Texas Tech vs. NC State Odds, Picks: Betting Value on Red Raiders?
Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images. Pictured: Donovan Smith (Texas Tech)
- The Texas Tech Red Raiders face the NC State Wolfpack in a college football Week 3 nonconference showdown.
- The Wolfpack enter as -10.5 favorites, according to updated odds, but there may be betting value on the other side.
- Check out Mike McNamara's full betting guide and pick for Texas Tech vs. NC State below.
Texas Tech vs. NC State Odds
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 55.5 -114o / -106u | +310 |
| North Carolina State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 55.5 -114o / -106u | -400 |
I'm as excited for this matchup as just about any game on the Week 3 slate. We have an ACC-Big 12 battle between two undefeated teams with lofty goals for the 2022 season.
North Carolina State has its eyes set on an ACC Championship, and this is its last real test before the path shifts to conference play. The Wolfpack escaped a road scare against East Carolina to begin the year, then dominated Charleston Southern last week.
The Red Raiders cruised to victory in the opener over Murray State, then found a way to secure a win in overtime against Houston last week.
Where does the value lie as Texas Tech hits the road for the first time? Let's find out.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Joey McGuire is off to a hot start in his first season as the head man in Lubbock. The quarterback decision was made for him when Tyler Shough went down with an injury in the opener and Donovan Smith stepped in nicely against Houston.
The sophomore attempted a whopping 58 passes and threw for 351 yards and two touchdowns. He also found the end zone with his legs for the game-winning score in overtime.
However, there were a few plays the youngster would like to have back, including a pick-six that allowed Houston to tie the game in the fourth quarter.
It's not surprising Smith showed a bit of his youth, but he will need to take better care of the ball against a Wolfpack defense that can wreak some Havoc.
The Red Raiders' defense has really stepped up to begin the season. This is a unit that ranks inside the top 25 in Rush Success, Pass Success and Line Yards.
Clayton Tune and the Houston offense were out of sorts for much of the game last week, and this is a formula the Red Raiders will look to replicate against Devin Leary and the Wolfpack.
NC State Wolfpack
A team can often find a spark after a close call early in the season, and Dave Doeren is hoping that is the case for his team after what was nearly a debacle in Greenville against the Pirates.
Given the talent gap, we were never going to learn much from the game last week against Charleston Southern, so this matchup against Texas Tech should serve as a good litmus test for where exactly the Wolfpack stand.
Leary is one of the more experienced quarterbacks in the country, and entered the year with plenty of buzz around him.
Leary needs some help from his offensive line, as the Wolfpack have had limited success on the ground thus far, and will face a Red Raiders front with plenty of capable bodies in the middle.
The Wolfpack defense has surrendered just 23 points on the year and is a big reason why many believe this team can challenge Clemson for the ACC crown.
Spying Smith will be an important part of this game, as the sophomore is very explosive with his legs, particularly on third down.
NC State has already forced five turnovers on the season and generating a couple more Saturday night would go a long way in helping this team move to 3-0.
Texas Tech vs. NC State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas Tech and NC State match up statistically:
Texas Tech Offense vs. NC State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 36 | 86 | |
| Line Yards | 82 | 22 | |
| Pass Success | 14 | 14 |  |
| Pass Blocking** | 60 | 86 | |
| Havoc | 105 | 16 | |
| Finishing Drives | 77 | 46 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
NC State Offense vs. Texas Tech Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 68 | 24 | |
| Line Yards | 29 | 9 | |
| Pass Success | 33 | 10 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 8 | 3 | |
| Havoc | 40 | 40 | |
| Finishing Drives | 56 | 25 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 20 | 107 |
| PFF Coverage | 79 | 22 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 71 | 11 |
| Seconds per Play | 21.7 (11) | 26.0 (60) |
| Rush Rate | 43.5% (106) | 50.3% (72) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Texas Tech vs. NC State Betting Pick
I was high on the Red Raiders entering the season and continue to believe they are undervalued in the market. The Wolfpack have home-field advantage, but I think these are two evenly-matched opponents.
Texas Tech should be able to move the ball and manufacture its fair share of chunk plays. Smith will need to take better care of the football for the Red Raiders to have a chance to win outright, but I absolutely believe Tech can hang in this one.
Give me the road underdogs to cover the number in what should be a very competitive contest throughout.
I will also support any sort of moneyline sprinkle, as the Red Raiders have a path to outright victory.
Pick: Texas Tech +10.5 (Play to +9.5)
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