The Air Force Falcons take on the UNLV Rebels in Las Vegas, NV. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
UNLV is favored by -6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -250. The total is set at 64.5 points.
Here’s my Air Force vs. UNLV predictions and college football picks for Saturday, October 11, 2025.
Air Force vs UNLV Prediction
- Air Force vs. UNLV Pick: Over 64.5
My UNLV vs. Air Force best bet is on the over. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Air Force vs UNLV Odds
| Air Force Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 64.5 -110o / -110u | +205 |
| UNLV Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 64.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
- Air Force vs UNLV point spread: UNLV -6.5
- Air Force vs UNLV over/under: 64.5 points
- Air Force vs UNLV moneyline: Air Force +205, UNLV -250
Air Force vs UNLV Preview
Air Force Falcons Betting Preview: Passing Attack Picking Up
Air Force has found itself in competitive, high-scoring games all season, and the Flyboys have found resurgence in their passing game behind the arm of quarterback Liam Szarka.
The sophomore signal caller has completed 65% of his passes for 850 yards and seven touchdowns, while averaging 13.1 yards per attempt. This passing attack has been a key element added into the triple-option attack we've come to know and love from Air Force.
The ground game has been serviceable, but it's not quite what we've become accustomed to from the traditionally run-heavy Falcons.
Szarka has done well on the ground this season, but the rest of the backs lack explosiveness and power. That means Air Force has had to rely more heavily on explosive plays in the passing game in order to score points.
Defensively, this group is a mess. Air Force is giving up 7.7 yards per play and over five yards per carry on the ground. The Falcons haven't been good situationally and struggle to get off the field on third down or in the red zone.
PFF ranks the Air Force secondary as the worst coverage unit in the conference, and it’s not hard to see why. What was once dubbed as the “no fly zone," this secondary is now allowing 71% completions and has given up 314 yards per game on average.
Air Force still has plenty of winnable games on the schedule, but for this team to get on the right side of these close affairs, it has to see improvement defensively.
UNLV Rebels Betting Preview: Lots of Defensive Problems
UNLV also has its fair share of defensive issues, as the Rebels are giving up six yards per play and allow far too much success on early downs.
UNLV has been a little better against the pass in recent weeks, but it's still given up a lot of yards through the air against three very weak passing offenses in UCLA, Miami (OH) and Wyoming.
The weather played a factor last week against Wyoming, as the UNLV offense was limited to just 255 total yards and 3.9 yards per carry on the ground.
Quarterback Anthony Colandrea struggled throwing the ball in the elements and also was limited with his ground production (32 yards rushing on 11 carries).
Two blocked punts were returned for touchdowns and another Wyoming turnover set up a field goal.
Air Force vs UNLV Pick, Betting Analysis
This total opened at 67.5 on Sunday afternoon and was bet up to 68.5. However, it's since been bet down significantly.
I don’t agree with the move, and I'm playing the over.
Air Force has found something with its passing game, which has taken a ton of pressure off this offense, one that's sputtered on the ground at times.
We shouldn’t see the ground game sputter against a UNLV front that's 120th nationally in Defensive Rush Play Explosiveness given up and grades out as the fourth-worst run defense unit in the Mountain West.
UNLV has been particularly bad on early downs, where it ranks 117th nationally in EPA Per Rush allowed and 110th in Early Down Success Rate.
UNLV is also the second-worst tackling team in the Mountain West, per PFF. Missed tackles and broken tackles created by Air Force running backs will allow for more explosive chunk plays from this offense, something that's been missing.
UNLV will have much more success this week offensively, as it's back in the comfort of Allegiant Stadium.
Lining up against the Falcons' defense won’t hurt either. The Falcons grade out as the second-worst overall defensive unit in the conference, per PFF, and are the worst coverage unit by a wide margin.
I would expect Colandrea to make plays with his legs and for this ground attack — with Jai'Den Thomas — to gash the Air Force defensive front.
When UNLV takes deep shots down field, it'll connect against a secondary that ranks 111th nationally in Pass Play Success Rate Allowed and 136th in Passing Down Explosives given up.
Neither one of these defenses are very good. We should see a game with plenty of explosives and scoring chances.
Air Force is finding the red zone a ton this season and has cashed in for touchdowns 79% of the time. The Falcons have to score touchdowns to stay in games and have been calling plays accordingly in the red zone.
UNLV had significant red zone issues last season, but its production has improved this season.
I expect sound execution situationally and a ton of points to be scored by both teams.
Pick: Over 64.5
