2019 College Football Bowl Projections, College Football Playoff Rankings
Thomas J. Russo-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Justin Fields
- We've updated our college football bowl projections one last time before bowl announcements on Sunday afternoon, which begin at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN with the College Football Playoff.
- The CFP field feels set with LSU, Ohio State, Clemson and Oklahoma, but there's some debate about who will get the No. 1 seed and get a more favorable matchup with the Sooners in the semifinals.
- We're projecting every bowl game and the point spreads for those games using our betting power ratings.
The College Football Playoff field is set with LSU, Ohio State, Clemson and Oklahoma.
The only debate? If LSU or Ohio State gets the No. 1 seed and therefore avoids Clemson in the semifinals.
LSU, Ohio State and Clemson will all be at least a touchdown favorite over Oklahoma, so it’s a big advantage to avoid the Tigers.
While Ohio State entered this week No. 1, I do think LSU gets it after the title games. Two of Ohio State’s top 25 wins coming against the same team will hurt the Buckeyes, and a lackluster performance in the Big Ten Championship compared to LSU’s efforts against Georgia will be enough to get the Tigers the top spot.
Below you’ll find the projections for every bowl game and the College Football Playoff, which we’ve been updating throughout the day on Saturday, plus projected point spreads on those matchups via our oddsmaker-style power ratings. Action EDGE members can use them to make a line between any two teams.
2019 College Football Bowl Projections
College Football Playoff
Our Vegas-style power ratings make LSU an 8-point favorite over Oklahoma and Clemson a 2.5-point favorite over Ohio State.
New Year’s Six Bowls
There are still a few unknowns in the New Year’s Six bowl.
The Big Ten’s Rose Bowl bid will go to either Wisconsin or Penn State, since Ohio State is going to the playoff. The Badgers entered the week at No. 8 in the CFP rankings, with Penn State at No. 10, but they might have put up enough of a fight to stay in the top 10.
There’s really a razor thin margin between the Nittany Lions and Badgers. Both finished the regular season 10-2 with a loss to Ohio State and wins over Michigan and Iowa. It could come down to whether or not the committee will penalize Wisconsin for taking a third loss, which seems foolish considering it only lost another game because it won the Big Ten West.
Baylor gets the Big 12’s Sugar Bowl spot with Oklahoma going to the College Football Playoff, and Georgia gets the other Sugar Bowl spot as the SEC runner up.
Memphis was the highest-ranked Group of Five team entering the week and won the best G5 conference, so it will head to the Cotton Bowl to face Penn State or Wisconsin — whichever team doesn’t get to the Rose Bowl.
Every Other Bowl Game
One six-win MAC team is probably going to get left out because there are 79 bowl eligible teams for 78 spots. We have Kent State out right now.
If Wisconsin had been blown out by Ohio State, the bowl landscape at the top would have changed a little bit. That would have put Penn State in the Rose Bowl, either Auburn or Utah in the Cotton Bowl, and that would have affected both the SEC, Big Ten and Pac-12 pecking orders.
It’s a weird year for the SEC with only nine teams bowl eligible and three going to New Year’s Six bowls. Many of their lower-tiered games, like the Birmingham Bowl and Independence Bowl, will have to be filled by other teams.
Action EDGE members can use our betting-style power ratings to project point spreads between any two teams, including conference title games and bowl games.
Updated 9 a.m. ET on Sunday
2019 Bowl Game Tie-Ins
Peach Bowl — CFP Semifinal
Fiesta Bowl — CFP Semifinal
Sugar Bowl — SEC vs. Big 12
Rose Bowl — Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Orange Bowl — ACC vs. SEC/Big Ten/ND
Cotton Bowl — at-large vs. at-large
Mobile Bowl — MAC vs. Sun Belt
Armed Forces Bowl — Big Ten vs. Mountain West
Potato Bowl — MAC vs. Mountain West
Gator Bowl — Big Ten vs. SEC
Birmingham Bowl — American vs. SEC
Citrus Bowl — ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC
Outback Bowl — Big Ten vs. SEC
Alamo Bowl — Big 12 vs. Pac-12
Arizona Bowl — Mountain West vs. Sun Belt
Liberty Bowl — Big 12 vs. SEC
Sun Bowl — ACC vs. Pac-12
Belk Bowl — ACC vs. SEC
Redbox Bowl — Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Music City Bowl — ACC vs. SEC
First Responder Bowl — Big 12 vs. C-USA
Camping World Bowl — ACC vs. Big 12
Cheez-It Bowl — Big 12 vs. Pac-12
Holiday Bowl — Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Texas Bowl — Big 12 vs. SEC
Pinstripe Bowl — ACC vs. Big Ten
Military Bowl — ACC vs. American
Quick Lane Bowl — ACC vs. Big Ten
Independence Bowl — ACC vs. SEC
Hawaii Bowl — BYU vs. American
Gasparilla Bowl — American/ACC vs. C-USA
New Orleans Bowl — C-USA vs. Sun Belt
Las Vegas Bowl — Mountain West vs. Pac-12
Camellia Bowl — MAC vs. Sun Belt
Boca Raton Bowl — American/C-USA/MAC
Cure Bowl — American vs. Sun Belt
New Mexico Bowl — C-USA vs. Mountain West
Frisco Bowl — American vs. C-USA/MAC/Mountain West
Bahamas Bowl — C-USA vs. MAC