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Welcome to college football Week 6.
For the ninth straight season on our college football betting podcast, Big Bets on Campus, Collin Wilson and Stuckey pick their two favorite moneyline underdogs for each week's slate.
For Week 6 of the season, they rolled with two home underdogs to pull off upsets, including one in a big SEC showdown with potential weather implications and one in a high-scoring Big 12 battle.
If you're feeling lucky, a parlay of both pups pays out at nearly 8-1 at the time of writing.
Let's dive into our college football moneyline underdogs for Vanderbilt vs. Ole Miss and West Virginia vs. Arizona on Saturday, October 10.
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College Football Moneyline Underdogs for Week 6
West Virginia ML +145 vs. Arizona
| Arizona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 61.5 -105o / -115u | -165 |
| West Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 61.5 -105o / -115u | +138 |
By Stuckey
I’m taking West Virginia against Arizona. Arizona’s in a tough spot with cross-country travel for a noon ET kickoff after a late-night finish.
The Wildcats' top three receivers and their top tight end are all out, and they’re dealing with a couple of offensive-line injuries. If they were healthy, they’d probably have carved up WVU’s secondary, but they’re not.
On the other side, West Virginia has played the tougher schedule and can connect on deep shots, which is exactly what you want to do against an Arizona secondary that lost five players to the NFL.
WVU quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. has racked up 50% of his passing yards on deep balls, and Arizona has been very susceptible to those shots.
Plus, everyone moves the ball on Arizona.
Give me the Mountaineers at home. They stay at home, they can hit explosives, and Arizona’s personnel issues are too big to overcome. Give me the 'Neers.
Vanderbilt ML +150 vs. Ole Miss
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 +100 | 53.5 -114o / -106u | -365 |
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -122 | 53.5 -114o / -106u | +285 |
I've been leaning toward short underdogs here, but I’m going big this week: Vanderbilt over Ole Miss.
The hurricane changes the game. With heavy wind and rain incoming, Ole Miss’s deep passing is essentially neutralized. Ole Miss passes on 57% of plays.
Add that running back Kewan Lacey is still listed as questionable on the SEC availability report, and its run game might not be able to make up for its neutralized passing game.
Vandy defends the inside zone well, with a Success Rate of 49% against that concept, which should let it handle Ole Miss’s offensive line. That O-line hasn’t been dominant anyway, ranking 96th in Line Yards and 72nd in Stuff Rate, so I give the edge to Vanderbilt on that side of the ball.
The Commodores offense isn’t flashy, but it’s built on inside zone and pull-lead runs — exactly the kind of ground game that becomes more viable in a wet, windy environment.
Ole Miss’ defense has been getting worse, coming in at 124th in Rushing Success Rate allowed and 136th in tackling. That’s not a recipe to stop a soggy ground game when the deep ball is off the table.
The weather suppresses Ole Miss’ strength, its offensive line is middling, and its run defense is a glaring weaknesses. On a wet field, that’s an advantage for Vandy’s run-heavy approach.
I’m going to shoot big and take the Commodores.
