The Baylor Bears take on the Arizona Wildcats in Tucson, Arizona. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET on TNT.
Arizona is favored by 7 points on the spread with a moneyline of -250. Baylor, meanwhile, enters as a +7 underdog and is +205 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 62.5 total points.
Here’s my Baylor vs. Arizona prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 22.
Baylor vs Arizona Prediction
- Baylor vs. Arizona Pick: Baylor Team Total Under 27.5
My Arizona vs. Baylor best bet is on the Bears to go under their team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Baylor vs Arizona Odds
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -115 | 62.5 -108o / -112u | +205 |
| Arizona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -105 | 62.5 -108o / -112u | -250 |
- Baylor vs Arizona Spread: Arizona -7, Baylor +7
- Baylor vs Arizona Over/Under: 62.5 Points
- Baylor vs Arizona Moneyline: Baylor +205, Arizona -250
Baylor vs Arizona College Football Betting Preview
Baylor Bears Betting Preview: Climbing Uphill
The last four games for Baylor have not been forgiving.
The Bears dropped three games to tough opponents (TCU, Utah, Cincinnati) by some decisive margins. Once a preseason dark horse pick — Phil Steele picked Baylor first in the Big 12 this summer — Baylor now slips to 5-5 and 3-4 in Big 12 play.
At Arizona and a finale against top-25 Houston make for an uphill battle to bowl eligibility.
The problem has been a leaky defense that's struggled from the start.
Head coach Dave Aranda took over the play-calling duties, but he lacks the horses he had at LSU and the Bears rank just 119th in Points Per Drive allowed this season.
That includes giving up 38 to Auburn (75th in Points Per Drive) and at least 40 points in three of its last four games; even in a win, Baylor surrendered 45 to SMU (58th).
The recipe for success against this defense is to run early and often. Baylor ranks 113th in Rushing Success Rate (46%) and 119th in EPA on first and second down.
At least the offense carries its weight.
Quarterback Sawyer Robertson leads the country in passing with 3,212 yards on 426 attempts (second). However, there's a little bit of luck involved with his performance this year.
Robertson has been logged for 18 turnover-worthy throws, per PFF, and just nine of those have resulted in interceptions. Of the 10 quarterbacks with at least 18 TWPs, seven of them have 10-plus interceptions.
Robertson is afforded a deep cast of weapons out wide.
Tight end Michael Trigg is one of the nation's most productive, with 649 yards (second-most among TEs nationally), receiver Josh Cameron leads the team with 746 yards and seven tight ends, Kole Wilson is an NFL prospect due to his athleticism, and even transfer Kobe Prentice has six touchdowns on just 21 receptions.
Baylor runs an ultra-tempo offense, clocking the fourth-most plays with the eighth-fewest seconds per play in the country.
While fun to watch, Baylor is definitely in the bottom half of the Big 12 this season. It's a team unlikely to secure a bowl bid unless it pulls off an outright upset in either of its final two games.
Arizona Wildcats Betting Preview: Cats Running Wild
Few teams are as quietly hot in the country as Arizona. The Wildcats have won their last three games and their only losses since October began are to BYU and Houston, both by one score. They also upset Cincinnati on the road as +6 underdogs.
It's been a combination of a resurgent season from QB Noah Fifita and a stingy pass defense that forces opponents to rely on the run game to stay in it.
But as long as Arizona is scoring on explosive plays, teams are forced to the air, where Arizona excels at defending.
Cornerback Jay'Vion Cole has four interceptions and allows a 55.6% completion rate when targeted. However, Cole left Arizona's last game early after just 13 snaps and did not return.
Cole's running mate, Treydan Stukes, allows just a 44.3 passer rating when targeted and has two interceptions of his own. So while Cole may miss time, the other options are strong.
Opponents generate a quality drive on just 32.7% of possessions, the 16th-best mark for a defense in the country. And opposing offenses score just 1.84 points per possession, good for a top-40 mark for Arizona.
The Wildcats field perhaps the most efficient and perplexing receiver in the country: 6-foot-4 Tre Spivey. On just 16 total offensive touches this year, Spivey has a ridiculous seven touchdowns (it was seven touchdowns on 12 total touches before the Kansas game).
But when those touches increased, Spivey became less efficient. So, the magic number remains two targets and one catch per game for the playmaker.
Texas State transfer Ismail Mahdi leads the Wildcats with 637 rushing yards, but three backs have at least 30,0 and Fifita adds 261. It's a multiple and effective rushing attack that only further opens the throw game.
Arizona will continue to fly under the radar, garnering almost no votes for the AP Poll or College Football Playoff poll. It's not a national title contender, but it's a team capable of knocking off almost anybody at any given point this season.
Quietly, watch for these Wildcats to finish 9-3.
Baylor vs Arizona Pick, Betting Analysis
Arizona opened a -4.5 favorite and moved to -6.5, right on the cusp of moving onto a key betting figure. The 6.5 was juiced midweek but did not waver onto the key -7.
What happens when the nation's leading passer goes against one of the top pass defenses in the country? We'll soon find out.
Cole's health is a big piece to the Arizona defensive puzzle. His relievers are talented, but having Cole in the lineup to go against Cameron, Prentice and Wilson is a critical detail.
There's a difference between a team that compiles its success through volume and a team that plays efficiently; Baylor is closer to the former. It ranks 34th in EPA Per Play but 71st in Success Rate and 40th in Points Per Drive. Good numbers, surely, but far from elite.
Arizona counters with one of the nation's top pass defenses, and quietly so.
A total set at 62.5 is due in part to Baylor's defense being outlandishly bad at times, but it does assume that Baylor will be able to move the ball against this secondary. With Cole, that's a tough proposition.
The Wildcats force teams into passing situations thanks to explosive plays on offense. The Bears willingly go to the air.
Only 12 teams pass more frequently than Baylor, which lost its second-leading rusher from last year in the preseason (who also accumulated 15 touchdowns!).
As a result of that and a bad defense, this is a pass-heavy team.
Rather than take under the game total, which relies on Baylor making a couple of stops, I'm looking to target this high-volume Baylor offense. It's mediocre from an efficiency standpoint, and Arizona counters well with its defense.
This game kicks off at 11 a.m. locally, and the weather in Tucson is rather chilly in the 50s. A slow start could get Baylor off its game early.
I'd love to see this number head to 28, but we'd need some significant over bets to get there. Under 27.5 for Baylor is the play.
Pick: Baylor Team Total Under 27.5
Baylor vs Arizona Betting Trends
