Bowling Green vs. Kent State Odds, Picks, Predictions: Betting Value on Saturday’s Over/Under (Oct. 2)

Bowling Green vs. Kent State Odds, Picks, Predictions: Betting Value on Saturday’s Over/Under (Oct. 2) article feature image
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  • Kent State and Bowling Green meet in MAC action for a Saturday afternoon college football game.
  • Bowling Green is coming off a big win over Minnesota, but that side isn't where Alex Kolodziej sees the betting value.
  • Check out Kolodziej's full betting preview, complete with odds, picks, and predictions below.

Bowling Green vs. Kent State Odds

Bowling Green Odds +16.5 (-105)
Kent State Odds -16.5 (-115)
Moneyline +575 / -850
Over/Under 56.5
Time 3:30 p.m. ET
TV ESPN+
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Bowling Green’s fresh off the biggest upset of the college football season.

Now what?

After throttling Murray State and shocking Minnesota as a 30.5-point underdog, the Falcons are officially on a winning streak — a remarkable improvement considering the program went 0-5 last season.

They aim to make it three in a row against Kent State, which could use a breather.

The Golden Flashes are 1-3 on the season but have played three tough Power 5 clubs in Texas A&M, Iowa and most recently, Maryland. 

Will we finally see one of the top offenses in the country break out?


Bowling Green vs. Kent State Betting Preview

Saturday, October 2
3:30 p.m. ET
ESPN+

Bowling Green Falcons

Bowling Green Offense

The old Bowling Green offenses would try and run it up.

The 2021 unit is more content with stringing together long drives and keeping the opposing offense on the sideline.

Quarterback Matt McDonald enters Week 5 with the 12th-worst EPA in the nation.

He’s only thrown two touchdown passes in four games but has established a nice rapport with Washington transfer and wide receiver Austin Osborne, whose 25 catches are seven more than the next-leading pass catcher on the team.

Bowling Green won last weekend despite recording just 194 total yards of offense. The running game’s dead-last in yards per carry (0.9), averaging almost half that of the next-worst team (UL Monroe, 1.7).


Bowling Green Defense

Few defenses have outperformed their projections more than Bowling Green through the first month.

Tennessee should’ve probably scored more than 38 points in the opener after totaling 313 yards on the ground and missing multiple wide-open receivers due to overthrows. But since then, the Falcons have quietly held up.

They limited a South Alabama offense featuring a former SEC starting quarterback (Jake Bentley) and future NFL wide receiver (Jalen Tolbert) to just 22 points in a near-win in Week 2.

This past Saturday, they surrendered a meager 59 yards through the air and forced a pair of clutch interceptions in the upset over Minnesota.

Golden Gophers quarterback Tanner Morgan finished with a week-low QBR (5.1) across the entire country.

Although they’ve struggled to defend the run, the Falcons are right on the cusp of owning a top-25 Pass Success Rate defense.

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Kent State Golden Flashes

Kent State Offense

It’s messy to gauge an offense that’s played a trio of Power 5 programs and one FCS club, but here’s what we do know: Kent State, regarded as one of the top offensive teams entering the year, hasn’t done squat.

Only Colorado’s Brendon Lewis and Ball State’s Drew Plitt have recorded worse EPA clips than Kent State quarterback Dustin Crum (-24.71).

The Golden Flashes are a plus in both Rush Success and Line Yards, but they’re only ripping off 3.4 yards per carry against FBS opponents.

An electric skill corps, meanwhile, has been kept at bay, ranking 101st in Pass Success.


Kent State Defense

Four weeks into the season, who would have thought the strength of the Kent State program would be the defense?

Playing three tough clubs — all away from home, for that matter — sapped their offensive firepower, but the defense has held firm.

Although the Golden Flashes couldn’t pull off any upsets over the Aggies, Hawkeyes or Terps, they held all three under their respective team totals.

If we’re sticking with silver linings, Kent State’s D is also top 45 in Big Play and Finishing Drives despite a gauntlet of three completely different offenses.


Bowling Green vs. Kent State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Bowling Green and Kent State match up statistically:

Bowling Green Offense vs. Kent State Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success
105
104
Line Yards
129
107
Pass Success
85
92
Pass Blocking**
129
124
Big Play
112
43
Havoc
119
63
Finishing Drives
117
43
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Kent State Offense vs. Bowling Green Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success
25
110
Line Yards
13
95
Pass Success
101
26
Pass Blocking**
26
41
Big Play
91
50
Havoc
83
94
Finishing Drives
107
61
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling
26
78
PFF Coverage
43
66
Middle 8
100
89
SP+ Special Teams
29
128
Plays per Minute
122
9
Rush Rate
65.% (16)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Kent State’s yet to unleash its high-powered passing attack, due to falling behind both on the scoreboard and in the game script.

It might have to wait yet another week.

A stagnant running game could finally find some efficiency against a Bowling Green defense heavily outmatched in Line Yards.

Plus, if Crum can’t get going through the air, he’s more than capable of contributing on the ground. The 6-foot-3 senior added 130 total rushing yards and one score with his legs over the first two weeks.


Bowling Green vs. Kent State Betting Pick

The market’s misread Kent State totals all year.

This isn’t a huge adjustment down to 56, but Bowling Green’s pace (122nd nationally) is a serious buzzkill to a game needing eight-plus touchdowns.

The Falcons and Golden Flashes are 8-0 to the under combined this year.

Bowling Green totals have missed the closing number by an average of 14.5 points per game, while Kent State has missed by 13.8.

The Golden Flashes will find a dance partner to race up and down the field with sooner than later. But coming off of the biggest win of the college football season to date, Bowling Green doesn’t strike me as an offense poised to open the playbook up.

I like this under at 56 or better.

Pick: Under 56 or better

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