Boise State vs Memphis Odds, Picks | Big Day for Tigers?

Boise State vs Memphis Odds, Picks | Big Day for Tigers? article feature image

Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images. Pictured: Jevyon Ducker (Memphis)

Boise State vs Memphis Odds

Saturday, Sept. 30
4 p.m. ET
Boise State Odds
-110o / -110u
Memphis Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

In Memphis, the Tigers will host the Boise State Broncos in the first-ever meeting between these two programs.

After a rough start to the season, the Broncos recovered nicely, with wins over North Dakota and San Diego State. Boise State has had one of the better programs outside of the Power Five, but beating a determined Memphis squad is a tall order.

For Memphis, it’s simple: Win.

The Tigers are coming in fresh off a loss to No. 23 Missouri, where they were in it until the end.

Head coach Ryan Silverfield understands the importance of this game, though, as it keeps momentum on their side.

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Boise State Broncos

The story of the Broncos this year is clear as day: They have a solid offense but are lost defensively.

Boise State is 110th nationally in scoring defense, allowing a whopping 35 points per game. Winning is not sustainable with these numbers.

Taylen Green has shown flashes of greatness, with his ability to turn nothing into something. He averages nearly five yards per carry on the ground and has two scores.

Still, he needs to make better reads. The redshirt sophomore has thrown four touchdowns, but also has four interceptions with a completion rate of 53%.

What Green needs is more weapons. Aside from running back Ashton Jeanty, Eric McAlister is the only wide receiver who can move the needle.

The passing game is anemic (114th in Passing Success Rate), so I expect the Broncos to pound the rock.

Boise State’s backfield is known to cause some problems. The sophomore Jeanty is making defenses' lives a living nightmare with close to six yards per carry, 421 total yards and six touchdowns.

Unsurprisingly, the Broncos are among the most successful rushing attacks in the country, ranking 20th in Rush Success Rate and 32nd in PPA. Jeanty is among college football's most efficient backs and will continue to be relied upon as the season progresses.

I mentioned before that this defense has seen better days with how many points per game it allows. Not only does it lack Explosiveness, but it can’t stop either the run or pass to save its lives.

On Standard Downs, the Broncos rank 123rd in Success Rate Allowed and 108th in Havoc generated.

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Memphis Tigers

There’s a lot to like about Memphis. Although Seth Henigan had an uncharacteristic game last week with two interceptions, he’s still an efficient quarterback, boasting a 69% completion percentage and 1,107 yards.

Fifth-year running back Blake Watson is the star of the show. He’s contributed significantly to this program, rushing for six yards per carry and four touchdowns.

Unfortunately, he’s the only solid option the Tigers have, hindering their overall Success Rate.

Throwing the ball is Memphis' specialty. I already mentioned Henigan’s efficiency, but it helps to have playmakers like Roc Taylor and Tauskie Dove at his disposal.

While not the most explosive, Memphis has made the most of its chances when throwing the ball, placing 27th in Passing Success Rate.

Meanwhile, the defense is special.

It's been a pleasant surprise, as the Tigers are a top-three team at defending the pass and are 17th nationally in Havoc generated. They're also 37th in the nation in scoring defense, only allowing 20.3 points per game.

Linebacker Chandler Martin is the defense's engine, amassing 26 total tackles, three and a half tackles for loss and a forced fumble.

Boise State vs Memphis

Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Boise State and Memphis match up statistically:

Boise State Offense vs. Memphis Defense
Rush Success2062
Line Yards2986
Pass Success1144
Finishing Drives5958
Quality Drives7917
Memphis Offense vs. Boise State Defense
Rush Success101125
Line Yards98109
Pass Success26114
Finishing Drives42113
Quality Drives60111
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling11676
PFF Coverage1215
Special Teams SP+4257
Middle 83327
Seconds per Play26.1 (54)27.1 (71)
Rush Rate52.6% (72)49.2% (96)

Boise State vs Memphis

Betting Pick & Prediction

Memphis is the favorite in this matchup, but the books seem to think this will be close.

I'm afraid I have to disagree.

Despite Boise State’s prestigious history as a program, the Tigers are the superior team. Even though they barely beat Navy in Week 3, they held their own against Missouri.

While Mizzou isn’t the SEC golden child, it's no slouch, and Memphis hung tough with it.

Boise State, on the other hand, still has a lot to figure out. The Broncos are weak in every aspect — except for the run game — and snuck past a below-average San Diego State team last week.

Boise State's lackluster passing attack likely struggles against Memphis' elite defense.

Also, the Broncos' defense is nonexistent, so I can see Watson having himself a day on Saturday.

I'm betting the Tigers will roll the Broncos.

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