The Ball State Cardinals take on the Toledo Rockets in Toledo, Ohio. Kickoff is set for 2:00 p.m. EST on ESPN+.
Toledo is favored by 27 points on the spread with a moneyline of -5000. The total is set at 47.5 points.
Here’s my Ball State vs. Toledo prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 22, 2025.
Ball State vs Toledo Prediction
- Ball State vs. Toledo Pick: Ball State +27 or Better
My Toledo vs. Ball State best bet is on the Cardinals to cover. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Ball State vs Toledo Odds
| Ball State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+27 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +1600 |
| Toledo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-27 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -5000 |
- Ball State vs Toledo point spread: Toledo -27 (-110), Ball State +27 (-110)
- Ball State vs Toledo over/under: 47.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Ball State vs Toledo moneyline: Ball State +1600, Toledo -5000
Ball State vs Toledo Pick
I’m going to take the points with Ball State.
Mike Uremovich has a recipe, and we’ve seen it work in his favor. The Cardinals have been a pest all season — they nearly stole a game from UConn early in the season.
The Cardinals rank outside the top 100 nationally in plays per game and seconds per play, and they rank 24th in rush play rate. Shortening the game is key for a big underdog trying to cover a four-touchdown spread.
Critically, Ball State is getting Qua Ashley back. He’s had a few breakout games this season, including an 150-yard effort against New Hampshire.
He will be key, as you can’t throw on Toledo’s secondary.
But you can beat the Rockets by leaning into the quarterback run game. Washington State did that a few weeks ago in a 28-7 win over Toledo, with 90 of the Cougars’ 180 rushing yards coming from Zevi Eckhaus.
I think Ashley and Kiael Kelly have an opportunity to muck up this game.
And let’s not forget about Jason Candle, as his teams have a penchant for playing down to competition.
It’s also a look-ahead spot for Toledo, as the Rockets have Central Michigan next week with a chance to get back into the MAC title game.
Pick: Ball State +27 or Better
