College Football Odds, Pick for Bowling Green vs Western Michigan: Why to Bet Falcons

College Football Odds, Pick for Bowling Green vs Western Michigan: Why to Bet Falcons article feature image

David Berding/Getty Images. Pictured: Bowling Green head coach Scot Loeffler.

Bowling Green Falcons vs Western Michigan Broncos Odds

Tuesday, Nov. 20
7 p.m. ET
Bowling Green Odds
Point SpreadOver/UnderMoneyline
-110o / -110u
Western Michigan Odds
Point SpreadOver/UnderMoneyline
-110o / -110u
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

Let's look at the college football odds for Bowling Green vs. Western Michigan and make a pick for Tuesday night's MACtion game.

Western Michigan and Bowling Green face off for Tuesday night MACtion in the final week of the regular season.

The Broncos (4-7) have won two of their past three, while the Falcons (6-5) have won four of their previous five.

So, who has the edge on Tuesday night? Let's dive in.

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Bowling Green Falcons

In his fifth season with Bowling Green, head coach Scot Loeffler has done a great job turning this program around.

The year began with a tough nonconference schedule that included trips to Liberty, Michigan and Georgia Tech. The Falcons then faced two of the better teams in the conference in Ohio and Miami (OH) to start MAC play.

However, Bowling Green has played well down the stretch — a run that's included a four-game winning streak with wins over Buffalo, Akron, Ball State and Kent State. BGSU was also close to upsetting Toledo before falling, 32-31, last week.

If Loeffler’s team gets the victory here, it would be the program’s first winning season since it won the MAC in 2015.

One of the keys to success this year has been an opportunistic defense that has the most takeaways in the nation (25). The Falcons are the only team in the FBS to rank in the top 10 in both fumble recoveries and interceptions.

Western Michigan Broncos

Closing out his first season at Western Michigan, head coach Lance Taylor and his squad won't be going bowling. However, I'd still expect there to be plenty of motivation on Senior Night.

The Broncos are led by running back Jalen Buckley, who's just 82 yards shy of reaching the 1,000-yard mark on the ground this season. He would become the 16th player in program history to reach the milestone if he does so in the finale.

Buckley is joined on offense by wide receiver Kenneth Womack, who leads the MAC in both total receptions and receptions per game.

With the defense also improving down the stretch, Taylor should have plenty to be excited about going into Year 2.

Bowling Green vs Western Michigan

Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Bowling Green and Western Michigan match up statistically:

Bowling Green Offense vs. Western Michigan Defense
Rush Success5796
Line Yards81127
Pass Success8696
Finishing Drives89102
Quality Drives91103
Western Michigan Offense vs. Bowling Green Defense
Rush Success89112
Line Yards83105
Pass Success7165
Finishing Drives5853
Quality Drives11055
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling3869
PFF Coverage2778
Special Teams SP+120126
Middle 830116
Seconds per Play30.4 (124)24.6 (20)
Rush Rate56.6% (46)54.5% (36)

Bowling Green vs Western Michigan

Betting Pick & Prediction

This game is ultimately going to come down to whichever team can get consistent yards on the ground, as both teams rank in the top 50 in rush rate. I believe the metrics over the past month give a clear advantage to the visitors.

So, my best bet is to take Bowling Green on the moneyline, which I would bet to -135.

Over the past four weeks, Western Michigan has struggled to stop the run, ranking in the bottom 10 of Group of Five programs in Stuff Rate, Line Yards, Rush Success and Power Success.

That's not a recipe for success when going up against a Falcons squad that's 57th in the country offensively in Rush Success.

Meanwhile, the offensive numbers haven’t been much better for WMU. The Broncos sit in the bottom 10 in Rush PPA and rush explosiveness.

By backing the visitors, we get the team that has the better tackling and coverage grades, per Pro Football Focus, and has the edge in Finishing Drives on both sides of the ball.

I believe Bowling Green has enough to pick up its seventh win of the season.

Pick: Bowling Green ML -120 (Play to -135)

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