What in the World Do Bettors at Caesars See in Oregon State vs. USC on Saturday?
Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images. Pictured: Deshaun Fenwick (Oregon State)
We live in a world of information overload in every sector. Getting the information is now easy. Distilling that information is much harder.
The sports gambling world is no different. Here at the Action Network, we give you trends and signals in every direction and do our best to interpret it.
And every once in a while, one of those signals seems so off that we struggle to find reasoning.
On Thursday morning, Max Meyer of Caesars told us that its bettors had placed more bets on the Oregon State Beavers to cover the spread against USC than 29 of the 32 Week 3 spread sides in the NFL.
The ticket count was even heavier as compared to college games. More than three times the money had been bet on Oregon State to cover the spread than any other Week 4 college game this weekend.
That isn't the case at other sportsbooks.
What are we missing? And how could the handle be so off?
Caesars opened USC as 13.5-point favorites on Sunday afternoon in every state but Nevada and the reasoning for that seemed sound. Despite both teams being 3-0 straight up and against the spread, they had a common opponent: Fresno State.
On Sept. 10, Oregon State barely escaped with a three-point win on the road in Fresno. A week later, USC waxed the Bulldogs, 45-7.
The line moved at Caesars down to -10 within the first 20 minutes of opening.
By Sunday night, USC was down to a 6.5 point favorite, a massive move on seemingly no news. On Wednesday, the line sat at USC -7, when a big wave of Oregon State money came in. The line as of Thursday night is at USC -6.
What’s interesting here is that this isn’t just one whale who took a stance. Caesars did take a $110,000 bet on Oregon State, but the sportsbook says the money has poured in from other bettors, too.
According to our “sharp money” signals in our Sharp Report, the Beavers have received a whopping 14 sharp moves on their spread this week, while USC on the other side hasn’t received a single move.
(The Sharp Money summarizes our portfolio of Steam Moves and Reverse-Line Movement indicators to pinpoint which sides are receiving the most betting action from sharp and professional bettors.)
Is there some inside knowledge going on here? Likely not. Because inside information usually manifests itself in the form of bettors spreading the love around to different books, so as to disguise how much of a side is loved. That's not the case here.
It's only Caesars that's indicating a large degree of action on Oregon State.
And the outrageous piece of data that Oregon State received more bets than 29 of the 32 Week 3 spread sides?
BetMGM tells us that Oregon State hasn’t received more money at their book than any one of their NFL sides.