Welcome back for another installment of our spring college football conference preview series focused on regular-season win totals.
It's time to dive into the ACC.
Miami enters as a heavy favorite to win the league after reloading at quarterback following an appearance in the National Championship game just 100 days ago. Accordingly, the Hurricanes boast the highest win total at 10.5.
There are some fun contenders in this league looking to dethrone Miami (or, I guess, in this case, Duke), including SMU and Louisville, which are poised to make some noise in ACC play.
Clemson and Virginia Tech are also looking to get back into conference title contention, and we cover it all below.
As a reminder, there will be recommendations on every win total for every team. Those recommendations will include official plays, leans or situations where I recommend passing at the current number.
With that said, let's dive into my 2026 ACC picks and my college football win totals for the upcoming season.
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Welcome to our ACC win totals preview. To navigate directly to a specific team section, simply click on a logo above.
Boston College Eagles
Win Total: 3.5 (+118o / -144u)
Boston College likely deserved better than its 2-10 record in a season that saw the Eagles win their first and last game of the season with 10 losses sandwiched in between.
There were flashes of brilliance as the Eagles played up to stiff competition more often than not, coming close to victory on five occasions, including their home game against Notre Dame, but just didn't have the horses to go toe-to-toe for a full 60 minutes.
The quarterback play was sporadic, and after throwing nine combined touchdown passes in the first two weeks, BC quarterbacks threw just 11 the rest of the season.
No one outside of Turbo Richard could run the ball, and the offensive line was terrible, allowing 34 sacks with a rushing average of just 3.3 yards per carry.
The third-down and red-zone execution was terrible outside of the first two games, and the Eagles were -9 in turnovers. Not good.
BC also couldn't stop the run in the second half of the season, which stressed an already weak secondary that struggled in pass coverage.
The Eagles never generated momentum-swinging turnovers, and the defense was one of the worst in the country when it came to surrendering 40- and 50-yard plays.
In some ways, this group was so close, and in others, so far from being formidable.
BC didn't get great QB play last year, and I'm not sure the room has improved much this offseason. Grayson Wilson does come in from Arkansas, though, after the departures of Dylan Lonergan (Rutgers) and Grayson James (graduated).
An under-the-radar player is going to have to emerge here. A couple of nice additions at running back and wide receiver provide some hope for explosiveness, but the offensive line has to pass-protect.
BC also has to run the football more effectively to see any improvement this season.
Defensively, most of the production is gone in the front seven, but Notre Dame, Georgia and SMU transfers will contend for immediate playing time to elevate the performance of the defensive line.
The secondary has experience and should improve on last season's poor numbers.
BC has a very reliable field-goal operation from inside 50 yards as well.
Each of the first three games is winnable, highlighted by a Week 2 showdown at home with Rutgers on Sept. 11. This is a game where I'll be betting on BC no matter the line, so circle this one.
The bye week is well-timed, and the Eagles do get Florida State late in the season at home in the cold. BC catches Syracuse playing its eighth straight week as well.
The Eagles will likely be favored in only three games this season and could be touchdown or larger underdogs in eight contests.
They play seven of the top 10 projected finishers in ACC play while catching just one of the bottom seven. I see 3-4 wins on the schedule, but very little value in the regular-season win total, so I'm passing.
Pick: Pass
Cal Golden Bears
Win Total: 6.5 (-110o / -110u)
California was one of the more baffling teams to try to figure out last season. The dominance shown during its 3-0 start quickly faded.
The Golden Bears didn’t win another game all season by more than four points and were quite fortunate to win any, given the game trends against Boston College, North Carolina, Louisville and SMU.
A sour taste was left in their mouth on the island on Christmas Eve, as Hawaii came back from down, 21-0, in the first half to stun Cal with a long touchdown pass with 10 seconds remaining to give the Bears a 7-6 finish.
Former Oregon defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi will serve as the new head coach, replacing Justin Wilcox, who was let go. The entire staff is new hires with the exception of offensive line coach Famika Anae, who was retained from the previous regime.
The electrifying Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele returns at quarterback for his sophomore season and should improve on a very impressive freshman campaign.
Former Hawaii and Washington State head coach Nick Rolovich was hired as the associate head coach and will coach the QBs as well. He'll get the best out of JKS.
The rest of the skill positions need to be worked out because Cal lost a ton of production at running back and receiver from last season.
Chase Hendricks and Ian Strong are solid portal additions at receiver, and Dorian Thomas will be a difference-maker at tight end.
The offensive line needs to be patched up, and on-field improvement is needed after surrendering 32 sacks and averaging 2.7 yards per carry on the season.
Most of the defensive production from last season is gone, which could be trouble.
The defense wasn't great at getting stops on third down and wore down against the run late in the season despite playing poor rushing teams.
The schedule is tough, drawing both UCLA and UNLV in the nonconference. Both of those games will be coin-flips. An early cross-country conference trip to Syracuse and hosting Clemson early in the season will test this team quickly.
The other issue is that Cal doesn't have a bye week until Nov. 7 and has a month in between home tilts during that stretch. There's no question that travel will impact the Bears with four tricky conference road games.
I project Cal to be favored in six games this season, but it will only be a field goal or greater favorite against an FBS opponent once, and that comes in their rivalry game against Stanford. A worse Stanford team beat Cal by three touchdowns last season.
I just don't think Cal is very good, and now you have a first-time head coach navigating this schedule with coordinators who were NFL position coaches last season. This season is going to be different for them all around.
I assume it takes a year to really get going. Cal pulls five of the top eight projected finishers in ACC play. At best, these guys are fighting the last couple of weeks just to make a bowl game. Give me the win total under.
Pick: Cal Under 6.5 Wins (+120 · Caesars)
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Clemson Tigers
Win Total: 7.5 (-128o / +104u)
Clemson is in a tough spot, as head coach Dabo Swinney has seen the program decline each of the last three years while refusing to embrace elements of the transfer portal that would immediately inject talent into the program.
While he's clearly an all-timer with the program, the on-field performance has slipped, and we saw that last year at 7-6.
Four home losses were equally as stunning, and now with quarterback Cade Klubnik and a plethora of talented defenders departing, Dabo had no choice but to use the portal, which he did to add 10 transfers.
You could make a case that the Tigers are in good hands with Christopher Vizzina at quarterback, but you could also argue that we simply don't know what he's going to become.
We do know the first assignment will be brutally tough, with a trip to LSU on the docket.
The offensive skill rooms will be comparable to last season, but you have to decide for yourself if that's good enough.
The defensive losses were massive, which provoked portal activity for the first time under Swinney. There were some good pickups on the defensive line, edge and in the secondary.
Two SEC foes in the nonconference make that portion of the schedule harder than many others will face. However, Clemson plays just one of the top three contenders in the ACC, and it gets to host Miami.
All conference road bouts are manageable, and I'm sure Clemson will be extra motivated to exact revenge against Duke, Syracuse and Georgia Tech.
The bye week is awkwardly placed before an FCS game, but that will afford Clemson an extended midseason break without a ton of pressure. It should be fresh and healthy when Virginia Tech comes to town.
The schedule doesn't create panic of another mediocre season, so I'd be surprised if Clemson fell into one.
While it's no longer feared as the alpha in the conference, this is still a team that should win eight games or so.
The Tigers catch VT in a great scheduling spot and also host the Palmetto Bowl against South Carolina.
One could argue that their toughest conference road test is a cross-country trip to Cal. They could lose that game, but they'll be favored by more than a field goal.
There's a very real possibility Clemson could be favored in nine games this season. If Vizzina comes around and the defensive line transfers hit, the Tigers should exceed their regular-season win total.
A home upset of a likely undefeated Miami would really turn heads and potentially put a conference championship in play.
Pick: Clemson Over 7.5 Wins (Lean)
Duke Blue Devils
Win Total: 5.5 (-115o / -105u)
Duke, the reigning ACC champs — in football!
The Blue Devils became one of the more unlikely conference champions at the Power 4 level in some time, and Duke's win over Virginia in the ACC Championship ignited the chaos that ensued during the College Football Playoff selection show.
The win and subsequent bowl victory gave Duke its third nine-win season in four years, marking the first time in school history that has been achieved.
Head coach Manny Diaz enters his third season in Durham, and the challenge this year will be defending the ACC title while undertaking a massive rebuild on offense.
Walker Eget comes in from San Jose State to take over at quarterback after Darian Mensah departed for Miami in the offseason.
The top four receivers are gone, and identifying reliable contributors in the skill-position rooms will be important. The offensive line appears shored up, and the transfer additions should fit in nicely here.
Duke's stop unit wasn't all that impressive last season, as the run defense wore down late in the year and regularly struggled to get off the field on third down.
Replacing four starters along the defensive line will be critical for defensive coordinator Jonathan Patke. Transfers in the secondary should shore up that side of the defense, but the coverage unit could have more pressure put on it if the sack and Havoc numbers fall from a rebuilt D-line.
Duke has been among the best teams in the country in exceeding win-total projections, doing so in each of the last four years.
Anything close to last year's nine-win season has to be considered a success, given the roster turnover and difficult road games.
The Blue Devils needed to outscore their opponents regularly in league play last season, but I don't think this year's roster will have that same offensive potency.
Despite a potential step back after a season of great success, it appears the books put out a sharp number on the win total with a number of 5.5.
Duke draws five of the bottom seven projected finishers in ACC play while playing just two of the top six. However, road contests against Illinois, Georgia Tech, Virginia, NC State and Miami won't be easy.
While Duke has had its most successful four-year stretch in program history, there's a real chance it takes a step back this year.
It might be tough to envision this bunch not making a bowl game, and I'm not ready to go that far yet. I'm passing on the win total at the current number.
Pick: Pass
Florida State Seminoles
Win Total: 6.5 (+130o / -160u)
I'm really struggling to figure out where this Florida State program is headed. The inconsistency in the on-field play has me questioning everything head coach Mike Norvell is doing.
This team was not overly talented last season, but the 'Noles had an exquisite game plan put together to beat Alabama in the opener, and followed that up with two thrashings of substantially inferior foes.
We then saw FSU struggle badly against the better teams in the ACC, but the bottom fell out in a road loss at Stanford, where FSU was a 19.5-point favorite and could barely pick up a first down.
The framework to field a solid defensive unit was there, as FSU sat among the FBS leaders in preventing explosive plays, created Havoc in the backfield and played solid ball on third downs.
Mediocre special teams and a knack for coming up short in big moments created four one-score losses, and the Seminoles struggled in their last three road games to finish 5-7. It was a stunning end to the season, given how it started.
Tommy Castellanos moves on, and in comes Ashton Daniels from Auburn by way of Stanford.
The rushing numbers look great overall, but when diving deeper, this bunch struggled to run the ball over the last eight games. Between the couple of guys who return and two FBS transfers joining in Texas' Quintrevion Wisner and FAU's Gemari Sands, capable ball-carriers will crowd the running back room.
The wide receiver talent is there, so the 'Noles should once again be an explosive bunch. This, of course, depends on the five FBS transfer offensive linemen coexisting together and unlocking the right combination.
The defensive line, which created a fair amount of havoc, should once again be productive, but the linebacker position is one where most of the talent vacates. UNC and Southern Miss transfers will compete for time, along with incoming high school signees.
The secondary will be on par with last year's group, which was inconsistent but showed flashes of ball-hawking ability. Penalties improved last year, but the special teams unit remained mediocre.
Florida State has perhaps the toughest ACC schedule of any team in the league. The 'Noles face the projected top four finishers and six of the top eight, while plucking just one of the bottom six.
Two SEC nonconference games compound the issue. This team is really going to have to improve dramatically in order to improve its record significantly.
Road games at Alabama, Louisville and Miami are challenging enough, but playing road games at Boston College and Pitt late in the season back-to-back will also be tough.
There's a real chance this team is just not that good. Florida State didn't improve its quarterback situation, and the departures compared to the portal infusion appears to be a wash.
There's a real chance Norvell doesn't do enough to save his job here, as the fanbase gets tired of subpar seasons year after year. I'm passing on the win total, but I do lean under.
Pick: Florida State Under 5.5 Wins (Lean)
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Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Win Total: 6.5 (+106o / -130u)
What Brent Key has done at Georgia Tech over the last four seasons has been quietly remarkable. This program was down and out after Paul Johnson left, and while it took some time, the rebuild was done the right way with player development, execution of the "long-game" approach and consistently overachieving against more talented opponents.
GT saw its win total improve every year since 2022, accompanied by top-25 upset wins and taking "big brother" Georgia to the wire seemingly every year.
This season will provide new challenges for Key and the Yellow Jackets, as many of the key players who had a hand in the elevation of this program are gone.
The coaching staff was retooled to include a new offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator, offensive line coach and several other position coaches.
The backfield duo of quarterback Haynes King and running back Jamal Haynes is no longer around in Atlanta, while 10 of the top 12 pass-catchers and the interior of the offensive line also depart.
The top four in the secondary are gone, as well. Only UNC returns less production in the ACC than Georgia Tech.
While the Ramblin' Wreck plays only eight conference games this year (many ACC teams are migrating to a nine-game schedule), the non-conference features three Power 4 opponents.
Alberto Mendoza transfers in to battle with Graham Knowles for the starting quarterback position, and both players remain somewhat unproven at this level of football.
The portal served GT well both in the skill-position rooms and along the offensive line, so getting all of the oars rowing in the same direction quickly will be critical in determining the trajectory of this season.
The defense is less of a mystery because new DC Jason Semore has many returning starters to work with, along with talented P4 transfers in the front seven.
The secondary will likely be tested, though, as many rotational players will now be relied on to play more meaningful snaps.
Tech should have 7-8 games priced within eight points, which gives the Yellow Jackets plenty of opportunities for wins. The Wreck has a knack for playing in close games, and more often than not, the situational breaks landed in their favor.
However, the defense forced just nine turnovers last year, and the offense wasn't great in third-down or red-zone situations. You could make a case that GT was outplayed in five of its wins.
The schedule is a true mixed bag. The Yellow Jackets play three of the top five projected finishers in ACC play, but they also play three of the bottom four.
The home slate is manageable with Duke, Boston College, Louisville and Wake Forest all coming to Atlanta, but the road games will provide challenges. The road opener at Stanford won't be a picnic, either.
With the loss of talent, the coaching turnover and a schedule that provides stiff tests, I think Georgia Tech takes a slight step back this season.
If fewer breaks go its way and the offense is less explosive, the wins will drop. I lean under the win total here, and I like the odds we're getting.
Pick: Georgia Tech Under 6.5 Wins (Lean)
Louisville Cardinals
Win Total: 7.5 (-158o / +128u)
Louisville's 7-1 start was quickly forgotten last season in the midst of a three-game losing streak that saw the Cardinals fall out of contention in the ACC. But you could make the case that Louisville was right on the cusp of greatness in 2025.
Three losses by three points or less derailed some of their preseason goals, but closing the year out with a dominant 41-0 win over rival Kentucky and escaping a late-game comeback by Toledo saw the Cardinals finish 9-4.
It's probably a good thing when your fan base starts to raise its level of expectation from a nine-win season capped by a mid-level bowl victory, and it appears Louisville has reached that point.
This group wants more. Now, can they go out and get it?
There are zero returning quarterbacks who threw a pass for the Cardinals last season, and while there doesn't appear to be much of a competition going into fall camp, maybe there should be.
Lincoln Kienholz transfers in from Ohio State, where he played sparingly over the last few seasons. Davin Wydner also transferred in from West Georgia, slotting in as the backup.
Both are clearly unproven at the Power 4 level, but Kienholz does have some mobility and will have several options at receiver with transfers from Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Florida State and Drake adding explosiveness.
Both Isaac Brown and Keyjuan Brown return in the backfield, so Louisville should once again be explosive on the ground. The addition of proven skill-position players could make this offense really fun — if the QB ends up panning out.
Louisville had an absurd number of penalties and must clean up the procedural presnap operation. The offensive line appears in decent shape despite just one starter returning.
Defensively, Louisville was one of the best teams in the country at preventing explosive plays, surrendering only 14 that went for more than 30 yards all season.
While the Havoc numbers were middling, the coverage unit was excellent, and Louisville excelled on third down defensively.
The defensive front and secondary are being completely rebuilt, so transfers primarily from the P4 level will have to gel together quickly.
The nonconference schedule features two SEC teams, and those games will be tough. ACC league play features seven of the bottom 10 projected finishers in the conference, and the Cardinals do get their three toughest conference opponents (SMU, Florida State, Pitt) at home.
Louisville might be favored in 10 games this season, seven times by more than a field goal.
There's so much responsibility put on the quarterback, and I worry about Kienholz being that guy who helps these guys ascend further.
The SEC games away from home will be difficult, as will trips to NC State and Syracuse. I do lean over the win total, but I'll pass for now due to the number of question marks.
Pick: Pass
Miami Hurricanes
Win Total: 10.5 (-130o / +106u)
Miami remains in a great position heading into 2026. While the roster does turnover some key pieces from last year's National Championship runner-up team, there's plenty to be excited about as the Hurricanes turn the page this season.
Quarterback Darian Mensah transfers in from Duke, where he threw for 3,813 yards and 34 touchdown passes. His move to Coral Gables marks his third school in three years.
He brings with him his favorite pass-catcher in Cooper Barkate, who caught 72 passes for 1,093 yards and seven touchdowns, and will be an exquisite complement to Malachi Toney.
Receivers Cam Vaughn and Vandrevius Jacobs are proven P4 talents, and the tight end room looks really capable and should also help in the run game.
A lack of transfer infusion along the offensive line means it's "next man up," but there are some very talented young guys. I'd expect the O-line to play well once again.
There's no denying the front seven on defense loses significant contributors, as both Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor are gone along the D-line. All four impact linebackers must be replaced, as well.
Portal adds from the Big Ten and SEC should fit in nicely here, and the roster is deep with talented players champing at the bit to get some time on the field.
The losses are likely less impactful here than at other places, but they're certainly still noteworthy.
The secondary should be strong again, but it will be hard to replace a player like Keionte Scott. Doing so would go a long way in keeping this secondary on par with 2025.
The schedule lines up to test this bunch early, as Miami's first three conference games all come on the road, capped off with a trip to Death Valley to take on Clemson on Oct. 3.
The Hurricanes do draw four of the bottom six projected finishers in ACC play, and they avoid Louisville and SMU at the top.
Without question, the most challenging game on the schedule is a trip to South Bend to take on Notre Dame in a spot I'm sure ND has had circled in red ink since the schedules were released.
The schedule draw is very favorable at the end, with three home games in a warm climate against inferior teams. I have Miami as a full two-touchdown favorite in 10 games this season, and favored in 11 overall.
I'm not comfortable going over the win total where it's currently set, as Miami has consistently played down to competition year after year. Last year, it lost two regular-season games it was heavily favored to win.
I think the Notre Dame game will be tough for Miami to win, and losing a stunner to Virginia Tech, Clemson, Florida State or someone else along the way wouldn't shock me.
The ACC is full of mediocre teams, and Miami is still the cream of the crop in this league. The roster has high upside, and Mensah will thrive here. This will be a fun season for The U.
Pick: Pass
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North Carolina Tar Heels
Win Total: 4.5 (-144o / +118u)
North Carolina's program slide continued last season in Year 1 of the Bill Belichick era. The Tar Heels won just four games and have now seen their regular-season win performance drop every year since 2021.
The staff had to scramble to figure out the talent it had on the roster, and it appeared UNC was underprepared week after week.
There was such little consistency on both sides of the ball last year. That showed up in a big way in the opener against TCU, as UNC could hardly achieve a first down or make a tackle.
The run defense improved in the middle of the season before fading down the stretch, and the red-zone defense was actually something to be proud of.
The Tar Heels' stop unit was just put in so many tough situations game after game because the offense couldn't stay on the field and featured very little explosiveness.
UNC ranked 135th in 20-yard plays from scrimmage — worse than UMass, Oklahoma State and Northern Illinois. The Heels ran for more than 150 yards just once against FBS competition.
Billy Edwards Jr. (Wisconsin) and Miles O'Neill (Texas A&M) portal in to battle for the quarterback job, as Max Johnson (Georgia Southern) and Gio Lopez (Wake Forest) have transferred out.
Running back Demon June is someone they can rely on in the backfield, but reliable receivers need to emerge during fall camp.
All five starters on the offensive line — and eight of the 10 on the two-deep — are gone, so identifying the right combination along the O-line is a clear top priority.
The defense has several returning contributors from last year's stop unit, and the Heels added P4 transfers throughout all three levels of the defense that should provide immediate impact.
Defensive coordinator Steve Belichick did a good job with this defense, which improved week-to-week. I believe this defense will keep UNC competitive this season.
North Carolina opens with TCU for the second straight season; this time across the pond in Dublin in Week 0. ETSU and UConn provide nonconference games that are extremely winnable, and it will also host Notre Dame as part of a brutal four-game stretch early on.
North Carolina could be a 'dog in five of its first six games, so a hot start is. A home game against Syracuse is winnable, although I seriously doubt I'll be willing to lay 7.5 in this spot.
This schedule is tough. Seven of UNC's conference games come against the top 11 projected finishers in ACC play. The nonconference schedule also features TCU and Notre Dame.
The win total has been very consistently priced in the preseason despite UNC winning fewer and fewer games each year. This season, the books have appeared to adjust.
I think UNC is in for another year of struggles in Chapel Hill, but the books were smart enough to adjust the win total accordingly.
I'll lean to the under slightly. Until we know what the offense looks like, this team is unplayable week-to-week.
Pick: North Carolina Under 4.5 Wins (Lean)
NC State Wolfpack
Win Total: 6.5 (-172o / +140u)
Dave Doeren has been cemented as the winningest coach in NC State history following an 8-5 season that was capped off by a 31-7 bowl victory over Memphis.
The end of the season was such a bright spot, as the Wolfpack destroyed rival UNC, defeated Florida State and completely dominated Memphis in the bowl game, leading 31-7 at the half.
CJ Bailey returns at quarterback after throwing for 3,105 yards with 25 touchdowns.
Duke Scott averaged 5.5 yards per carry on the ground and will be the leader in the running back room after Hollywood Smothers transferred to Texas.
NC State acquired some exceptional players at receiver and tight end in the portal. The offensive line was average by ACC standards and should be in good shape again this upcoming season.
The defensive line wasn't overly dominant last season, but the Wolfpack picked up a major sack guy in the portal in Tulane's Harvey Dyson, who looks to make an immediate impact here.
The linebacker corps was decimated by graduation and will need a complete overhaul this season. The secondary performed poorly last season, allowing 7.6 yards per attempt and 22 passing touchdowns.
The unit played better at the end of the season, but that's due to the fact that it played against bad passing quarterbacks. A lot of experience returns, along with P4 transfers from Penn State and Georgia, so this unit should improve.
NC State could very well sweep the nonconference portion of its schedule this season, as it catches Vanderbilt in a presumed down year, along with Appalachian State and Richmond.
The ACC schedule lines up well, as NC State catches six of the bottom seven projected finishers in league play while facing only one of the top five.
The Wolfpack avoid Miami, Clemson, SMU and Virginia Tech this season while catching Louisville, Cal and Duke in great situational spots.
The defense may have been a liability last season, but the offense was so explosive and finished in the top third in FBS in 30-, 40- and 50-yard plays.
There are a lot of bad defenses on the schedule, so I like this team to exceed its regular-season win total this season.
NC State has elevated its play over the last five seasons and has achieved bowl eligibility with harder regular-season schedules consistently.
I like the coaching continuity, a returning star at quarterback and a schedule conducive to racking up wins. I'm in on the over for an official play.
Pick: NC State Over 6.5 Wins (Official Play)
Pitt Panthers
Win Total: 7.5 (-144o / +118u)
Pat Narduzzi enters season No. 12 for the Panthers after improving their regular-season performance in each of the last three years, capped by an 8-4 regular season that was led by its defensive front seven.
Pitt held seven opponents under 100 yards rushing while registering 31 sacks and 100 tackles for loss. That pressure forced opponents into 21 turnovers.
The linebacker room was fantastic, as all three "sharks" combined for 262 tackles on the season.
One issue was that the defense appeared to take plays off after accruing a big lead. Some of that apathy allowed some opponents to mount big comebacks.
We saw this against WVU in the Backyard Brawl and again following the bye week, where Pitt blew a three-touchdown lead at home against Louisville.
The offense was the biggest issue all season, as Pitt rotated three different quarterbacks before settling on Mason Heintschel, who returns in 2026.
The Panthers allowed way too many sacks and negative plays, and the offensive line was also poor in run blocking. That gave the offense consistent unfavorable downs and distances.
Pitt was one of the worst teams in the entire country when it came to allowing Havoc, and the turnovers really piled up at the worst times. Non-competitive losses to Notre Dame and Miami revealed that Pitt still has a long way to go to get back to being taken seriously as a contender in the ACC.
A returning quarterback is a step in the right direction, and Heintschel should be more comfortable in his second year in the system.
The skill positions see plenty of talent depart, and transfers from the FCS and G5 levels will be serviceable, but don't scream "gamebreaker."
Everything hinges on the performance of the offensive line, which was so bad last year. That unit has to get better, or the Panthers will struggle once again.
Defensively, the additions in the front seven are serviceable, but I wasn't wowed by anyone added.
The return of Braylan Lovelace will boost the linebacker group, and he should make those around him better. The secondary rotated a ton of guys last season, so the second platoon will likely just slot up and receive more reps this season.
The schedule is a mixed bag, as Pitt plays four of the top six projected finishers in the ACC, along with four of the bottom six. The nonconference schedule isn't overly difficult, but I think UCF has improved and can give Pitt a game.
Syracuse and Virginia Tech should be better than anticipated, and road games at Miami, Louisville and Cal will also be challenging.
I'm passing on the win total this season, as I don't think Pitt has enough consistency to be a high-achieving bunch this season. However, it could be favored in eight games. I lean under.
Pick: Pitt Under 7.5 Wins (Lean)
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SMU Mustangs
Win Total: 8.5 (-140o / +114u)
SMU had so many chances to be great last season and firmly validate that its run to the ACC Championship and College Football Playoff in 2024 was no fluke.
However, the season took a tough turn early when star quarterback Kevin Jennings was hurt at the end of the Baylor game. While he played through it against Missouri State and TCU, he wasn't the same player for much of the season.
His rushing production, which dazzled during the 2024 season, was nowhere to be found, and turnovers were up.
Penalties were also a major problem, as SMU was the most heavily penalized group at the Power 4 level last season.
The defense excelled at creating Havoc and generating third-down stops, but this group struggled when it game to allowing explosive plays. That directly cost it games against Baylor, TCU and Cal.
Jennings returns in 2026 and will be one of the best quarterbacks in the ACC this season, although a reliable running back will need to emerge.
There's some decent returning talent at receiver, and Yannick Smith portalling in from East Carolina will fit right in here. Tight end RJ Maryland should also have a monster year in this offense.
The tight end room could be the best in the ACC this season if used appropriately. I would operate out of 22 personnel at times inside the red zone if I were calling plays.
SMU saw 12 different players along the defensive line play significant snaps last season, and eight of those players have departed. G5 transfers look to fill the void, but there's a chance the front takes a step back.
The back seven appears to be in good shape, and if the secondary is anything like last year's ball-hawking unit that registered 18 interceptions, SMU will be just fine in pass coverage.
Special teams-wise, there's not an experienced kicker on the roster, which is something to watch.
SMU should put up a 2-1 record in the nonconference portion of its schedule with two lighter opponents and a visit to the Cathedral to take on Notre Dame in a likely loss.
The Ponies pull the bottom five projected finishers in ACC play and avoid Miami and Clemson.
SMU will, in all likelihood, be favored in 10 games this upcoming season, but the trick will be navigating the two early road tests at Florida State and Louisville. If they do that, a 10-win season is very much on the table.
A healthy Jennings should add more to the run game, and SMU might rely on his heroics if an explosive back doesn't emerge in fall camp.
This bunch will be favored by nearly a touchdown in every ACC game after Week 3, so we should know right away if this team is vying for a conference title early on.
The left side of the offensive line is a mystery, and the Ponies have to shore that up. They have focused heavily on the O-line since migrating to the ACC, and we'll know early if they're good enough in the trenches.
I lean over, but if Jennings gets hurt again like he did last year, the drop-off to the backup QB is monumental. For that reason, this will remain a lean and not an official play.
Pick: SMU Over 8.5 Wins (Lean)
Stanford Cardinal
Win Total: 3.5 (-128o / +104u)
It's stunning to think that Stanford hasn't won more than four games in a season since 2018, when it was coached by David Shaw.
It has been such a struggle to attract and retain talented players on the Farm, and the coaching situation hasn't been conducive to Stanford getting back to being a major player at the FBS level.
The Cardinal's move to the ACC hasn't gone well thus far. More taxing travel and few regional opponents has really taken a toll on this program, which is left searching for answers after its latest coaching hire failed to pan out.
In comes new head coach Tavita Pritchard, who was a position coach and offensive coordinator in Palo Alto for 10 years before a stint in the NFL.
There are going to be key position battles in the skill-position rooms, and weapons need to emerge, especially after tight end Sam Roush left for the NFL.
Davis Warren comes in at quarterback from Michigan and will compete with former UCF transfer Dylan Rizk. QB improvement is expected after the previous signal-callers were indecisive and took too many sacks.
The offensive line appears to have plenty of continuity and has to be more effective when establishing the run.
The defense returns a half-dozen starters from a unit that wasn't all that bad last season. Stanford was solid against the run most of the season, surrendering more than 200 rushing yards and/or 5.0 yards per carry only once on different occasions.
The red-zone defense was exquisite. The Cardinal turned opponents away without points 14 times and forced field goals on another 16 occasions. There are pieces to build on.
Stanford should be better this season than the team that finished 4-8 last year and should have won two other contests.
The win total is once again low, and for good reason.
The Trees face four of the top five projected finishers in ACC play and are projected to be underdogs in 10 games. They will be decided favorites only over FCS Elon and should figure to be laying 4-5 points while hosting Hawaii in Week 0.
The home slate is tough in ACC play, and five cross-country road trips won't help matters. I figure this team could be nearly a touchdown better than last year's bunch, but it can be tough to project straight-up wins.
Duke, Georgia Tech and Wake Forest should regress from last season, and Stanford will likely need to win two of those games as an underdog in order to exceed its win total this season.
I think three wins is the floor here, and 4-5 isn't out of the question. I lean over, but I'm not in love with the play, so it remains a lean unless it drops to a flat 3.
Pick: Stanford Over 3.5 Wins (Lean · Would Play Over 3)
Syracuse Orange
Win Total: 4.5 (-110o / -110u)
Syracuse wasn't nearly as bad as it played last season following the loss of quarterback Steve Angeli after four games due to injury.
The Orange guys hung with Tennessee for three quarters, had a great comeback win at home against UConn, and upset Clemson on the road.
Rickie Collins just wasn't an effective FBS quarterback, and the Orange had to resort to using a converted lacrosse player under center for half the season.
Cuse never saw its offense produce a 200-yard rushing output, and it sat outside the top 100 in FBS on third downs. The explosiveness suffered, as the Orange finished just 108th nationally in registering chunk plays on offense.
The defense couldn't stop the run and wore down as the season went on. The secondary didn't help matters, giving up 23 touchdown passes compared to just five interceptions.
The Orange did pick up some third-down stops, but the offense consistently put the defense in bad situations.
Angeli returns this season, and Syracuse plucked some nice contributors at running back and wide receiver from the FCS and G5 ranks.
If the Orange could ever develop their young tight ends, they would have such an offensive advantage in this conference, as they have athletic, big-framed bodies in that room who could create excellent mismatches.
The offensive line gave up so many sacks last season, but they should be forgiven a bit due to the inexperience at quarterback. There are also some nice transfer additions here.
Syracuse didn't generate enough pressure from the front seven, which experienced a significant overhaul, particularly along the defensive line.
Portal adds from UNLV, Maryland and Georgia State should bolster what's left, and Syracuse will be strong at linebacker.
The secondary returns four players who played significant snaps in 2025 and added some decent G5 talent.
I like what Fran Brown is building at Syracuse, and the defensive coordinator hire of Vince Kehres from Toledo should make the defense stronger.
The schedule draw was favorable, as Syracuse gets four of the bottom six in ACC play and two nonconference games it'll be a double-digit favorite in.
Ultimately, I don't think Syracuse is nearly as bad as how it's being projected in the preseason. I think there's a real chance the Orange flirt with bowl eligibility after the talent infusion and key coaching hires.
If it catches more than a touchdown against Pitt, Virginia, UNC and NC State, I'll seek to back Syracuse against the spread. It also has UVA, Louisville, Clemson and NC State in great scheduling spots.
I have a strong lean to the over on the win total.
Pick: Syracuse Over 4.5 Wins (Lean)
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Virginia Cavaliers
Win Total: 7.5 (-142o / +116u)
What a fun ride it was last year. I had a 200-1 ticket on Virginia to win the ACC, and we came so close.
This team consistently found ways to overcome adversity and won 9-of-10 down the stretch. This marked the first 11-win season in the history of Virginia football, so Tony Elliott and the Wahoos have a ton of momentum coming into 2026.
Beau Pribula and Eli Holstein transfer in to battle it out at quarterback, providing consistency to the position after the departure of Chandler Morris.
I love the skill-position adds at running back and wide receiver. UVA should be just fine with the offensive explosiveness that will likely increase.
The offensive line is a concern, as there are a couple of missing pieces. It could be hard to expect this group to play as well as last season.
Virginia does have a couple of guys returning from last year's starting O-line, and there are several players in the two-deep to be excited about.
The defense was such a catalyst for UVA last season, forcing 24 turnovers, allowing a third-down conversion rate of just 28% and holding opponents to 21 points or fewer 10 times last year.
There are major holes to fill at all three levels, but UVA did rotate a ton of guys last season, with 16 players playing significant snap counts just in the front seven.
Five transfers along the defensive line will have a chance to make an immediate impact, and the sack numbers should remain high.
Linebacker is more of a mystery, but young players are going to get more snaps — something the Hoos were forced to do last season anyway due to injury.
The secondary sees most of its production depart from last year and will once again rely on transfers and those from the second platoon.
UVA has a manageable nonconference schedule that will give it opportunities for three wins. The Cavaliers also avoid Miami, Clemson and Louisville in ACC play.
Six of the league opponents reside in the bottom eight of my projected ACC finishers, but their three toughest league games are all on the road with trips to Florida State, SMU and Virginia Tech.
This win total is spot on, in my opinion.
The opener against NC State is a true coin-flip, and the defensive front will get an early test in playing assignment football when they square off against West Virginia.
Several ACC opponents will test the UVA secondary, so an effective pass rush will really help this team when it comes to piling up the wins.
I could see Virginia stepping up and defeating Florida State or SMU on the road, but I could also see it dropping a conference game or two at home. Any record with 6-9 wins appears possible and wouldn't surprise me.
For that reason, I'm passing on Virginia's win total this season.
Pick: Pass
Virginia Tech Hokies
Win Total: 6.5 (-150o / +122u)
Virginia Tech had such a down season in 2025, which summed up Brent Pry's head coaching tenure in Blacksburg quite well.
The Hokies never obtained momentum and haven't had a winning regular season in five years.
They competed hard in a neutral-site opener against South Carolina but blew a double-digit lead against Vanderbilt the following week, resulting in a three-touchdown blowout loss at home. The very next week, Virginia Tech got blown out at home by Old Dominion, and Pry was told to hit the road, being replaced by Philip Montgomery on an interim basis.
A poor situation turned out OK, as the Hokies swooped in to hire former Penn State head coach James Franklin to inject life back into the program.
In a move that's somewhat unprecedented, Franklin brought Pry back on staff as the defensive coordinator while retaining a few other position coaches. The staff looks good, and the incoming recruiting class gives plenty of reasons to be excited in Blacksburg this season.
Ethan Grunkemeyer transfers in from Penn State, where he played much more than expected due to an injury to Drew Allar last season.
It's not a "wow" move, but it gives some insight as to the style of play we can expect to see from VT this upcoming season.
Bill Davis comes in from Louisiana and should be the leader in the running backs room.
Several receivers also portal in and join Ayden Greene and Takye Heath to make up a fairly talented receiver room.
Two big-bodied tight ends — Luke Reynolds and Matt Henderson — transfer in from Penn State to form an area where VA Tech has some athletic talent. I expect a lot of versatile usage out of the tight ends this season.
Four members of the offensive line also return, so I expect the sack numbers to improve.
There are some departures along the defensive line, which underwhelmed last season, but three of Franklin's former players portal in, along with players from Missouri and Ohio State.
The linebacker group loses two of its top players but also sees some talented players transfer in.
I like the talent in the secondary and would be stunned if the pass defense numbers and turnovers didn't improve significantly.
The nonconference schedule will give VT opportunities for wins, as the Hokies will be heavily favored in two of the three matchups.
The conference slate is mixed. Tech draws the bottom two projected finishers in ACC play in Boston College and Stanford, but also draws three of the top four in Miami, SMU and Clemson, all of which come on the road.
Add in a cross-country trip to Cal, and the conference road slate looks tricky to navigate.
Virginia Tech should be favored in every home game this season and nine games overall, although many of those will be close, competitive contests.
I lean over on the win total, although wins will have to pile up quickly because the closing stretch of this schedule is tough.
I'm not in love with the quarterback situation, and many players in the backfield are unproven. Franklin should get this turned around quickly, but I'm not sure the Hokies are competing to win the ACC quite yet.
It should be a fun year in Blacksburg.
Pick: Virginia Tech Over 6.5 Wins (Lean)
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Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Win Total: 5.5 (-120o / -102u)
Jake Dickert certainly made the most of his first season in Winston-Salem, largely exceeding preseason expectations and becoming the winningest first-year coach in the history of this storied program.
Wake might have even left a little meat on the bone, as the Demon Deacons held touchdown leads in the second half of a couple of those losses.
A Duke's Mayo Bowl victory over SEC foe Mississippi State capped off a nine-win campaign. Now, the challenge becomes reloading the roster and running it back.
Quarterback Gio Lopez comes over from UNC, and his struggles last season were well documented. Lopez's dual-threat ability that flashed at South Alabama was never unlocked in Chapel Hill, but given how Robby Ashford led the charge last season, I expect to see more running from the mobile QB.
There are plenty of position battles expected in the skill-position rooms offensively. The offensive line will also have to replace four starters from a group that did an excellent job of limiting sacks and negative plays a year ago.
Defensively, Wake Forest looks pretty shored up. Plenty of production from the two-deep returns, and the transfers added via the portal should keep this unit on par with last year's bunch.
The schedule stiffens a bit, as Wake draws three of the top four projected finishers in ACC play while plucking only one of the bottom three.
The Deacs will likely be underdogs in every conference road game this season, and the Week 2 date against Purdue in West Lafayette is far from a guaranteed win.
Last year, Wake had to leave the Southeast just once. This year, that number jumps up to three.
Wake Forest led all Power 4 teams in 50-plus yard plays last season but ranked just 94th in total red-zone trips. The Deacs struggled mightily when it came to converting those opportunities into touchdowns.
I don't think we'll see as much explosiveness out of this group, which will be a problem against the opponents on their schedule this season. That should impact them in the win/loss column.
Wake must also clean up procedural penalties, as the Deacs were the eighth-most penalized team in the country last season.
This team overperformed last season, but with a tougher schedule, more difficult travel and some metrics pointing toward regression, I like the under on its regular-season win total.
Even with penciling coin-flip games against Duke and Virginia as wins, I still can't get to a point where WF exceeds 6.5 wins. I played this one early, as it's hard to envision WF achieving seven or more wins this season.
Pick: Wake Forest Under 6.5 Wins (-190 at DraftKings · Official Play)
