Arizona vs. Hawaii Weather: Windy Forecast Impacting Betting Odds

Arizona vs. Hawaii Weather: Windy Forecast Impacting Betting Odds article feature image
Credit:

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Aloha Stadium.

  • Hot, windy weather is expected for Saturday's Arizona Wildcats vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors college football matchup.
  • We examine how this unique weather has affected past college football games, and how bettors should approach this matchup.

On Saturday night, college football bettors will be eager to watch Arizona take on Hawaii on the island of Oahu, marking just the second game of the 2019 season.

There should be a short gap between the end of the Florida-Miami game and the start of this one to go to the bathroom, get some food … perhaps some more White Claw seltzers. Back to business after that, though.

And unlike tonight’s first game, a windy forecast for Arizona vs. Hawaii is impacting betting odds for this Week 0 matchup.

Arizona Wildcats vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Betting Odds

  • Spread: Arizona -11
  • Over/Under: 71
  • Kickoff: 10:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS Sports Network


You know what they say about Hawaii … it’s the most sought-after postal route of them all. The air is so dewy-sweet that you don’t even have to lick the stamps. That air is going to be moving at a brisk pace though, which is something bettors need to know.

The weather forecast is calling for double-digit winds, currently projected right around 14 mph sustained for the duration of the game. Gusts will be whipping at 30 mph, which is strong enough to blow cursed evil tiki necklaces right off the shoulders of spectators.

Per Bet Labs, unders have gone 1058-890-27 (54.3%) historically in college football games with winds of 10+ mph. Plenty of points are expected to be scored in this game though, as the total opened at 70 and is up to 74 at most books.

However, perhaps with the forecast in mind, sharp action came in on the under on Wednesday night, dropping the total down from its peak of 74.5.

Also favoring the under is the fact that Collin Wilson mentioned, “People don’t realize Hawaii has a slow-paced offense,” during a conference call Thursday morning when referencing his under 74 pick. When it comes to actual analysis of the teams, you’re definitely going to want to pay heed to Collin’s advice.

Though the view from 10,000 feet would suggest that taking the under is a great choice, there are a few reasons why it isn’t a slam dunk compared to some other windy situations.

Here are some more 10+ mph wind trends that don’t bode well for under bettors in this game.

  • Hawaii home games: 9-14 (39.1%)
  • Everywhere else: 1049-876-27 (54.5%)

This one probably shouldn’t be looked into too deeply considering the small sample size. Though Aloha Stadium hasn’t been friendly to windy under bettors in this 23-game sample, it’s quite possible they’d be profitable if we check back in another decade or so.

  • Temps of 70+: 308-304-6 (50.3%)
  • Temps <70: 750-586-21 (56.1%)

Perhaps one reason why Hawaiian windy unders haven’t done well is because of the tropical environment. Every game with 10+ mph winds at Aloha Stadium has also been warmer than 70 degrees, including Saturday’s game, which is expected to be in the mid-to-low 80s.

Historically, warm and windy games haven’t had the same edge that cooler games do. It’s the stereotypical fall conditions that are optimal for betting windy unders.

  • Totals <70: 1007-834-26 (54.7%)
  • Totals of 70+: 51-56-1 (47.7%)

One last little trend to note is that high-total windy games have actually gone over more than they’ve gone under. If the oddsmakers think that the two teams are capable of scoring more than 70 points, a little wind hasn’t been able to stop them.

Note that this is also a fairly small sample compared to the entire set of data.

These mini trends aren’t something I love to see, but I have jumped on board with Collin and taken the under myself. Here’s to a profitable season of betting on the weather.