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Wilson: 9 College Football Games I’m Betting in Week 2

Sep 08, 2018 7:50 AM EDT
  • Collin Wilson is back with his nine favorite college football bets for Week 2.
  • His picks went 6-3 last week, and he's riding a handful of big underdogs again.

After years of starting slowly in college football betting, I’ll take a 6-3 opening weekend with my head down, ready to attack Week 2.

I got down plenty of cheddar at BetOnline when Week 2 lines opened on Sunday. Every game moved in the favor of my Sunday Morning Coffee column, which projects next week’s spreads using my power ratings.

I’ve had plenty of inquiries about the numbers and questions such as: “Would you take it at its current number?” The answer will always be: Check the Sunday column. The closer the number is to mine, the less value it has. Thus, the less money you should wager.

There are rare instances where I purposely pass on a number despite a big discrepancy. For instance, I knew my Arkansas Razorbacks needed five turnovers while averaging two yards per carry to beat Eastern Illinois. When BetOnline released Arkansas -6.5 (way off my number of 13), I had no issues passing on a team I cannot trust.

We’ll get more stats on success rate and explosive plays as the weeks go on, so always practice good money management early on.

Let’s get to the picks!


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Saturday Morning Mimosas

Liberty at Army

  • Spread: Army -8
  • Over/Under: 58.5
  • Time: 12 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS Sports Network

I loved Liberty in Week 1, but a 52-10 rout of Old Dominion was unexpected. Stephen Calvert first came on the scene in 2017 with a victory over Baylor, but a four-touchdown performance for 345 yards last week gave the Flames an opening statement in the FBS.

We may not have seen Liberty’s full potential, as the Flames were without three players due to suspension.

Army has long been a thorn in the sharp bettors’ sides, racking up one of the biggest negative rankings in Second-Order Wins for 2017, meaning its record was way better than its actual performance.

This handicap comes down to Army’s porous pass defense. The Black Knights ranked 122nd in Passing S&P+ defense last season. “Buckshot” Calvert should have time to throw, and Army is not the kind of team to play catch-up.

Roll with the hot hand and take the Flames.

Play On: Liberty +8


Duke at Northwestern

  • Spread: Northwestern -3
  • Over/Under: 49
  • Time: 12 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: ESPNU

Northwestern got outgained but pulled out the victory against Purdue thanks in part to three turnovers. Pat Fitzgerald’s group left that game with a yards per play differential of -1.57.

It’s hard to win many games with a negative differential, and it’s even tougher to do while going 6 for 18 on third down.

Duke was a different story in Week 1, avenging a 2017 loss to Army. The Blue Devils sold out to stop the run, leaving them vulnerable to a few big pass plays. Duke still finished almost positive two yards per play average for the game.

The offense should have an easier time upfront, as Northwestern will be without two defensive tackles. Take the points with the Dukies and add them to all round-robin moneyline parlays.

Play On: Duke +3

Eastern Michigan at Purdue

  • Spread: Purdue -17
  • Over/Under: 55
  • Time: 12 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: Big Ten Network

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Credit:

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Malcolm Perry, Justice Hansen, Daniel Jones

Follow Collin Wilson on Twitter
@_Collin1

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
59
-4
59
-3.5
64.5
-11
67.5
-7.5
52
-3
53.5
-4.5
48
PK
47.5
+2.5
50.5
-7.5
50
-6.5
-2.5
44
-2.5
43
55
-4.5
54
-3
-3
54.5
-2.5
55
-6
66.5
-5.5
68.5
48
-11
49.5
-12
-2.5
73
-3.5
74.5
67.5
-5
60
-3
-3
53.5
-2.5
51.5
-1.5
57.5
-1
60
55
-3.5
55.5
-3
61
-3.5
60
-6
41
-2
40.5
PK
56.5
-3
55
-3.5
-3
47
-4
48
-6.5
55
-3.5
55
54.5
-5
54.5
-3.5
-7
74
-1.5
68
54.5
-6.5
55
-3.5
50.5
-6
50.5
-7.5
-6.5
55
-4
54.5
-2
58.5
-1.5
60
56
-11
55
-11.5
79
-13.5
80.5
-14
-6.5
53.5
-5
53.5
-6.5
52
-6.5
52
48
-1.5
48
-3
-10
71
-8
74
45
-6.5
46
-7
58.5
-4.5
58.5
-6
-5
44.5
-7
44
-8
54.5
-7.5
55.5
48
-4
47.5
-6.5
58.5
-5
58
-6.5
58
-10.5
58
-11.5

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