College Football Predictions, Picks: Stuckey’s Week 6 Bets for Texas A&M vs Missouri, USC vs Penn State, More

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As I do every week, I will share my favorite betting spots for Saturday's college football card.

Ultimately, my primary goal here is to discuss a few key angles, notable matchups, regression signals and injury situations for each game, hopefully helping you make more informed wagers.

I write most of these up after betting them, and I log them in the Action App immediately, so make sure you're following along there for plays early in the week that may move. For reference, I'll note what I'd still play each wager to and purposefully waited on most this week until they were more widely available.

After back-to-back 7-2 weeks, we came back down to earth last week with a disappointing 5-6 performance.

There were some painful second halves, as I'm still trying to figure out how both BYU and Texas Tech covered as road favorites with a combined 200 passing yards, but that's the way it goes sometimes. (A 9-2 week would've been very nice if I just bet every first half instead. If only I had tomorrow's newspaper today.)

Looking ahead to this weekend, I have highlighted my 12 favorite Week 6 spots with another heavy focus on some strength of schedule disparities.

Keep in mind I obviously won't hit 64% all season, so, as always, bet responsibly. There will be an inevitable disaster week. After all, we are still betting on college kids playing a game with an oblong ball.

• 2022-25: 223-178-3 (55.6%)
• 2026: 27-15-1 (64.2%)
• Overall: 250-193-4 (56.4%)

Let's dive into my college football predictions and NCAAF picks for Week 6.

College Football Predictions, Picks

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
	12 p.m.	North Carolina +4.5
	12 p.m.	West Virginia +3
	12 p.m.	Texas A&M +3.5
	12:30 p.m.	Ball State +35.5
	3:30 p.m.	Oklahoma +8.5
	3:30 p.m.	Georgia Tech +7
	7 p.m.	UTEP +10
	7 p.m.	UNLV +3.5
	7:30 p.m.	Penn State -1
	7:30 p.m.	Northern Illinois +10.5
	7:30 p.m.	Georgia Southern +8.5
	8 p.m.	Purdue +3.5

North Carolina +4.5 at Pitt

12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN

For starters, these teams have a pretty big strength-of-schedule disparity.

The Heels have played a top-15 schedule to date with games against TCU overseason to start the season, a road game at Clemson it arguably would've won without a rain delay (and certainly should've covered) and then a home game vs. Notre Dame last week.

Meanwhile, Pitt has a strength of schedule that ranks outside the top 80 nationally with four home wins to start the season against Miami (OH), Syracuse, UCF and Bucknell.

The Panthers did pick up an enormous road win last week against Virginia Tech, but the Hokies outgained them by over 200 yards, 499-295.

Thanks to a +4 turnover margin, they ended up winning by two after John Love shockingly missed a game-winning chip-shot field goal.

Plus, the newly-ranked Panthers must now make do without starting quarterback Mason Heintschel, who suffered a season-ending injury last week.

I believe it's a pretty significant drop-off to senior Holden Geriner, who has served as a third-string backup at both Auburn and Texas State over the past four seasons.

UNC's defense does a tremendous job limiting explosive plays, which will force Geriner to methodically drive the field.

I'm willing to bet he can't do that consistently without misfiring on throws or taking a sack against a UNC front that can get after opposing quarterbacks and create Havoc, especially with the Heels now having their best defensive player in Melkart Abou Jaoude back in the lineup.

There are some other injuries worth monitoring along the defensive line, but they should have enough juice to create pressure on known passing downs.

On the other side of the ball, as always, you have to hit explosives against the Pat Narduzzi defense that frequently leaves its cornerbacks out on islands.

I'll trust offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino (who has done an admirable job in that department to date) to scheme up enough of those to keep UNC close throughout.

Tar! Heel!

Pick: UNC +4.5 (Play to +4)

West Virginia +3 vs. Arizona

12 p.m. ET ⋅ TNT

This particular handicap isn't rocket science.

I simply wanted a field goal (better numbers out there at the time of writing) with the home 'Eers hosting an Arizona team traveling across the country for a noon ET kick for its third road game in five weeks following a late-night finish last Saturday.

Additionally, Arizona will be without its starting tight end and all three starting wide receivers, which should provide an enormous boost to a struggling West Virginia secondary that would've been completely overmatched against this Wildcat passing attack at full strength.

On the other side of the ball, West Virginia has had one of the most explosive offenses in the country (99th percentile) to start 2026 against a more difficult schedule than Arizona.

That could be very problematic for a Wildcat defense that has really struggled in that department (10th percentile).

And it's not like Arizona has faced a gauntlet of explosive offenses in Northern Arizona, BYU, Cincinnati, Washington State and Northern Illinois. It even struggled to limit those big plays against NIU and Wazzu's broken offenses.

WVU has the horses to fully take advantage of a banged-up linebacker room and a secondary that lost five players to the NFL.

I believe the Wildcats are getting too much credit for destroying a completely overrated Cincinnati bunch in a brutal situational spot.

I project Arizona as less than a field-goal favorite after adjusting for the travel spot and injuries, so give me the 'Eers at a field goal or better.

Country Roads!

Pick: West Virginia +3 or Better

Texas A&M +3.5 at Missouri

12 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC

We continue our five-week spot string that started with the Ole Miss lookahead to LSU:

• Charlotte +47 against Ole Miss
• then Ole Miss +3 vs. LSU
• then Florida -2.5 vs. Ole Miss
• then Missouri +6 vs. Florida
• now Texas A&M +3.5 at Missouri

Yes, Missouri looked incredible against the Gators last week, but it certainly benefited from catching Florida in one of the flatter spots of the entire season.

Don't be surprised if the Tigers (who are dealing with some key injuries) look a little flat out of the gates for this 11 a.m. local kick after such a monumental victory.

Austin Simmons is the toast of Columbia at the moment after he dazzled last Saturday, but I still don't believe he's very trustworthy on a week-to-week basis. His highs are very high, but his lows are also very low.

Don't forget a few weeks ago he finished just 11-of-20 for 108 yards in a close home win over Troy. He remains turnover-prone despite owning a 13:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio so far in 2026.

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He has only seven big-time throws to six turnover-worthy plays, per PFF; the interceptions are coming soon and likely in bunches.

I could easily see a two- or three-interception day against an Aggies secondary that's much more trustworthy than Florida's back end.

Now, A&M quarterback Marcel Reed could easily just throw this game away on his own, as the Aggies offense has fallen off a cliff due to a decline in the complementary run game following a complete overhaul of the offensive line.

But bottom line: I project this as Missouri -3, so I'm happy to take the 3.5 given the spot.

Gig 'Em!

Pick: Texas A&M +3.5 or Better

Ball State +35.5 at Northwestern

12:30 p.m. ET ⋅ Big Ten Network

This is the plug-your-nose bet of the week for me. Northwestern has looked incredible to start the season. The marriage between Chip Kelly and Aidan Chiles appears to be a perfect union.

However, this looks like an ideal spot to sell high on the Wildcats following their blowout win over Penn State to open their new stadium.

They also had a close loss at Indiana the week prior, so this early kick against lowly Ball State just screams "flat spot" in a scheduling lull.

Keep in mind Northwestern's lone bye week came in Week 2, which means it will play 11 straight games to end the season.

With seven straight conference games on the horizon, I'm banking on Northwestern going with a vanilla game plan while prioritizing health.

I'd have to imagine it doesn't want to show too much or run Chiles more than they have to, while prioritizing health and rest. As a result, you could see them pull starters a bit earlier than usual with a big lead, which could lead the back door open if needed.

I am a bit concerned that Ball State does semi-punt this game, prioritizing health for the remainder of its own league schedule with both quarterback Keldric Luster and running back TJ Horton (who's averaging 8.1 yards per carry) listed as game-time decisions.

It certainly wouldn't be ideal if the Cardinals take a cautious approach and sit both in an unwinnable game, but I'm willing to take a shot on anything above 35.

Chirp Chirp!

Pick: Ball State +35.5 or Better

Oklahoma +8.5 vs. Texas

3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC

What if I told you that both Texas and Oklahoma essentially have the same exact net yards per play this season across similarly difficult schedules?

• Texas: 5.29 yards per play vs. 4.23 yards per play allowed
• Oklahoma: 5.2 yards per play vs. 4.25 yards per play allowed

Most probably wouldn't have guessed that given the perception difference between these two teams.

Everybody is down on the 2-2 Sooners, who got embarrassed at Georgia in a game where John Mateer basically handed the Dawgs a victory on a silver platter. Meanwhile, Texas arrives in Dallas with a perfect 4-0 record and ranked No. 1 in the country.

However, the Longhorns needed about 10 different things to go perfectly right to complete a miraculous comeback against Ohio State in Austin.

Then they almost lost at Tennessee in a game where the Vols played with a true freshman quarterback who looked like a deer in the headlights on every snap, taking 10 snaps and then subsequently getting benched the following week after throwing for 0 yards on eight attempts against Auburn.

It's not like all of those struggles can be attributed to the dominance of a Texas defense that I still believe is a little vulnerable on the back end.

The difference has come down to turnovers. Oklahoma has coughed up the rock 10 times (that includes losing all six fumbles, which is a bit unlucky) to Texas' five.

Mateer rightfully deserves the blame for those giveaways. He has looked lost out there for most of the season behind a beat-up offensive line that still won't have its projected starting left tackle nor a reliable running game to lean on.

However, his overall numbers don't look too dissimilar to Arch Manning's for the entire season.

Just a few weeks ago, Manning finished 16-of-32 for 132 yards against a bad UTSA defense. This Texas offense has plenty of sexy toys, but the sum is less than the parts. The offense just doesn't look right due to subpar offensive line play.

Does Texas figure it all out during the bye week? It's possible, but it will now face arguably the best defense in the country that should have a much cleaner bill of health.

Oklahoma leads the country in pressure rate with Brent Venables relentlessly bringing blitzes in passing situations, which Texas should face plenty of since I believe the Sooners will win the early-downs battle at the line of scrimmage, especially with a healthy David Stone back in the lineup.

That's when the Manning mistakes and drive-killing sacks (he took six against the Vols) should come.

There's a reason this total sits below 40. This game should be ugly. Don't expect your older brother's Red River Shootout. This is more like the Red River Repulsion or Red River Repugnance or Red River Red-Headed Stepchild.

Whatever you want to call it, points should come at a premium, which makes the underdog much more attractive.

I also believe the bye week came at a much better time for the Sooners. Mateer needed a break following his disastrous start to the season, and the Sooners needed to get their backups reps in case they need to make a change if the turnovers continue (Venables said he considered doing so vs. Georgia).

This is basically Oklahoma's season with two losses already, so this is the game where you throw everything you have at Texas, including running Mateer until his feet fall off.

Schematically, that could give Texas defensive coordinator Will Muschamp's aggressive defense issues. And all it might take to cover this number is a score on the scripted portion of the game, plus a broken play or two.

Maybe Mateer turns it over three times, and the Sooners get blown out. That's certainly in the cards, but Manning could do the same.

I'll take the best defense in the country (and superior special teams unit) for my money catching over a touchdown in a prime buy-low/sell-high spot against an offense that has yet to really find its footing this year.

Boomer Sooner!

Pick: Oklahoma +8.5 (Play to +7.5)

Georgia Tech +7 vs. Duke

3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2

Georgia Tech has been dreadful to start the season with one win over Mercer and a trio of losses that haven't aged well against Colorado, Stanford and Tennessee.

As a result, I believe we're now getting some value on the Ramblin' Wreck, who may benefit from a much-needed bye week after losing both coordinators and dealing with so much roster turnover in the offseason.

Conversely, Duke has raced out to a perfect 4-0 start both SU and ATS. However, I'm not entirely sold on this Blue Devils squad as a potential ACC sleeper as some have started to suggest.

Duke has beaten absolutely nobody to start the season, and none of their wins have aged well:

• Tulane (arguably should be 0-4)
• Illinois (two wins over UAB and Southern Illinois)
• Stanford
• William & Mary

That schedule ranks 125th nationally in difficulty (Tech sits at 67th in comparison), and that might be underselling what those wins may look like by the end of the season.

There's also the potential for some hurricane impact with rain and heavy winds, which has driven the total way down in this game. If the forecast holds up, this game should be ultra low-scoring, creating more value on the 'dog.

Georgia Tech can also just completely sell out to slow down running back Nate Sheppard, who has carried the Duke offense so far this season.

Quarterback Walker Eget and this Duke passing attack in inclement weather just isn't all that scary, so the Yellow Jackets can load the box without much worry about their back end.

Give me Brent Key catching a touchdown at home to pick up his first cover of the season in a desperate spot off a bye against a one-dimensional Duke offense with some potential weather to even the playing field.

Buzz Buzz!

Pick: Georgia Tech +7 or Better

UTEP +10 vs. Nevada

7 p.m. ET ⋅ FS1

The first thing that jumps off the page in this particular matchup is the extreme strength-of-schedule disparity.

The Miners have played a top-20 schedule to date with road losses against Michigan, Oklahoma and New Mexico surrounding a home loss to an electric Oregon State club.

It doesn't get much more treacherous than that slate of games to open the season, especially with an almost entirely brand-new offense.

Consequently, all of UTEP's advanced metrics are painted red as you'd expect, but it should look much more competent against a Nevada team that's more on its level.

While UTEP has played the 19th-toughest schedule, per Sagarin, the Pack barely crack the top 150 in that department.

They have one win on the season over lowly Western Kentucky in their home opener and have since lost three straight to Montana State (without starting quarterback Carter Jones, in fairness), Middle Tennessee and Air Force. That's far from a murderer's row.

This looks like a perfect opportunity to buy low on the Miners following an embarrassing 61-7 loss at New Mexico last week. I'd venture to guess this will mark the low point of their power rating in the market this season.

I must note that UTEP starting quarterback EJ Colson Jr. did get hurt last week vs. the Lobos. He's listed as day-to-day, but I actually believe he's more likely to miss than play.

If Colson can't go, Raymond Moore III would get the start.

The Morgan State transfer has at least seen action in every game this season and brings more mobility to the position. On the season, he has 33 carries for 294 yards for an uber-impressive average of 8.9 yards per carry.

I'd expect head coach Scotty Walden to lean into the run game with Moore and a potentially healthier backfield this week, which is exactly how you want to attack a Nevada defense that profiles much stronger against the pass.

And on the other side of the ball, Nevada's passing attack remains very limited, but the Pack have been very productive on the ground, albeit against a comical schedule.

Well, UTEP's defense profiles as much stronger against the run, so this is a favorable matchup on both sides of the ball for the Miners, who I expect to come out with a fiery effort after last week's debacle.

Miner Nation!

Pick: UTEP +10 (Play to +8.5)

UNLV +3.5 vs. North Dakota State

7 p.m. ET ⋅ The CW

It's our weekly CW special.

North Dakota State has raced out to a 5-0 start in its debut FBS season and now sits as the favorite (+125) to win the Mountain West.

The Bison have undoubtedly been very impressive so far this season, holding four of their opponents to 10 points or fewer, including a pair of shutouts.

However, it has come against a laughably easy schedule that has included Jacksonville State, Sacramento State (with a backup QB), Air Force, Fordham and Wyoming.

Three of those five teams just don't have a functional offense, which has certainly helped boost NDSU's defensive profile.

Per Sagarin, NDSU's strength of schedule ranks 173rd in the country, including FCS teams. That's one spot behind Howard University.

While the Bison have played three cupcakes at home, UNLV has played only two home games against Memphis and Cal.

Plus, sandwiched in between those two home games, the Rebels played three straight road games, including a brutal back-to-back travel spot against Hawaii and North Texas.

For comparison, UNLV's strength of schedule sits 82 spots ahead of North Dakota State's for one of the biggest deltas of Week 6.

If not for team captain and starting center Austin Boyd going down with an injury in the opener, I believe the Rebels would have held on to beat Memphis.

His absence certainly caused some issues, but Dan Mullen has finally started to figure out the right combination up front after tinkering with the lineup over the past few weeks.

Mullen also seems to be getting more comfortable with Jackson Arnold's strengths and weaknesses, with the Rebels putting up 38 and 39 points in a pair of victories over the past two weeks.

This offense is in good form and will present the toughest challenge by far for an untested Bison secondary that I had major questions about coming into the season.

NDSU will have some success on the ground against a vulnerable UNLV front, but it should struggle mightily through the air against a UNLV secondary that ranks sixth in Passing Success Rate allowed.

Keep in mind, this is a Bison offense that ranks 89th in Success Rate despite playing one of the easiest schedules in the country.

I believe the stark strength-of-schedule disparity between these two teams is creating a bit of value on the home dog that I have power-rated only a field goal worse on a neutral field.

Give me the Rebels to get it done in Allegiant Stadium against a Bison squad that hasn't faced this level of athleticism yet in 2026.

Let's go Reb-els!

Pick: UNLV +3.5 (Play to +3)

Penn State -1 vs. USC

7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ NBC

Is USC traveling multiple time zones? If so, fade. That formula has worked almost every time for more than a decade and did so again earlier this season in a game at Rutgers that the Trojans could have easily lost if not for a 99-yard pick-six.

And now this very young group will face a desperate Penn State team with an extra day of rest and prep following an embarrassing loss at Northwestern.

The Penn State offense has been an abject disaster since losing star wide receiver Koby Howard.

Without him over the past two games, Rocco Becht has gone 38-of-70 for 357 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions. It hasn't been pretty, to say the least.

However, he now gets to face a perfect get-right defense.

The Trojans rank outside the top 100 in almost every category despite facing only one top-50 SP+ offense (with a backup quarterback for a good chunk of action).

The Nittany Lions should actually have a complementary rushing attack this week against a USC stop unit that ranks 119th in Rushing Success Rate allowed and 121st in EPA Per Rush allowed.

And even without Howard, Becht should at least have plenty of open receivers to connect with down the field. Let's just hope he's not consistently missing them.

The USC passing attack has been lethal as expected, but Penn State's overwhelming strength is its pass defense, which ranks in the top 10 in both EPA allowed and Success Rate allowed.

The Nittany Lions excel at limiting explosive plays through the air, which is critical against Jayden Maiava and a talented wide receiver corps.

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Conversely, Penn State's rush defense has been very porous, which Northwestern took full advantage of.

But the USC rushing attack has been a bit underwhelming to start the season, especially in terms of explosiveness, so this isn't the worst matchup in the world for what I expect to be a fired-up Penn State defense in front of a raucous home crowd in prime-time.

For what it's worth, Penn State has gone 15-8 ATS in White Out games since they began in 2002, including eight straight covers before last season's overtime loss vs. Oregon.

Additionally, Penn State might have a secret weapon in defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn, who knows Maiava and this USC offense very well.

As DC at UCLA in 2023, his Bruins beat the Trojans, 38-20, and then he spent the next two seasons as the USC DC under head coach Lincoln Riley. I assume he'll have some looks up his sleeve to pick up some critical third-down stops.

Lastly, there's injury uncertainty surrounding the Trojans, who have a number of key players on both sides of the ball listed as questionable.

It remains to be seen if a pair of stud freshmen will suit up in tight end Mark Bowman and wide receiver Trent Mosley, who would both obviously make a difference.

With that said, I'm still willing to buy low on the Nittany Lions against the travel-averse Trojans.

We Are!

Pick: Penn State -1 (Play to -2.5)

Northern Illinois +10.5 vs. Air Force

7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network

This matchup holds the biggest discrepancy of the week in terms of strength of schedule. NIU has played one of the 20 most difficult schedules to date (17th), while Air Force ranks 146th in that department (including FCS teams).

To date, Air Force has three wins over Duquesne, a down Navy squad (with a backup QB) and Nevada in double OT in a game the Falcons won the turnover battle and finished 4-of-4 on fourth down.

Meanwhile, NIU has lost road games against Iowa, Arizona and a very improved Georgia State team.

While the Huskies didn't cover against Georgia State, that was by far their best performance of the season, as they actually outgained the Panthers, 432-342. They just couldn't convert a fourth down (1-of-4), so the game eventually slipped away.

In that loss, they had drives of 53, 31, 43, 68 and 57 yards that didn't result in points.

Quarterback Taron Dickens (28-of-42 for 320 yards in his last game) has taken over as the full-time starting quarterback after Jalen Macon began the season as the starter vs. Iowa.

It makes sense that Dickens needed some extra time before he became the man under center since he transferred so late in the process, making the move to DeKalb in July.

He has looked very comfortable running the show and is by far the most talented quarterback on the roster.

Keep in mind he threw 38 touchdowns to just two interceptions while adding 320 rushing yards at Western Carolina last season, while every other signal-caller on the roster should not be seeing action at the FBS level.

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Dickens should find plenty of success against a slow-footed Air Force secondary.

Speaking of quarterbacks, Air Force lost its do-everything starter Liam Szarka for the season after he suffered an injury in a hard-fought 14-9 victory over Navy last Saturday.

Last year without Szarka, the offense fell off a cliff, and I expect the same moving forward, especially in this particular matchup where teams have to attack NIU's horrid secondary through the air.

The Huskies have actually played the run pretty well (27th in Success Rate allowed, 97th percentile Line Yards) across a difficult schedule, which bodes well against the Air Force triple option, which NIU will have had extra time to prepare for following its bye week.

This is a tough travel and situational spot for Air Force following a huge win over Navy after losing its star quarterback, while NIU will benefit from that extra prep and rest ahead of its first-ever Mountain West Conference game, which should help Dickens get even more comfortable in this offense that should have no issues hitting explosives against the Air Men.

I wouldn't be shocked if the Huskies pull off the outright upset, but I'll happily take the points with the home pup.

Hail NIU!

Pick: Northern Illinois +10.5 (Play to +7.5)

Georgia Southern +8.5 vs. James Madison

7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPNU

If you listen to our "Big Bets on Campus" podcast, you know I've had this spot circled for weeks as a prime JMU fade spot. The Dukes have raced out to a 5-0 start both SU and ATS, but the schedule has been a complete joke.

They opened the season with a seven-point home win over Liberty in a game they were outgained, 321-291, and benefited from some fourth-down luck in addition to a bogus game-changing penalty on Liberty that took a touchdown off the board.

Since then, JMU has defeated San Diego State (dealing with a rash of injuries, but still an even game statistically), Old Dominion (with a backup QB), Wagner and Marshall.

All of those teams have looked astronomically worse than expected compared to preseason expectations. Those four teams have gone a combined 5-15 SU with an unbelievable 2-16 ATS record.

And one of the wins and covers came last week when San Diego State beat Texas State in miraculous fashion in a game the Aztecs were outgained, 565-239.

One of the other wins came from Wagner beating some school called Southern Connecticut State.

Marshall (which did put up 444 yards last week vs. JMU) has three of those wins, but the Herd easily could have lost all three against Middle Tennessee, Missouri State and Gardner-Webb.

Not only have JMU's opponents been overwhelmingly disappointing, but they've also been pretty beat up and continuously shot themselves in the foot. Their five opponents have gone a combined 4-of-12 on fourth-down attempts with 53 penalties.

Meanwhile, the Dukes have converted 3-of-4 fourth-down attempts with 20 fewer penalties.

Most importantly, JMU will actually have to play an opponent on the road with a pulse. Georgia Southern has been better than expected this season with four covers in five tries against a much more difficult schedule (72nd vs. JMU's 139th).

The Eagles have already played two P4 schools in Houston and Clemson in relatively competitive losses.

They also won on the road at Coastal Carolina last week and should have won at Jacksonville State in a game it lost by four (didn't cover by the hook) after blowing a 17-point lead due to a late punt return touchdown followed by a turnover in the red zone on the potential game-winning touchdown drive.

Max Johnson should have success throwing against this JMU secondary, while the Georgia Southern run defense can hold up enough to keep this one close against what I consider one of the most overrated teams in the country heading into Week 6.

GATA!

Pick: Georgia Southern +8.5 (Play to +7.5)

Purdue +3.5 vs. Minnesota

8 p.m. ET ⋅ Big Ten Network

This is my favorite spot on the board.

It's just a perfect time to sell high on Minnesota following huge back-to-back wins over Washington and Michigan — two of the most disappointing teams in 2026 to date — with games against Iowa, Indiana and UCLA on deck.

Talk about a potential sandwich spot following celebrations with blood and P.J. Fleck saying the upset over Michigan (the first in 12 years) was the best moment of his life (excluding family).

This is also another major strength-of-schedule disparity matchup. Per Sagarin, Purdue has played the nation's most difficult schedule in 2026 through five weeks, while Minnesota ranks 69th in that department.

Purdue did get blown out by Notre Dame just like Minnesota got blown out by Mississippi State, but the Boilermakers fared very well at UCLA in a brutal travel and situational spot, putting up nearly 500 yards in a competitive loss.

And if not for a fourth-and-18 conversion in overtime, they would have beaten a Wake Forest squad that looks like the second-best team in the ACC at the moment.

This Purdue team is playing good football in 2026 and is brimming with confidence following an upset win at Illinois to end its 19-game Big Ten losing streak.

The Boilermakers have made major strides compared to last year's disastrous campaign in what was basically a Year 0 situation for head coach Barry Odom.

Speaking of 2025, I'm sure Odom and quarterback Ryan Browne have had this game circled all offseason.

Purdue will look to avenge last year's 27-20 loss to the Gophers in a game they finished with a 456-262 yardage edge. Just take a look at Purdue's fourth-quarter possessions in that defeat:

• missed field goal
• pick-six
• turnover on downs inside the Minnesota 10
• lost fumble

There's a chance Purdue also gets healthier this week after missing a number of key starters, while Minnesota recently lost starting center Ashton Beers for the season.

Greg Johnson has moved to center and filled in admirably, but the strong interior as a whole now has more question marks. Jaden Ball originally took over at guard but then got hurt, so Bennett Warren moved into the starting lineup last week and really struggled.

As a result, there are two potential weak links up front at right tackle and left guard, which has really hurt the ground game.

The Gophers rank in the bottom 20 nationally in both Rushing Success Rate and EPA this season, which is welcome news for a Purdue defense that struggles to contain opposing ground games.

On the other side of the ball, Purdue's offense has been awesome, ranking 11th nationally in Success Rate across one of the toughest schedules in the country.

Former Gopher Fame Ijeboi (insert revenge game narrative) is one of my favorite backs in the country to watch.

He should have a field day against a weak Minnesota interior defensive line to help set up explosives through the air from Browne and a very underrated wide receiver corps against a Minnesota defense that can be susceptible to allowing big plays.

Lastly, it's no surprise Barry Odom has Purdue's special teams playing very well. Per SP+, the Boilermakers rank fifth nationally in the often-forgotten third phase of the game, while Minnesota ranks 92nd.

In what should be a competitive contest, that could end up swinging things in the home team's favor.

Boiler Up!

Pick: Purdue +3.5 (Play to +3)

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