Wednesday College Football Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions
Akron at Miami (Ohio) Odds
- Spread: Miami -30.5
- Over/Under: 43
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPNU
Akron is on the path to infamy. Not only are the Zips 0-10 on the year, they are also the first team in our database, which dates back to 2005, to go 0-10 Against the Spread (ATS) to start the season.
As you can imagine, bettors aren't lining up to put their hard-earned money on one of the worst teams in recent memory. At the time of writing, 64% of the bets and 73% of the money has come in on the RedHawks as 31-point favorites on Wednesday night.
Collin Wilson: Bet Numbers, Not Teams
There may not be more red on a team’s advanced statistics than Akron.
The Zips rank dead last in havoc allowed, offensive line yards and stuff rate and they are close to the bottom in plenty of other categories. This should be a slam dunk for Miami of Ohio, but consider the situation in the MAC East division.
The Redhawks hold a two-game lead and all tiebreakers on the division. In fact, a loss here and to Ball State in Week 14 would not change Miami's travel plans for the MAC Championship.
Our projected spread for this game is Miami -25 and SP+ makes the spread even closer at -23. If you are a market investor and just looking at numbers and not team names, the play is on the visitors as this number is inflated by their historically bad ATS record.
This isn't the type of bet that makes you feel confident, betting on an all-time terrible team with an 0-10 record against the spread, but this number is too big against a disinterested opponent.
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Toledo at Buffalo Odds
- Spread: Buffalo -8
- Over/Under: 54
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN2
Toledo vs. Buffalo Line Movement
Most sportsbooks opened this game at Buffalo -7 but quickly adjusted to -8 as the early money backed the home favorite to cover. At the time of writing, Buffalo is getting a slight majority (52%) of the tickets and mone (56%) for this Wednesday night MACtion showdown.
The betting splits on the total are a little more interesting. Despite 91% of the bets taking the Over, the total has not budged from the opener of 54. Most of the bets won't come in until closer to kickoff, but it's worth keeping an eye on to see which way this Over/Under starts to move, if any.
Collin Wilson: Will Buffalo Avoid a Second-Half Collapse?
Similar to service academy teams, handicapping Toledo comes down to if the opposing team can stop the run.
The Rockets rank 64th in rushing success but fifth in rush explosiveness, so preventing the big play is key when facing Toledo.
Buffalo has the defense to stop the Rockets. The Bulls rank 26th in defensive rushing success rate, 20th in stopping rushing explosiveness and seventh in line yards.
Toledo is 1-5 Against the Spread (ATS) in its last six road contests, while Buffalo has beat the number in 13 of its last 17 home games. One issue the Bulls have had this season is collapsing in the second half. Recently, the Bulls have squandered leads against Miami of Ohio, Ohio and Kent State.
While Buffalo should be able to stop Toledo, I will be looking to play the first-half spread on the Bulls.
