Miami (FL) vs. S. Florida Odds & Betting Predictions - September 21, 2024
Miami (FL) at S. Florida
11:00 pm • ESPNMiami (FL) at S. Florida Odds
Spread, Total, Moneyline
MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Miami (FL) 10-2 | -18 | -16.5-110 | o64.5-112 | -850 |
S. Florida 6-6 | u65 | +16.5-110 | u64.5-109 | +575 |
Saturday 11:00 p.m.
September 21, 2024Raymond James StadiumTampa
Miami (FL) vs. S. Florida Expert Picks
Shady Biev
73d ago
Last 30d: 171-225-4 (-53.7u)
MIA -17-108
2u
Big Bets On Campus (CFB)
73d ago
Last 30d: 14-13-0 (-0.6u)
USF +17-111
1u
@Stuckey2
Brett McMurphy
73d ago
Last 30d: 22-18-2 (+1.6u)
USF +17-110
1u
Tanner McGrath
74d ago
Last 30d: 110-98-5 (+5.0u)
USF +17-110
1.1u
Picks Office
75d ago
Last 30d: 103-104-3 (-10.0u)
USF +17-110
1u
Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice
Miami enters this matchup riding high after a dominant start, but we've seen this before. The Hurricanes opened last season with similar hype, only to falter when the competition stiffened, and history may repeat itself here. After a blowout win over Florida and a couple of easy victories against Ball State and Florida A&M, the Hurricanes look solid on both sides of the ball. However, their true mettle hasn't been tested, especially in their secondary. USF, with its potent passing game led by quarterback Byrum Brown, has the tools to exploit this. Miami's secondary, while athletic, hasn't faced a serious passing attack this year, and USF could present the first real challenge.
Byrum Brown's dual-threat ability adds another wrinkle to this game. His rushing prowess gives the Bulls offense a solid floor, preventing Miami's aggressive pass rush from simply teeing off. USF has been improving steadily, and while their defense is still a work in progress, there have been encouraging signs, particularly with the influx of experienced transfers. The Bulls should be able to at least keep the Hurricanes honest, especially with the motivation that comes from playing a home game against a nationally ranked team. USF’s track record under head coach Alex Golesh shows they can rise to the occasion in these types of matchups, as evidenced by competitive outings against Power 5 teams like Alabama.
Another factor working in USF's favor is the market's possible overvaluation of Miami. The Hurricanes' blowout win over Florida looks less impressive after Texas A&M's dismantling of the Gators, and Miami's failure to cover as a heavy favorite is a pattern under Mario Cristobal. His 8-16 ATS record as a 14-plus point favorite is a strong indication that the Hurricanes tend to play down to their competition in such scenarios. USF, playing in front of a raucous home crowd, will likely keep this one closer than expected, particularly with the emotion of a matchup against an in-state powerhouse. Furthermore, teams laying two or more touchdowns in their fourth game have historically struggled to cover, hitting less than 40% of the time.
While Miami has the talent to overpower inferior opponents, USF's offensive firepower and an improving defense provide enough of a threat to keep this game competitive. The Bulls might not win outright, but getting 17 points or more in a high-energy home setting gives them significant value in this spot.
Collin Wilson
75d ago
Last 30d: 81-69-3 (-16.8u)
USF +17.5-112
1.12u
Per BBOC Podcast, available on YouTube and all podcast platforms
Brett McMurphy
76d ago
Last 30d: 22-18-2 (+1.6u)
Over 65-109
1u
Babs .
77d ago
Last 30d: 93-84-2 (+3.8u)
Under 14.5 (1Q)-120
1u
Stuck 🚨
78d ago
Last 30d: 67-58-0 (+2.3u)
USF +17.5-110
0.5u
Babs .
78d ago
Last 30d: 93-84-2 (+3.8u)
USF +17.5-112
1u
Miami (FL) vs. S. Florida Previews & Analysis
Prop Odds Comparison
Line Movement Tracker
Miami (FL) vs. S. Florida Public Betting Percentages
Betting Trends
- S. Florida are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- S. Florida are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- S. Florida are 4-2 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 4 of S. Florida' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of S. Florida' 6 last games at home
Matchup History
Against the Spread (ATS) History
overall | home | away | favorite | underdog | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
S. Florida | 6-6 | 2-4 | 4-2 | 3-2 | 2-4 |
Miami (FL) | 6-6 | 3-3 | 3-3 | 5-5 | N/A |
Over/Under History
overall | home o/u | away o/u | favorite o/u | underdog o/u | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
S. Florida | 7-5 | 3-3 | 4-2 | 5-0 | 2-4 |
Miami (FL) | 9-3 | 4-2 | 5-1 | 7-3 | N/A |
Straight-Up (ML) History
overall | home | away | favorite | underdog | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
S. Florida | 6-6 | N/A | N/A | 4-1 | 1-5 |
Miami (FL) | 10-2 | N/A | N/A | 8-2 | N/A |
Last 5 Matchups
S. Florida vs. Miami (FL) Injury Updates
S. Florida Injuries
- Michael Brown-StephensWR
Brown-Stephens is questionable with head
Questionable
Miami (FL) Injuries
Team Stats
592
Total Yards
365
63
Total Plays
75
9.396825396825397
Yards Per Play
4.866666666666666
404
YDS
303
24/34
Comps/Atts
26/43
11.882352941176471
YPA
7.046511627906977
3/1
TDs/INTs
1/2
0/0
Sacks/Yards
4/27
11/113
Penalties/Yards
11/73
Miami (FL) vs. S. Florida Odds Comparison
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Miami (FL) at S. Florida Team Totals
MatchupOverUnder | ||
---|---|---|
Miami (FL) 10-2 | o40.5-130 | u40.5-105 |
S. Florida 6-6 | o23.5-115 | u23.5-120 |