’ offense can be shaky.

Ultimately, I'm going with the brilliant McCasland and his home Red Raiders to complete the season sweep. Texas has lost seven of its last eight visits to Lubbock, and despite injuries, I believe Texas Tech remains the better team.

Still, the lack of clarity on Washington and McMillian as I write this lowers my confidence in this wager. As a result, proceed with caution, reducing your bet size as you're comfortable.

Pick: Texas Tech -4 (Play to -5)