College Football Bowl Projections for Week 5: Brett McMurphy’s Updated Predictions With Projected Spreads

Week 5 College Football Bowl Projections

Since my initial preseason projections in August, my weekly College Football Playoff picks have included Georgia, Alabama and Ohio State in some fashion.

After the season’s first full month, those three remain carved in stone in my final four.

While projecting the College Football Playoff field has been pretty simple each week, it’s been more difficult determining the Group of Five’s representative in the Cotton Bowl.

In the past few weeks, I had Marshall and Appalachian State slotted in the Cotton Bowl after massive upsets over Notre Dame and Texas A&M, respectively. However, both schools have since lost Sun Belt Conference games. So, the revolving door changes again this week with Cincinnati now my pick to earn the Cotton Bowl bid.

Onto the rest of my projections. Each matchup includes the projected point spread based on Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s current college football betting power ratings.

Updated 2022 College Football Betting Power Ratings

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CFP National Championship Prediction

• CFP National Championship

  Monday, Jan. 9

  ⋅

  Los Angeles, CA

  Georgia

  Alabama

  -1

College Football Playoff Semifinals Projections

• Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 31

  ⋅

  Atlanta, GA

  Georgia

  -9.5

  Michigan
• Vrbo Fiesta Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 31

  ⋅

  Glendale, AZ

  Ohio State

  -1

  Alabama

New Year's Six Bowl Games

• Rose Bowl

  Monday, Jan. 2

  ⋅

  Pasadena, CA

  USC

  Penn State

  -1
• Goodyear Cotton Bowl

  Monday, Jan. 2

  ⋅

  Arlington, TX

  Washington

  Cincinnati

  -2.5

• Allstate Sugar Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 31

  ⋅

  New Orleans, LA

  Oklahoma State

  -2.5

  Kentucky
• Capital One Orange Bowl

  Friday, Dec. 30

  ⋅

  Miami, FL

  Clemson

  -2.5

  Tennessee

Projections for All Other Bowls

• Citrus Bowl

  Monday, Jan. 2

  ⋅

  Orlando, FL

  Minnesota

  -1

  Ole Miss
• ReliaQuest Bowl

  Monday, Jan. 2

  ⋅

  Tampa, FL

  Texas A&M

  -8

  Iowa
• Music City Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 31

  ⋅

  Nashville, TN

  Michigan State

  LSU

  -5

• Arizona Bowl

  Friday, Dec. 30

  ⋅

  Tucson, AZ

  Eastern Michigan

  San Diego State

  -9
• TaxSlayer Gator Bowl

  Friday, Dec. 30

  ⋅

  Jacksonville, FL

  NC State

  -1.5

  Florida
• Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl

  Friday, Dec. 30

  ⋅

  El Paso, TX

  Wake Forest

  -1.5

  UCLA

• Duke's Mayo Bowl

  Friday, Dec. 30

  ⋅

  Charlotte, NC

  Maryland

  Pittsburgh

  -2.5
• Valero Alamo Bowl

  Thursday, Dec. 29

  ⋅

  San Antonio, TX

  Baylor

  Utah

  -4
• Cheez-It Bowl

  Thursday, Dec. 29

  ⋅

  Orlando, FL

  Notre Dame

  Oklahoma

  -3.5

• Pinstripe Bowl

  Thursday, Dec. 29

  ⋅

  Bronx, NY

  Wisconsin

  -6.5

  Syracuse
• TaxAct Texas Bowl

  Wednesday, Dec. 28

  ⋅

  Houston, TX

  TCU

  -1

  Mississippi State
• Holiday Bowl

  Wednesday, Dec. 28

  ⋅

  San Diego, CA

  Florida State

  -9.5

  Oregon State

• AutoZone Liberty Bowl

  Wednesday, Dec. 28

  ⋅

  Memphis, TN

  Kansas

  Auburn

  -1
• Military Bowl

  Wednesday, Dec. 28

  ⋅

  Annapolis, MD

  Duke

  UCF

  -9.5
• Guaranteed Rate Bowl

  Tuesday, Dec. 27

  ⋅

  Phoenix, AZ

  Illinois

  Kansas State

  -4.5

• Camellia Bowl

  Tuesday, Dec. 27

  ⋅

  Montgomery, AL

  Troy

  -12

  Ohio
• Birmingham Bowl

  Tuesday, Dec. 27

  ⋅

  Birmingham, AL

  Louisville

  -3

  Purdue
• First Responder Bowl

  Tuesday, Dec. 27

  ⋅

  Dallas, TX

  Texas Tech

  BYU

  -4

• Quick Lane Bowl

  Monday, Dec. 26

  ⋅

  Detroit, MI

  Rutgers

  -5

  Central Michigan
• EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 24

  ⋅

  Honolulu, HI

  UNLV

  UTSA

  -8.5
• Gasparilla Bowl

  Friday, Dec. 23

  ⋅

  Tampa, FL

  Miami

  -12.5

  Indiana

• Independence Bowl

  Friday, Dec. 23

  ⋅

  Shreveport, LA

  Army

  Tulane

  -5
• Armed Forces Bowl

  Thursday, Dec. 22

  ⋅

  Fort Worth, TX

  Texas

  -8

  SMU
• New Orleans Bowl

  Wednesday, Dec. 21

  ⋅

  New Orleans, LA

  Western Kentucky

  Coastal Carolina

  -3

• Boca Raton Bowl

  Tuesday, Dec. 20

  ⋅

  Boca Raton, FL

  Georgia Southern

  UAB

  -11.5
• Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

  Tuesday, Dec. 20

  ⋅

  Boise, ID

  Miami (OH)

  Fresno State

  -5.5
• Myrtle Beach Bowl

  Monday, Dec. 19

  ⋅

  Conway, SC

  Middle Tennessee

  East Carolina

  -18

• Frisco Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 17

  ⋅

  Frisco, TX

  Iowa State

  -8.5

  Boise State
• Las Vegas Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 17

  ⋅

  Las Vegas, NV

  Arkansas

  -1.5

  Oregon
• LendingTree Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 17

  ⋅

  Mobile, AL

  Appalachian State

  -2

  Toledo

• Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 17

  ⋅

  Los Angeles, CA

  Washington State

  Air Force

  -5
• New Mexico Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 17

  ⋅

  Albuquerque, NM

  Wyoming

  Houston

  -14
• Wasabi Fenway Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 17

  ⋅

  Boston, MA

  North Carolina

  -5

  Memphis

• Duluth Trading Cure Bowl

  Friday, Dec. 16

  ⋅

  Orlando, FL

  Marshall

  San Jose State

  -2.5
• Bahamas Bowl

  Friday, Dec. 16

  ⋅

  Nassau, Bahamas

  Florida Atlantic

  Northern Illinois

  -1.5
• TBA Bowl**

  TBD

  ⋅

  TBD

  South Alabama

  -2.5

  Liberty

* The highest-rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in the Cotton Bowl if it does not qualify for College Football Playoff.

**ESPN will create a bowl this fall to replace the San Francisco Bowl if it is not played.

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