Liberty vs. North Texas Odds, Picks, Predictions: Betting Value on Saturday’s Over/Under (October 23)

Liberty vs. North Texas Odds, Picks, Predictions: Betting Value on Saturday’s Over/Under (October 23) article feature image
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  • The Liberty Flames are set to take on the North Texas Mean Green in Saturday college football action.
  • Alex Kolodziej is looking to a total that has been historically profitable in this one.
  • Check out Kolodziej's full betting guide with updated odds and picks below.

Liberty vs. North Texas Odds

Saturday, Oct. 23
4 p.m. ET
ESPN+
Liberty Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-21
-108
61
-109o / -112u
-1430
North Texas Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+21
-113
61
-109o / -112u
+750
Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

How in the world do you respond after losing outright as a 32.5-point favorite?

Liberty’s in a true hangover spot Saturday against North Texas, laying three-plus touchdowns after one of the most embarrassing losses of the college football season.

The Flames entered Week 7 with a 5-1 clip and only a three-point loss to Syracuse away from a perfect record. However, they took another one on the chin with a defeat to lowly UL Monroe and now have multiple losses on the ledger.

The Mean Green, meanwhile, are just trying to make games interesting.

The program hasn’t beaten a Power Five affiliate this season, collecting a -105 scoring margin across five contests.

Is this the perfect trip-up spot for the home side, or will the visitors get back on track against subpar competition? Better yet, is the total where the values lies in this clash?

Let’s dive into the outlook for the Week 8 showdown.


Liberty Flames

Liberty Offense

Bet Liberty, win money, wash, rinse and repeat.

A year after they covered a blistering 81.8% of games (fourth in the nation), the Flames’ 5-2 record also comes complemented by a carbon copy record against the spread.

The offense is led by one of the most talented players in the country in quarterback Malik Willis. The dual-threat can take over a game in the blink of an eye, as he already has more than 2,000 yards from scrimmage under his belt and the sixth-best QBR nationally (85.6).

He’s the straw that stirs the drink for a unit ranking top-25 in a bevy of offensive categories, including both Rush and Pass Success Rate, as well as Finishing Drives.


Liberty Defense

The defense, meanwhile, has held its own.

Despite the two losses on the schedule, the unit hasn’t allowed more than 31 points in a game — a win, considering how fast the offense oftentimes hits paydirt.

If Liberty forces North Texas into a passing script right off the bat, good night: the Flames are 13th in the country in Pass Success Rate Allowed, while letting opposing quarterbacks complete just 55.6% of passes (good for 23rd nationally).

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North Texas Mean Green

North Texas Offense

North Texas was points-y a year ago. It couldn’t stop anybody defensively, but the offense was formidable enough to make things interesting, posting a respectable 31.9 points per contest.

The current unit is just trying to find a pulse.

The Mean Green have averaged fewer than 19 through the midway point, due to a passing offense held together by Scotch tape.

It’s bottom-10 nationally in both Pass Success and Pass Blocking rate, which rarely helps when you’re trailing and playing in negative game scripts on a weekly basis.


North Texas Defense

Liberty likes to run the ball (63% rush rate) and it’ll probably do whatever it wants against a porous defense.

North Texas allowed a mind-bending 6.3 yards per carry last year and currently sits 95th in the country in that department entering Saturday.

Opponents are also averaging more than 200 yards on the ground this season.


Liberty vs. North Texas Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Liberty and North Texas match up statistically:

Liberty Offense vs. North Texas Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 18 26
Line Yards 18 46
Pass Success 22 78
Pass Blocking** 17 23
Big Play 53 61
Havoc 76 79
Finishing Drives 14 51
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

North Texas Offense vs. Liberty Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 62 62
Line Yards 46 81
Pass Success 120 13
Pass Blocking** 123 19
Big Play 81 85
Havoc 52 13
Finishing Drives 128 77
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 79 120
Coverage 51 113
Middle 8 15 107
SP+ Special Teams 106 93
Plays per Minute 115 7
Rush Rate 63.% (17) 57.1% (51)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Liberty vs. North Texas Betting Pick

Liberty’s high-powered offense will shake up the scoreboard Saturday, but these two won’t combine to go over the total.

There’s expected to be winds over 15 miles per hour in Denton, which fits our Windy Totals PRO system — this model’s cashed unders at a 56% rate with a 10% ROI since 2005.

Liberty can keep the ball on the ground all day and keep the clock running.

North Texas, meanwhile, will face arguably the stingiest defense to date. Plus, if the Mean Green do find lightning in a bottle and have success, they’ll likely be stymied in the red zone. They’re the third-worst offense at Finishing Drives.

Pick: 60.5 (Play to 59)

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