College Football Odds & Picks: Best Bets for Saturday’s Late-Night Slate
Photo by Darryl Oumi/Getty Images. Pictured: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
- Looking for some late-night best bets?
- Well, we've got you covered as we have a trio of plays to make late on Saturday night.
- Our experts break down the late kickoffs and share some actionable opportunities.
If you’re looking to turn your attention to the NFL at 9 p.m. ET on Saturday, stop right there.
We’re not done with Week 9 of college football.
There’s plenty of value during Saturday’s late-night NCAAF slate, so our staff of experts will provide you with three best bets to cap your week of with a bang.
Saturday Week 9 Late-Night College Football Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
|Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.|
Middle Tennessee vs. UTEP
Ever since beating Miami (FL) — which we now know stinks — Middle Tennessee State is 0-3, has failed to cover the spread in each game and has been outscored 121-61.
This offense ranks 120th in the country in Success Rate on offense and quarterback Chase Cunningham has been held under 4.6 yards per attempt in the last two games.
The Blue Raiders don’t really run the ball at all and when they do it, they don’t do it well. Outside of a few big plays here and there, this offense just doesn’t consistently move the ball.
Middle Tennessee’s defense has also been torched, especially recently. It has allowed seven yards per play over the last three weeks and over 40 points per game.
UTEP’s offense comes into this game clicking on all cylinders. The Miners’ three highest yards per play outputs this season have all come in the last three games.
Last week against FAU, the Miners rushed for 234 yards, with Deion Hankins leading the way with 138 yards on 17 carries.
Hankins and Ronald Awatt have basically alternated carries this season, and they should be in line for big games against a Middle Tennessee defense that has allowed 10 rushing touchdowns and 211 yards per game on the ground over the last three outings.
The Miners have gone 3-1 at home this season and enter the game winners of three of the last four games. Gavin Hardison has done a much better job protecting the football at home, and this game being in El Paso is a big advantage for the Miners.
UTEP is the better team here, so I’ll back it laying under a field goal in the Sun Bowl.
Stanford vs. UCLA
By Cody Goggin
I’ve already made this pick at least once this year, but I have to keep going back to it.
Zach Charbonnet has been a monster on the ground. He’s averaging 0.17 EPA per rush and already has 771 rushing yards this season — which is 15th-best in the country, despite having fewer attempts than anyone ahead of him.
Charbonnet has the best yards per carry (7.1) this season among backs with over 100 attempts.
The reason that Charbonnet doesn’t have more rushing attempts is simply that the Bruins didn’t need him for the full game against some of the lesser teams on their schedule.
Now that we’ve hit conference play, Charbonnet has been leaned on heavily. In the last three games, he’s gotten 22, 22 and 20 rushing attempts, all in close games. He turned this volume into rushing totals of 124, 198 and 151 yards, respectively.
This week, Charbonnet will likely have a positive game script against Stanford, as UCLA is a heavy favorite. Stanford has one of the worst run defenses in the country, which is not what you want against UCLA.
Stanford ranks 113th in Rushing Success Rate on defense and 120th in EPA per rush allowed. This defense also has the 124th-best PFF Run Defense grade out of 131 FBS teams.
Charbonnet should have the chance to feast this weekend in a positive game script against a terrible run defense. This is a set up made in heaven for Charbonnet and the Bruins’ offense to have a big day.
Pick: Zach Charbonnet over 114.5 Rushing Yards (Play to 124.5)
Wyoming vs. Hawaii
Wyoming is quietly flying under the radar, and this feels like a great spot to back the Cowboys.
Hawaii games tend to get windy this time of year, and the forecast suggests pretty decent breezes on Saturday.
The Cowboys run the ball at a top-15 clip nationally, and only six defenses give up more yards on the ground per game than Timmy Chang’s Warriors (224.4).
Conversely, Hawaii is chucking at about 56% this season, and should see a pretty standard, negative game script Saturday night.
An offense that’s outside the top-100 in yards per play dealing with wind, even slightly? Yeah, no thanks.
Wyoming lost outright in this matchup last year, but the drop off from the 2021 Hawaii roster to the current one is seriously significant.
I thought -13 was more fair.