The VCU Rams take on the NC State Wolfpack in Raleigh, NC. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ACC Network.
NC State is favored by -12.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1000. The total is set at 165.5 points.
Here’s my VCU vs. NC State prediction and college basketball picks for November 17, 2025.
VCU vs NC State Prediction
My Pick: Over 166.5
My VCU vs NC State best bet is on the over. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
VCU vs. NC State Odds
| VCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 165.5 -110o / -110u | +650 |
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 165.5 -110o / -110u | -1000 |
- VCU vs NC State spread: NC State -12.5
- VCU vs NC State over/under: 165.5 points
- VCU vs NC State moneyline: VCU +650, NC State -1000
VCU vs NC State College Basketball Betting Preview
VCU Basketball
When looking at the over, this matchup becomes favorable when you factor in VCU’s defensive profile. The Rams allow an effective field goal rate of 44.8%.
They're one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the nation (298th in defensive offensive rebound rate), meaning NC State will have countless second-chance scoring opportunities on top of its already elite shooting.
More importantly for an over, NC State plays fast enough to maximize possessions.
The Wolfpack own the 32nd-shortest average possession length on offense, and when you pair a top-20 offensive efficiency with a tempo that high, that tailors to a high-scoring contest.
VCU’s defense also has an aggressive style that can unintentionally accelerate games; the Rams force steals at a top-100 rate, but when they gamble and miss, NC State can turn those opportunities into instant transition buckets.
On the other side, VCU’s offense quietly brings a ton of upside to this number. The Rams rank 89th in adjusted offensive efficiency and play at a decent pace, sitting 45th in average possession length at 15.1 seconds.
So far, they take 3s at the 39th-highest rate nationally and knock them down at 38.4%, another strong indicator for pace-inflated scoring.
Their shot profile is precisely what you want when backing an over against NC State’s defense, which is far more vulnerable on the perimeter than the metrics suggest.
NC State Basketball
New NC State head coach Will Wade's offense has been operating at an elite level, ranking 17th nationally in adjusted efficiency.
This isn’t smoke and mirrors, as the Wolfpack are absolutely shredding teams with shooting splits that rival the best units in the country.
Despite it being only two games, they’re hitting a ridiculous 67.6% from the field on an effective field goal basis, which ranks second nationally.
They’ve been equally devastating inside and out, as they're knocking down 44.1% from deep and an absurd 69.2% inside of the arc, which is good for the No. 1 2-point percentage in the entire country.
The Wolfpack have allowed opponents to shoot 24.6% from 3 so far, but that number is nowhere near sustainable, especially against a VCU team that not only shoots a high volume of 3s, but generates 38.4% of its total points from behind the arc.
Regression is coming, and this is the matchup where that correction is far more likely to show up.
Add in the free-throw component (VCU ranks 23rd nationally in FTA/FGA, while NC State ranks 319th defensively in free-throw rate allowed), and that's a perfect recipe for consistent scoring even when possessions stall.
VCU vs. NC State Betting Analysis
If you’re looking for a game tailor-made for points, this one checks all the boxes. The deeper you dive into the efficiency data, the more it makes sense. KenPom projects this total to be 159, and I typically love to ride the market steam when it's above its projection.
This matchup sets up as a track meet between two efficient, pace-friendly offenses, one of the best shooting teams in the nation and a VCU squad that makes a lot of 3s.
I expect a ton of possessions for both teams throughout the contest, which is why the market has steamed past the KenPom projection.
The spread might be significant, but VCU's offense should keep pace with NC State's, and I expect both offenses to shine in Raleigh on Monday.
My Pick: Over 166.5
