College Football Odds & Prediction for BYU vs TCU: Expect Plenty of Offense

BYU will travel to Fort Worth to take on the TCU Horned Frogs in a Saturday afternoon conference showdown. This game is set to be a close matchup that we'll see a lot more of going forward in the new iteration of the Big 12.

Both of these teams prefer to throw the ball, while neither team has been exceptional on defense.

After looking at the tendencies of each offense, I think we could see an exciting game between these conference foes, which presents an edge on this game.

Transfer quarterback Kedon Slovis has done an admirable job in the Cougars offense this year. He has posted a 0.15 EPA per dropback as BYU ranks 71st in Passing Success Rate and 61st in Passing PPA.

BYU has thrown the ball at the 22nd-highest rate in the country this year. I’m not sure if this is out of desire or necessity because the running game has been atrocious. The Cougars rank 133rd in Rushing Success Rate and 129th in Rushing PPA.

The lack of a run game has hampered the offense a bit, as it's had to face a lot of third-and-longs. On the year, BYU ranks 124th in Success Rate on passing downs, which is largely a product of how bad its running game has been on early downs.

Defensively, BYU has been fairly average, ranking 60th in Success Rate and 62nd in Finishing Drives.

Its rushing defense has been a bit better than its passing defense, as it comes in at 42nd in Rushing Success Rate Allowed but 89th against the pass.

After making it to the College Football Playoff National Championship a year ago, things have not gone as swimmingly for the Horned Frogs in Year 2 under Sonny Dykes. Now, they sit at 3-3 and risk not making a bowl game this season.

The TCU offense has still been performing at a relatively high level despite all of the talent it had to replace from last year’s team. Quarterback Chandler Morris is averaging 0.12 EPA per dropback this year as the Horned Frogs rank 48th in Passing Success Rate and 33rd in Passing PPA.

On the whole, they rank 29th in Offensive Success Rate, including a mark of 20th in Rushing Success Rate and 35th in Rushing PPA. This is largely due to Emani Bailey, who's averaging 6.3 yards per carry this season. On the year, Bailey has 653 yards while averaging 0.13 EPA per rush.

The TCU defense has not held up quite as well, coming in at 71st in Success Rate. However, it sits 34th in Finishing Drives, which is big.

The passing defense is just 80th in Success Rate, while the rushing defense is 69th. This unit hasn’t been terrible, but it hasn’t exactly been winning TCU games either.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how BYU and TCU match up statistically:

BYU Offense vs. TCU Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	133	69
Line Yards	128	76
Pass Success	71	70
Havoc	103	76
Finishing Drives	17	33
Quality Drives	113	52

TCU Offense vs. BYU Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	20	42
Line Yards	15	105
Pass Success	49	66
Havoc	44	116
Finishing Drives	75	62
Quality Drives	35	29

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	92	84
PFF Coverage	111	51
Special Teams SP+	79	110
Middle 8	111	76
Seconds per Play	27.6 (79)	21.6 (4)
Rush Rate	45.3% (113)	52.4% (80)

TCU has played at the fourth-fastest pace in college football this season. With BYU’s rushing defense being its strong suit, I expect the Horned Frogs to lean on Morris, who will orchestrate a solid offensive day.

I also believe BYU’s passing game will be able to move the ball against a TCU defense that hasn't been especially impressive this season.

The total for this game is too low right now at just 52.5 points. This game could have some barn-burner potential as these units throw the ball all around the yard.

I like taking this over at 52.5 and would play it up to 54.5.