San Diego State vs. San Jose State College Football Odds, Picks: The Spread Bet to Make for Friday’s Contest (Oct. 15)

San Diego State vs. San Jose State College Football Odds, Picks: The Spread Bet to Make for Friday’s Contest (Oct. 15) article feature image
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Justin Fine/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Jay Rudolph (82).

San Diego State vs. San Jose State Odds

San Diego State Odds -10 (-105)
San Jose State Odds +10 (-115)
Moneyline -365 / +280
Over/Under 41
Time 10:30 p.m. ET
TV CBS Sports Network
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

San Diego State and San Jose State have met 44 times all-time with the Aztecs holding a 22-20-2 lead.

The programs have met as conference foes every year since 2013. San Diego State had won seven straight before San Jose State snapped the streak with a 28-17 win last season.

The Spartans fell behind, 10-0, before backup quarterback Nick Nash filled in for an injured Nick Starkel. SJSU may have to rely on Nash against SDSU once again, but his team hasn’t looked like the defending Mountain West champions this season.

Meanwhile, the Aztecs come into this year’s matchup at 5-0 and up to No. 24 in the country. San Diego State will have revenge on its mind and hopes to spoil San Jose State’s homecoming.


San Diego State vs. San Jose State Betting Preview

Friday, Oct. 15
10:30 p.m. ET
CBS Sports Network

San Diego State Aztecs

Aztecs Offense

San Diego State head coach Brady Hoke spent the majority of his time as an assistant as a defensive line coach.

Hoke emphasizes physicality on both sides of the ball, starting the Aztecs’ running attack. The Aztecs rank 24th in Rushing Success Rate and average 241.4 rushing yards per game.

San Diego State runs the ball over two-thirds of the time, but that may be partially to hide its shaky quarterback play.

The Aztecs have rotated Lucas Johnson and Jordon Brookshire at quarterback, but the two have combined to complete 53% of their passes with four touchdowns and two interceptions.

San Diego State ranks 120th in Passing Success Rate, and Brookshire is expected to start on Friday.


Aztecs Defense

San Diego State’s offensive style play of game complements its dominant defense.

The Aztecs rank second in the country against the run (50 YPG) and third in Rushing Success Rate. The Aztecs are also seventh in total yards (270.4 YPG) and No. 16 in scoring defense (16.6 PPG).

San Diego State thrives on disrupting its opponents’ flow on offense. The Aztecs sit second in Havoc, tied for 17th in sacks (18) and 30th in pass-rush grade.

They also rank 17th in Finishing Drives. San Diego State will match up very well with San Jose State’s offense.

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San Jose State Spartans

Spartans Offense

The Spartans have been without starting quarterback Starkel for the last two games, and it’s been Nash under center.

Head coach Brent Brennan has been tight-lipped about who will start, but at this point, I would assume it’s Nash. In the Spartans’ last two games, Nash picked apart a dreadful New Mexico defense but struggled last week at Colorado State.

At any rate, the Spartans need to generate more offense. San Jose State ranks 113th in scoring offense (20.5 PPG) but 28th in Finishing Drives. It also stands 116th in Passing Success Rate, 84th in Havoc Allowed, and 89th in pass blocking.

The Spartans don’t try to establish the run much, but they aren’t very successful when they do, ranking 98th in Rushing Success Rate.


Spartans Defense

San Jose State had been doing just enough to hold the fort while its offense struggled. However, the Spartans struggled to defend an undermanned Colorado State squad last week.

Even without its starting running back and top receiver, Colorado State put up 449 yards of total offense against San Jose State.

Against San Diego State’s offense, the Spartans will have an advantage in both Pass Success and Havoc, along with limiting explosive plays


San Diego State vs. San Jose State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how San Diego State and San Jose State match up statistically:

San Diego State Offense vs. San Jose State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 24 89
Line Yards 83 90
Pass Success 120 84
Pass Blocking** 30 84
Big Play 71 47
Havoc 68 27
Finishing Drives 90 93
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

San Jose State Offense vs. San Diego State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 98 3
Line Yards 78 2
Pass Success 116 12
Pass Blocking** 89 30
Big Play 71 9
Havoc 84 2
Finishing Drives 28 17
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 78 25
Coverage 3 27
Middle 8 20 34
SP+ Special Teams 31 55
Plays per Minute 113 64
Rush Rate 69.% (5) 46.1% (114)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


San Diego State vs. San Jose State Betting Pick

Against the three best teams on its schedule — USC, Western Michigan, and Colorado State — San Jose State has averaged eight PPG and had an margin of defeat of 20.3 PPG.

San Diego State will be the best defense that San Jose State has faced this season, and I don’t expect the Spartans to generate much offense.

San Jose State is not going to be able to run the ball with much success. Meanwhile, San Diego State ranks third in coverage. The Spartans’ passing attack will have not much luck either, especially with all the pressure that San Diego State will create.

San Jose State’s run defense is not terrible, but it will be at a disadvantage against San Diego State’s rushing attack. I expect the Aztecs will control the game with its running attack and dominate on defense.

Usually, when there is such a low total, there’s a temptation to take the underdog because points will be at a premium.

However, at -9.5 there is still enough wiggle to back the Aztecs. I like San Diego State to win this game by double digits, and I would take the spread up to -11.5.

Pick:  San Diego State -9.5 

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