College Football Odds & Picks: 3 Afternoon Best Bets, Including Louisville vs Wake Forest, Navy vs Temple (Oct. 29)
Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Temple linebacker Tra Thomas.
- Week 9's Saturday college football slate rolls on if we turn our attention to the afternoon games.
- Our staff came through with three best bets for Saturday's afternoon games, including Louisville vs Wake Forest and Navy vs Temple.
- Check out all three of our college football best bets for Week 9's afternoon games below.
The noon games on Week 9’s college football slate are solid, but now we turn our attention to the afternoon.
Our staff came through with three best bets for Saturday’s afternoon games, including an over/under bet in Temple vs Navy, a spread pick in Wake Forest vs Louisville and a team total in Missouri vs South Carolina.
Whether you’re looking to make more money after the noon kickoffs or you’re just jumping into the action now, we’re happy you’re here. Now let’s win some money and turn some dots green.
Also, be sure to check out the rest of our college football best bets for Week 9’s noon, evening and late-night kickoffs.
Saturday Afternoon College Football Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click the team logos for one of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
|Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.|
Temple vs Navy
Navy’s triple option is humming right now. In the last three games, the Midshipmen have put up a total of 107 points, gained 5.5 yards per play and most importantly, earned 5.53 yards per carry.
They’ve also had over a 45% Standard Down Success Rate in all three games.
Navy is checking a lot of key metrics that a triple-option team wants to be ranked highly in to be successful. The Midshipmen sit third in Stuff Rate Allowed, 11th in Power Success Rate and 34th in Offensive Line Yards.
They’re even 34th in Rushing Explosiveness, which isn’t typical for a service academy.
They’ll be going up against a Temple defense that ranks 93rd in Rushing Explosiveness Allowed, 60th in Defensive Line Yards and 77th in EPA/Rush Allowed.
When Temple faced the triple option last year, Navy ran for 218 yards on the ground and put up 38 points.
Temple has not been great offensively to this point, but it does one thing pretty well: explosive passing. The Owls rank 36th in explosive passing and quarterback E.J. Warner owns a 79.9 PFF Passing Grade on throws over 20 yards with six Big Time Throws.
Navy has one of the worst secondaries in college football, allowing 10.3 yards per attempt (130th in FBS) while ranking 129th in Passing Explosiveness Allowed and 130th in EPA/Pass Allowed.
Additionally, Temple plays at a decently fast pace, running a play every 25.05 seconds, which is 49th in college football.
I have 45.1 points projected for this game, so I like the value on over 41 points.
Wake Forest vs Louisville
Don’t let back-to-back wins over Virginia and Pittsburgh fool you into thinking Scott Satterfield and Louisville have figured things out.
The Cardinals remain one of the more inconsistent teams in the ACC and could be in for a double-digit loss to No. 10 Wake Forest.
The Cardinals are only 4-3 on the season and have decent pass defense metrics (217.0 yards per game; 42nd in Pass Success), but they have yet to play a quarterback of Sam Hartman’s caliber.
Hartman, fresh off a six-touchdown outing against Boston College, has thrown for 21 touchdowns and averages 292.5 yards per game. Opponents have passed for more than 300 yards in two of Louisville’s last three games, something Hartman has done four times this year.
Malik Cunningham is the wild card in this matchup. He had a season-high 309 passing yards against the Demon Deacons last season in a 37-34 Wake Forest win, but that came against an injury-riddled secondary.
Dave Clawson also has a point to prove this week. Along with just wanting to keep the Deacs in the ACC title race, Clawson went on a bit of a rant after last week’s win, saying that Hartman gets nowhere near the amount of respect he deserves.
Full Dave Clawson quote on Sam Hartman: "He’s a really good QB. He doesn't get the credit he deserves. Last year he was the 2nd-team ACC quarterback and the first-team guy graduated & got drafted, and somehow he went into this season by some people as the 5th-best QB in the ACC.
— Les Johns (@Les_Johns) October 23, 2022
Expect Clawson to really unleash his veteran quarterback this weekend and for Wake Forest to put up some points. Louisville has shown no consistency on offense, and I just don’t see it keeping pace with Wake.
Grabbing the Deacs at -3.5 feels like a steal.
Missouri vs South Carolina
I alluded to this matchup being one of the most fascinating of the week in my Advanced Analytics Preview. South Carolina is red hot right now, with wins against two solid SEC teams in Texas A&M and Kentucky in as many weeks.
Meanwhile, Mizzou has lost several heart-breakers this season, and head coach Eli Drinkwitz may be coaching for his job down the stretch.
Now, let’s get into the matchup.
This Tigers defense should be able to shut down this Gamecocks offense. Let’s take a look at the advantages they have defensively:
Mizzou’s defense has a significant edge in every category except for explosiveness.
In addition, despite South Carolina’s success, the Spencer Rattler experiment has not exactly panned out. He has a 5:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio on the season and is seventh in Turnover Worthy Plays Rate (min. 100 attempts).
According to advanced metrics, this Tigers’ defense is no slouch and PFF grades back that up, too. Mizzou ranks 38th in PFF’s overall defensive grade at the college level.
Meanwhile the Gamecocks rank 95th (!) in PFF’s overall offensive grade at the college level.
I anticipate a low-scoring, ugly game in Columbia, South Carolina.