Sportsbooks have been making waves this March, with several prominent shops dropping Power 4 regular-season win totals for the upcoming 2026 college football season.
With just the one predominant transfer portal window having come and gone, we're starting to get a clearer picture of what these teams are going to look like when August rolls around.
Schedules have been finalized, and conference realignment appears complete… for now. The betting market is taking shape with these win totals, and there are several valuable positions that I have already locked in.
The regular-season wins market is my favorite of the derivative markets to bet on in any sport. I love the minutia of diving into rosters, looking at schedules, identifying tough spots and finding value in these markets.
I also love the action provided all season long when making this type of wager. You get a sweat on all 12 games a team plays and can remain objective throughout the season, as opposed to a more knee-jerk approach when wagering week-to-week.
If you can find a win total that's a full victory off, you have struck gold. For what it's worth, I generally value a half-win at a price of about 60 cents.
As always, shop around and find the best win totals at the best prices. Don’t lay -190 on a win total when -160 is available, and don’t take over 8 wins when over 7.5 wins may be priced as the better bet.
Now, let's dive into my college football win totals and my NCAAF picks for the 2026 regular season.
Vanderbilt Commodores Under 6.5 (-150)
Vanderbilt has the least returning production of any team at the Power 4 level and will no longer be a squad that catches its opponents by surprise.
The key task for the offense will be replacing the electric Diego Pavia, who played such a huge role in transforming Vanderbilt from an SEC bottom-feeder to a team vying for a conference title.
Pavia delivered swagger, poise in the pocket and playmaking ability at the quarterback position that Vanderbilt hadn’t had in a long time. Replacing his leadership and dual-threat nature won't be easy.
Two of the top three receivers are gone, but Ja’Cory Thomas transfers in from Old Dominion, where he snagged 41 passes for 719 yards and five scores in 2025.
Eli Stowers also departs at tight end. That's big because he was such a pressure relief outlet for Pavia in key situations this past fall.
Cole Spence certainly looks the part in trying to replace the production lost at tight end from a pass-catching perspective, and he has the physical attributes to create mismatches against linebackers in this league.
The offensive line loses four seniors who started last season, and the continuity and production along the line will be tough to replace.
Head coach Clark Lea called this O-line the best he has ever coached while at Vanderbilt, so a drop in production is to be expected when it comes to replacing the starting left tackle, center and entire right side.
The defensive line is in a complete rebuild, as four of the top five tacklers are gone, along with two other rotational players.
Linebacker appears to be a position of strength for Vanderbilt, but the back end is going to have to retool quickly, with four of the top five departing.
Transfers from Clemson, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M could plug some holes in the secondary, but this unit is going to have to gel together quickly. The special teams units remain largely intact.
Some of the most important work I do when assessing regular-season wins comes via schedule analysis.
Vandy opens with eight straight games before a bye week on Oct. 31. A home date with NC State highlights the nonconference schedule that also includes FCS Austin Peay and CUSA’s Delaware.
Back-to-back road trips at Auburn and Georgia precede two tough home dates with Ole Miss and Arkansas. This brutal eight-game stretch concludes with a trip to Kentucky.
Vandy could be a sizeable underdog in four of its first five conference games.
After the bye week, a road trip to Starkville awaits. While the Commodores have a decided rest advantage, MSU will be off three brutal conference games against LSU, Oklahoma and Texas, and will surely be starving for a conference win.
The season concludes with games against Alabama at home, a road game against Florida at “The Swamp” and the season finale against Tennessee. These are three spots where Vandy is likely a touchdown 'dog or more to end the season.
Five SEC road games are going to be tough enough to navigate, but factor in the lost production, and this looks like a season where Vanderbilt takes a step back.
I have the Commodores as a 'dog in eight games, meaning they'll need to pull three upsets in order to exceed their win total. I'm in on the under.
Pick: Vanderbilt Under 6.5 Wins (-150)
Cincinnati Bearcats Under 5.5 (+108)
Cincinnati found itself cruising to a 7-1 start in 2025 behind the arm of Brendan Sorsby, who posted a 20:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio during that stretch.
The rubber met the road in the last half of the schedule, however, and Cincinnati didn't win another game after Oct. 25.
The defense couldn't make stops late in the season, and the front seven was shredded on the ground, allowing 240 or more rushing yards to four of its last five opponents.
Sorsby departed for Texas Tech, leaving the Bearcats to turn to either Ivy League transfer Liam O’Brien or journeyman JC French IV, who comes over from Georgia Southern.
Needless to say, a downgrade is expected.
The running back room is completely bare, with five of the top six ball-carriers gone, as is the receiver room, which saw its top five pass-catchers from last year vacate the premises.
Finding explosiveness out of the backs and receivers is going to be crucial for Cincinnati, particularly if French earns the starting quarterback role.
He held onto the rock way too long last year and took 30 sacks but also bailed from the pocket and gave up on the pass progression much earlier than necessary on multiple occasions while at Georgia Southern.
The offensive line looks to be in decent shape, although Cincinnati will be replacing its starting center and right tackle.
With a run game sure to take a step back and a stop-gap quarterback who has a propensity to panic and bail from the pocket, it's safe to assume the sack numbers will increase significantly.
The defense was such a liability game after game, but the problems were masked by the offense winning games, so nobody talked about it.
The front gave up nearly 4.5 yards per carry last season, and pass coverage appeared to be optional at times in the secondary. Cincinnati gave up 20 touchdown passes, compared to just two total team interceptions.
Four of the top defensive backs are gone, so the Bearcats will have to rely on MAC transfers to fill the void.
Leading sack man Jake Golday is also gone. The defensive line loses nine of the top 12 contributors, as this unit returns a combined 22 tackles from last season.
The special teams unit returns nearly intact, but Cincinnati will have to replace a very reliable kicker in Stephen Rusnak, who made 13-of-17 field goals from last season.
The schedule features the home opener against Boston College, followed by FCS Western Carolina and a neutral-site home game against in-state foe Miami (OH) in an NFL stadium.
Cincinnati draws perhaps the toughest Big 12 schedule this season, with five road games and matchups against six of the projected top seven teams in Big 12 league play.
The Bearcats are likely going to be 'dogs in at least seven conference games this season, including:
- at Arizona, Oct. 3rd
- vs. Texas Tech, Oct. 24th
- vs. Utah, Oct. 31st
- at Houston, Nov. 7th
- at Iowa State, Nov. 14th
- at BYU, Nov. 28th
The end of the schedule is brutal, and there's a chance the season goes sideways well before a winnable trip to Ames and Colorado coming to town.
There's too much lost production on both sides of the ball and not enough playmakers to replace the explosiveness this offense had last season. I don't have Cincinnati making a bowl game this season.
Pick: Cincinnati Under 5.5 Wins (+108)
Wake Forest Demon Deacons Under 6.5 (-115)
To say that last season went about as well as expected for Wake Forest would be an understatement.
Head coach Jake Dickert won more games in his first year in Winston-Salem than anyone else ever had before. The Demon Deacons showed tremendous defensive resolve, winning low-scoring games against SMU and UVA in the middle of the season.
A Duke's Mayo Bowl victory over Mississippi State capped the nine-win season while providing positive momentum heading into 2026.
The biggest offensive challenge for Wake Forest will be rebuilding an offensive line that loses four of its five starters from a group that allowed just 17 sacks and paved the way for Demond Claiborne to run for 907 yards.
Ryan Berger comes in from Oregon State and will likely fill one of the interior guard positions, but replacing both tackle positions and starting center won't be easy for Wake.
This was a team that struggled to run the ball at times throughout the year, and with Claiborne moving on, Wake will need to find a consistent ball-carrier out of the backfield.
Nine of the top 11 receivers are also gone, so Wake Forest is really going to have to get creative when it comes to finding offensive explosiveness and consistent playmaking at the skill positions.
Quarterback Gio Lopez comes over from UNC after a disastrous 2025 season with the Tar Heels.
Lopez struggled in the ACC and was never consistent enough in hitting downfield targets. As a result, the explosive passing game we saw from him at South Alabama never materialized.
Lopez was also significantly less effective as a runner in the ACC. Wake ran quarterback Robbie Ashford a ton last season, and he was second on the team in carries, yards and rushing touchdowns.
A key for Wake’s offense taking a step forward despite plenty of lost production will be reinvigorating Lopez as a dual-threat quarterback.
The defense actually is in pretty good shape, as a majority of the defensive line production returns, along with two of the top four linebackers.
There's a ton of depth in the front seven, although much of it is unproven. If young guys can grasp the 4-2-5 system quickly, we're likely looking at another strong Wake Forest front.
The secondary will have to replace three graduating seniors from a group that recorded only four interceptions as a team last year.
Wake had a consistently stout pass defense with physical cornerbacks. Brian Blades II comes in from FIU to shore up one of those positions, but the production departing is significant.
With the five-man secondary used in the scheme, this is one area that will have to be developed quickly for Wake Forest to be competitive in the ACC this season.
The schedule is tough early, with a road trip to Big Ten foe Purdue following the season opener at home against Akron.
Conference play gets started early with a tough two-game stretch, hosting Miami followed by a road trip to Louisville.
The Deacs host Stanford, which should be improved this season, and back-to-back road trips at NC State and Cal will likely see Wake listed as a 3.5-point 'dog or higher.
Virginia comes to town following the bye week, but another set of back-to-back road trips at SMU and Georgia Tech will likely see the Deacs listed as underdogs once again.
WF defeated SMU and nearly upset GT last season, so I'm sure neither of those teams will overlook Wake this time around.
Hosting Duke in the season finale caps off a tough conference slate, which pits the Deacs against seven of the projected top 10 teams in ACC play.
There's a real chance that Wake Forest starts the season 1-3 and potentially 2-5 before the bye week. You could make an argument that the Deacs will be lined as underdogs in every road game this season.
Plus, with home games against Miami, Virginia and Duke, this schedule suddenly looks a lot tougher than it did at surface level.
Lopez struggled last year behind a patchwork offensive line, and Wake won't have a ton of experienced playmakers for him to distribute the ball to.
I think the offense takes a step back, and this year ends up being about fighting, clawing and scratching your way to bowl eligibility. I think 6-6 is a very generous outlook for Wake Forest.
Pick: Wake Forest Under 6.5 (-115)
