Fresno State vs. Hawaii Odds, Picks, Preview: Will the Over Hit in Late-Night College Football Game?

Fresno State vs. Hawaii Odds, Picks, Preview: Will the Over Hit in Late-Night College Football Game? article feature image
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  • Fresno State and Hawaii close out the Week 5 college football slate on Saturday.
  • The Bulldogs make the trip to the island with a 4-1 record and one of the best offenses in the country.
  • Check out Kyle Remillard's full betting guide with odds, picks and predictions for the game.

Fresno State vs. Hawaii Odds

Fresno State Odds -11 (-105)
Hawaii Odds +11 (-115)
Moneyline -425 / +330
Over/Under 65 (-105 / -115)
Time 11 p.m. ET
TV CBS Sports Network
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

The Fresno State Bulldogs travel into the Pacific Ocean to take on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors in a late-night degenerate special.

Fresno State had a dynamic duo in Derek Carr and Davante Adams back in 2013. Now, the program is enjoying another great one-two punch in Jake Haener and Jalen Cropper.

The two have connected on eight touchdowns this season and have led the offense to over 42 points per game.

The Bulldogs sit at 4-1, including a come-from-behind victory against UCLA.

Haener put forth a herculean effort in that victory, which instantly won over the hearts of college football fans across the country.

They head to the Hawaiian Islands to battle the Rainbow Warriors, who are 2-3 on the season.

Hawaii has suffered two Pac-12 losses after getting creamed by both UCLA and Oregon State. The Rainbow Warriors suffered a four-point defeat to San Jose State at home despite outgaining the Spartans in total yards.

Hawaii will have no fans at its home games due to the state’s protocols over COVID-19.

This is each team’s second conference game and should provide fireworks with two up-tempo offenses.


Fresno State vs. Hawaii Betting Preview

Saturday, October 2
11 p.m. ET
CBS Sports Network

Fresno State Bulldogs

Fresno State Offense

Haener played like a Heisman candidate during the first month of college football. He’s led the Bulldogs into the top 15 in Passing Success Rate and leads the nation with 1,842 passing yards.

Haener is tied for second in the nation with 15 touchdown passes and is averaging 9.9 yards per pass attempt.

His go-to receiver, Cropper, also leads the country with 39 catches and eight touchdown receptions. The dominant tandem led the comeback last week against UNLV, when they connected on four touchdowns.

Fresno’s offense is reliant on the aerial attack, which is no surprise when you see that it averages nearly 400-passing yards per game.

We should see the same heavy dose of Haener in this game, where he’ll match up with a Hawaii defense that ranks 116th in pass coverage, according to PFF.


Fresno State Defense

The Fresno offense has stolen the spotlight this season, but the defense has been the unsung hero. The unit ranks inside the top 50 in nearly every defensive category.

They’ve created chaos defensively, ranking 14th in Havoc and have limited their opponent’s big plays.

The defense has held opponents to less than five yards per play and 21 points per game.

They’ve been terrific against the rush allowing a measly 3.1 yards per carry. Keep in mind that Fresno has played two of the most prolific offenses in the country in UCLA and Oregon already.

Hawaii’s offense has been able to put up yards this season, but not Finish Drives, something that the Fresno defense hasn’t excelled at either.

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Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Hawaii Offense

Junior quarterback Chevan Cordeiro has shown flashes of greatness but has lacked consistency through the first month of the season.

Cordeiro is a dual-threat quarterback, who is averaging 7.6 yards per pass attempt and five yards per carry.

He’s thrown seven touchdowns to his six interceptions and led the Rainbow Warriors to an average of 45 points per game when facing opponents outside the top 100.

But when they’ve faced stiffer competition (UCLA, Oregon State, and SJSU) the offense has sputtered, scoring below 17 points per game.

Hawaii also runs a pass-heavy offense that ranks 111th in Rush Rate.

That’s mainly due to a sketchy Hawaii offensive line that ranks outside the top 100 in Line Yards and Havoc. That often leads to Cordeiro extending plays with his legs, which he’s more than capable of doing.

The Rainbow Warriors play at a very fast tempo and rank 21st in Plays Per Minute.


Hawaii Defense

Hawaii’s defense was one of the top units in 2020, but they’ve taken a few steps backward to begin this season.

The group was built with bulk upfront and speed in the surrounding positions.

So far that recipe hasn’t worked out as they’re allowing 423 yards per game.

Their big defensive line has allowed 4.2 yards per carry, ranking 89th in Success Rate. Meanwhile, their speedy secondary has allowed over 270 passing yards per game and ranks 87th in Success rate.

The Hawaii defense has been quite strong in creating turnovers. It has 10 takeaways on the season, including four interceptions and six fumble recoveries.

All that being said, we could see this unit get exposed by the Fresno offense as Hawaii’s defense ranks 116th in Finishing Drives.


Fresno State vs. Hawaii Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Fresno State and Hawaii match up statistically:

Fresno State Offense vs. Hawaii Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 57 89
Line Yards 121 63
Pass Success 15 87
Pass Blocking** 83 119
Big Play 35 87
Havoc 64 76
Finishing Drives 36 116
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Hawaii Offense vs. Fresno State Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 84 48
Line Yards 114 30
Pass Success 108 26
Pass Blocking** 18 36
Big Play 44 17
Havoc 102 14
Finishing Drives 113 82
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 6 103
PFF Coverage 45 116
Middle 8 21 118
SP+ Special Teams 117 4
Plays per Minute 57 21
Rush Rate 44.5% (118) 46.8% (111)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Fresno State vs. Hawaii Betting Pick

This matchup will include two pass-heavy offenses that rank among the bottom in the country in Rush Rate.

Fresno’s Haener could be in for another big game against the putrid pass defense of Hawaii.

Hawaii won’t have an answer for Cropper on the outside and the duo should continue to build on their spectacular seasons. But traveling out of the mainland is tough for any team and I’m a bit concerned about laying double digits.

Hawaii ranks 21st in Plays per Minute and runs an impressive up-tempo offense. It has managed to move the chains consistently but have blundered in the red zone.

Against a Fresno defense that ranks 82nd in Finishing Drives, I can see the Rainbow Warriors finding the end zone early and often in this game.

Pick: Over 66 (Play to 67)

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