Welcome to Wednesday Night Football.
Week 9's slate of Wednesday college football action features two games in Conference USA, including both of the conference's newcomers.
First, the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders take on the Delaware Blue Hens in a sea full of blue. Then, the Missouri State Bears meet the New Mexico State Aggies in Las Cruces.
Action Network writer John Feltman broke down both games, so let's take a look at his college football best bets and NCAAF picks for both games on Wednesday, Oct. 22.
College Football Best Bets, Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Wednesday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Middle Tennessee vs Delaware Best Bet
By John Feltman
Middle Tennessee’s offense has been frustratingly inefficient all year, ranking 107th in EPA Per Pass and 129th in EPA Per Rush. The Blue Raiders have gained only 37.5% of available yards, and they average a distance of around eight yards on money downs.
That means a lot of their drives end early, leading to more possessions overall. They've had a hard time getting ahead of the chains on early downs, with their EPA at a flat 0.
Against Delaware, though, that inefficiency might not matter as much. The Hens defense has been bad on late downs, allowing opponents to convert nearly 47% of their third and fourth downs, giving up more than half of the total available yards.
Middle Tennessee doesn’t need to turn into an offensive menace all of a sudden; it just needs to capitalize on those softer spots and sustain a few more drives than usual.
Delaware’s offensive identity, meanwhile, fits this matchup like peas and carrots.
The Blue Hens operate with a balanced attack, but they're at their best through the air, where they’ll face a Middle Tennessee defense that has been disastrous in that area.
The Blue Raiders allow +0.26 EPA Per Pass, which is among the worst in the country. Delaware’s efficiency metrics suggest it'll have no issues generating consistent drives throughout the matchup.
Delaware’s offense is well-above average in both EPA Per Play and available yards gained. The Hens do a nice job of staying on schedule with solid early-down efficiency, and they routinely set themselves up in manageable third-down situations.
Against an MTSU defense that already struggles to get off the field, that’s a recipe for long, clock-chewing drives that end in touchdowns rather than punts.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of explosives through the air, either, as quarterback Nick Minicucci has had a sensational season thus far.
When you put all the pieces together, you get a game script that screams "points." With that said, it's hard not to love the over in the matchup.
Delaware’s offense should move the ball efficiently through the air, capitalizing on Middle Tennessee’s 130th-ranked pass defense.
The Blue Raiders’ inability to sustain drives consistently also means Delaware will see more possessions and short fields than usual.
And while MTSU’s offense has been inconsistent, it faces a defense that’s soft enough on late downs to give it a chance at scoring drives of its own.
It's a bit scary to rely on this group given its past results, but the softer matchup should correlate to more offensive success.
If Delaware jumps out early, Middle Tennessee’s tempo will tick up, which will only help the over. I believe in both offensive units to create enough scoring opportunities here.
Pick: Over 55 (Play to 55.5)
| |
Missouri State vs New Mexico State Best Bet
By John Feltman
Missouri State enters this midweek clash looking to build on flashes of progress under freshman quarterback Deuce Bailey, who started last game against Middle Tennessee.
However, the numbers tell a story of an offense that struggles to sustain drives and find its rhythm. That's why the biggest news heading into the game is whether or not starting quarterback Jacob Clark is going to suit up, which will change the dynamic of the offense's identity.
Why is he so important? Well, the Bears rank 46th nationally in EPA Per Pass at +0.14. However, it’s not enough to offset their issues on the ground, where they sit at −0.13 EPA Per Rush, 126th in the country.
Although Bailey has shown flashes of ability, Clark's presence will make a significant difference in the passing game.
Meanwhile, New Mexico State’s profile is remarkably similar, which is not a good thing.
The Aggies offense ranks 55th in EPA Per Pass, but they can't run the ball if their lives depended on it, sitting at 133rd in EPA Per Rush.
They rack up just 39.6% of available yards per game, which shows that, even though their scoring drives are typically methodical, they lack explosiveness.
Everything about this matchup — the stats, the personnel and the tempo — points to a slower, lower-scoring game.
Neither offense ranks inside the top 40 in any explosiveness metric, and both rank in the bottom half of the nation in third-down offense and available yards gained.
Missouri State’s inability to run the ball or convert third downs consistently creates a recipe for empty possessions and punts.
New Mexico State isn’t equipped to turn those stops into instant offense either, considering its rushing attack ranks 133rd in EPA Per Rush, and its early downs EPA mark sits near the bottom of the nation.
Expect a contest defined by field position, conservative play-calling and defenses that force long drives to score. Both teams have shown limited explosive ability and a tendency to stall once they pass midfield.
I haven't put a lot of stock into New Mexico State's win over Liberty last week. I think the offense has performed way above its head.
This total will continue to tick down if Clark is officially ruled out, so I'm going to lock it in before it dips below the key number of 51.
Pick: Under 51.5
