College Football Odds, Pick for Bowling Green vs Western Michigan: Why to Bet Falcons

Let's look at the college football odds for Bowling Green vs. Western Michigan and make a pick for Tuesday night's MACtion game.

Western Michigan and Bowling Green face off for Tuesday night MACtion in the final week of the regular season.

The Broncos (4-7) have won two of their past three, while the Falcons (6-5) have won four of their previous five.

So, who has the edge on Tuesday night? Let's dive in.

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In his fifth season with Bowling Green, head coach Scot Loeffler has done a great job turning this program around.

The year began with a tough nonconference schedule that included trips to Liberty, Michigan and Georgia Tech. The Falcons then faced two of the better teams in the conference in Ohio and Miami (OH) to start MAC play.

However, Bowling Green has played well down the stretch — a run that's included a four-game winning streak with wins over Buffalo, Akron, Ball State and Kent State. BGSU was also close to upsetting Toledo before falling, 32-31, last week.

If Loeffler’s team gets the victory here, it would be the program’s first winning season since it won the MAC in 2015.

One of the keys to success this year has been an opportunistic defense that has the most takeaways in the nation (25). The Falcons are the only team in the FBS to rank in the top 10 in both fumble recoveries and interceptions.

Closing out his first season at Western Michigan, head coach Lance Taylor and his squad won't be going bowling. However, I'd still expect there to be plenty of motivation on Senior Night.

The Broncos are led by running back Jalen Buckley, who's just 82 yards shy of reaching the 1,000-yard mark on the ground this season. He would become the 16th player in program history to reach the milestone if he does so in the finale.

Buckley is joined on offense by wide receiver Kenneth Womack, who leads the MAC in both total receptions and receptions per game.

With the defense also improving down the stretch, Taylor should have plenty to be excited about going into Year 2.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Bowling Green and Western Michigan match up statistically:

Bowling Green Offense vs. Western Michigan Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	57	96
Line Yards	81	127
Pass Success	86	96
Havoc	124	45
Finishing Drives	89	102
Quality Drives	91	103

Western Michigan Offense vs. Bowling Green Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	89	112
Line Yards	83	105
Pass Success	71	65
Havoc	33	97
Finishing Drives	58	53
Quality Drives	110	55

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	38	69
PFF Coverage	27	78
Special Teams SP+	120	126
Middle 8	30	116
Seconds per Play	30.4 (124)	24.6 (20)
Rush Rate	56.6% (46)	54.5% (36)

This game is ultimately going to come down to whichever team can get consistent yards on the ground, as both teams rank in the top 50 in rush rate. I believe the metrics over the past month give a clear advantage to the visitors.

So, my best bet is to take Bowling Green on the moneyline, which I would bet to -135.

Over the past four weeks, Western Michigan has struggled to stop the run, ranking in the bottom 10 of Group of Five programs in Stuff Rate, Line Yards, Rush Success and Power Success.

That's not a recipe for success when going up against a Falcons squad that's 57th in the country offensively in Rush Success.

Meanwhile, the offensive numbers haven’t been much better for WMU. The Broncos sit in the bottom 10 in Rush PPA and rush explosiveness.

By backing the visitors, we get the team that has the better tackling and coverage grades, per Pro Football Focus, and has the edge in Finishing Drives on both sides of the ball.

I believe Bowling Green has enough to pick up its seventh win of the season.

Pick: Bowling Green ML -120 (Play to -135)

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