College Football Odds, Picks for Arkansas State vs Troy

The year started off miserably for Arkansas State, which lost its first two games by a combined score of 110-3. Troy also started off on a bad foot, dropping its first two games against FBS opponents.

But the turnarounds have begun for each team. The Trojans have picked up a pair of victories, and Arkansas State has turned to true freshman quarterback Jaylen Raynor at quarterback and has won three in a row.

The handicap is a bit difficult because of Raynor. The Red Wolves look like a brand-new team with his precocious talent now under center.

What value can we find in a matchup between the league’s defending champion and one of the projected cellar-dwellers? Let's dive into the Arkansas State vs. Troy odds and make a prediction and pick in the college football betting preview for Saturday, Oct. 7.

After two miserable seasons to open the Butch Jones era, Arkansas State hoped to turn things around in 2023. It got its doors blown off by Oklahoma and Memphis, making Jones turn to Raynor halfway through Week 3 against FCS Stony Brook.

The difference has been night and day.

In the first two losses, the Red Wolves finished with the ninth-percentile EPA/Play and then a first-percentile effort. Skipping to Raynor’s first full game in Week 4, they notched a 64th-percentile and then a 95th-percentile effort. Yes, the scheduling matters, but we're talking about a literally incompetent offense upgraded to a good one.

Raynor has been unbelievable. He's only a few months from senior prom, and yet he just accounted for 11 touchdowns in the past two weeks.

He has brought a dynamic quarterback run game to the offense. JT Shrout and Jaxon Dailey combined for 41 yards on the ground (without removing sack yards) in their 2.5 games at the helm; Raynor has already contributed 226 at 6.8 yards per carry.

He has also elevated the passing game.

• Weeks 1 and 2 combined explosive pass plays for the Red Wolves: Two.
• Weeks 3 and 4 combined: Nine.

This is a brand-new ball club. Is it the '99 Rams? No. But is it a competent Group of Five offense with Raynor and a quarterback rush attack that keeps defenses honest and a solid wide receiver group? Absolutely.

Unfortunately, while Raynor is a budding star, he's no Travis Hunter. He can’t help out the miserable Arkansas State defense. This is one of the most forgiving defenses in FBS, ranking 118th in Success Rate.

It's middle of the pack in stopping explosive plays, ranking 59th, but Troy has a solid big-play offense. The Red Wolves bend and break, ranking 116th in limiting Points Per Opportunity.

Linebacker Melique Straker is a stud, and the coverage actually gets a shiny number from PFF’s subjective graders, but this is not a good unit.

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The reigning Sun Belt champs came up short in their two toughest games of the year in Weeks 2 and 3, falling to Kansas State and James Madison. But they rebounded to beat solid Western Kentucky and Georgia State outfits in the past two weeks.

A year after Jon Sumrall fielded one of the most lopsided teams outside of the state of Iowa, his squad is finding a new balance this year. Last year’s Troy team finished seventh in defensive SP+ and 106th on offense. This year, those numbers are creeping closer, with a ranking of 35th on defense (still good for G5!) and 84th on offense.

The offensive improvement has been driven by running back Kimani Vidal’s improvement and more explosives in the passing game. Vidal is averaging 5.7 yards per carry and already has 590 yards on the young season.

But the offense’s calling card is explosive pass plays from Gunnar Watson, particularly to stud receiver Chris Lewis. The team doesn’t rely much on efficiency, ranking only 108th in Success Rate, but it should be able to find good down-to-down consistency against an Arkansas State that's very generous. In addition, the Trojans will find the big play, as they rank ninth in explosives.

The defense has slipped from last year’s highs; this is not a top-10 unit anymore. While the Trojans did return a few stars like cornerback Reddy Steward and edge rushers Richard Jibunor and TJ Jackson, they lost a bunch of contributors and coordinator Shiel Wood.

They are middle of the FBS pack in most metrics and a worrisome 91st in Finishing Drives Allowed.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Arkansas State and Troy match up statistically:

Arkansas State Offense vs. Troy Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	104	40
Line Yards	78	9
Pass Success	100	45
Havoc	51	62
Finishing Drives	85	91
Quality Drives	77	66

Troy Offense vs. Arkansas State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	118	119
Line Yards	86	97
Pass Success	87	106
Havoc	122	91
Finishing Drives	106	116
Quality Drives	104	127

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	68	26
PFF Coverage	51	37
Special Teams SP+	107	94
Middle 8	92	23
Seconds per Play	25.3 (36)	28.2 (87)
Rush Rate	57.2% (52)	50.2% (106)

As a Sun Belt nerd, I’m excited to see Jaylen Raynor against the league’s defending champions.

Raynor doesn't even have a photograph on his ESPN.com page yet, but he's already making waves throughout the league. He's elevating the Red Wolves offense and potentially saving Jones’ job in Jonesboro.

I don’t think Raynor will replicate the 44 or 52 points he led his team two in the previous two weeks, but this unit will create some big plays and find the end zone.

I think Troy’s improved offense will do the same. It hung 48 on this Red Wolves outfit last year. That defense didn't get much better, and Troy’s offense is trending up.

Because of the new look for Arkansas State, I think this game is going to be pointsier than the metrics indicate. I like the over 51.5 and will play it to 54.