Troy vs. South Carolina Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can the Trojans Keep it Close (Saturday, Oct. 2)

Troy vs. South Carolina Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can the Trojans Keep it Close (Saturday, Oct. 2) article feature image
Credit:

Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images

  • The Troy Trojans and South Carolina Gamecocks hit the field in college football action Saturday afternoon
  • The line is moving toward the Trojans, and that's where Shawn Burns sees betting value.
  • Check out Burns' betting breakdown below, including odds, picks, and predictions.

Troy vs. South Carolina Odds

Troy Odds +6.5 (-105)
South Carolina Odds -6.5 (-115)
Moneyline +205 / -255
Over/Under 43.5
Time 3:30 p.m. ET
TV SEC Network
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Troy heads to Williams-Brice Stadium to face South Carolina in Saturday’s action.

Both teams are 2-2 and coming off disappointing losses. Troy lost as a huge favorite to Louisiana Monroe, while South Carolina suffered a hard-fought home defeat against Kentucky.

Chip Lindsey, who’s in his third season as head coach at Troy, has a team with a lot talent that can compete in the Sun Belt, but they can’t have devastating turnovers and penalties like endured in the shocking loss to Louisiana Monroe.

The Trojans will need to be locked in and ready to compete against this SEC program.

Shane Beamer is four games into his tenure as head coach at South Carolina and the rebuild has begun. The Gamecocks’ losses have been against two undefeated opponents, but moral victories will only you take you so far when playing in the SEC.

After this game against Troy, the chances are good South Carolina will only be favored in one more game the rest of the way.

Beamer looks to be up for the challenge, but it will likely be a few seasons before the Gamecocks are ready to contend in the SEC East.


Troy vs. South Carolina Betting Preview

Saturday, Oct. 2
3:30 p.m. ET
SEC Network

Troy Trojans

Troy Offense

Traditionally, Troy has had a high-powered passing attack. However, since its blowout win over Southern to start the season, the Trojans have only averaged 16 points per game.

Missouri transfer Taylor Powell has started all four games at quarterback and has been solid, throwing for seven touchdowns and only three interceptions, but he’s only averaging 7.2 yards per pass attempt. The offense has been unable to create enough explosive plays to sustain drives and score points.

The biggest issue with the offense has been the rushing attack, which has been one of the nation’s worst. Troy is 126th in the country in yards per game.

In the last three outings, the Trojans have rushed for a combined 137 yards.


Troy Defense

No doubt, the Trojans have struggled on offensive, but defensively, they have one of the best units in all of college football. They’re fourth in the country in total defense, fourth in tackles for loss and second in total sacks. They attack relentlessly and play behind the line of scrimmage.

Troy held future Liberty quarterback and future NFL draft pick Malik Willis to 154 yards passing, which is his lowest outpoint of the season.

Carlton Martial is Troy’s defensive leader and leads the team in tackles. Martial has an unmatched motor, pursuing sideline to sideline with the best linebackers in the country.

He’s the top defensive player in the Sun Belt Conference and has a future at the next level.

The must-have app for college football bettors

The best NCAAF betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

South Carolina Gamecocks

South Carolina Offense

South Carolina has had to play multiple quarterbacks due to injuries, which opened the door for Zeb Noland. He actually started this season as a graduate assistant on the coaching staff. Noland led the team to wins over Eastern Illinois and East Carolina.

Last season’s starter — Luke Doty — has worked himself back from a foot injury and regained the starting position.

The offense has had issues moving the ball no matter who’s been at quarterback. The Gamecocks have yet to score more than 20 points against an FBS opponent.

The rushing game, which was supposed to be a strength coming into the season, has been non-existent.

South Carolina returned four starters on the offensive line and running back Kevin Harris, who rushed for more than 1,000 yards and 15 touchdowns in 2020.

Harris is only averaging 2.9 yards per carry and the Gamecocks are 11th in the SEC in rushing.

The offensive line has also allowed nine sacks, which has hampered their ability to extend drives.


South Carolina Defense 

Much like Troy, South Carolina’s defense has been dominant to start the season, allowing 18 points per game. The unit has already faced strong rushing attacks in Georgia and Kentucky and held up well when you consider their offensive struggles.

The pass defense has been impressive, led by Jaylan Foster, who leads the team in tackles and the country in interceptions with four. The defense has forced 10 turnovers, which is tied for sixth in the country.

Against Kentucky, the Gamecocks won the turnover battle by a 3-0 margin and still found a way to come up short.

The Troy offense throws the ball on more than 60% of its plays, which should create a few turnover opportunities for this opportunistic defense.


Troy vs. South Carolina Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Troy and South Carolina match up statistically:

Troy Offense vs. South Carolina Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 89 60
Line Yards 119 100
Pass Success 66 69
Pass Blocking** 68 13
Big Play 62 33
Havoc 74 62
Finishing Drives 109 10
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

South Carolina Offense vs. Troy Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 100 17
Line Yards 110 11
Pass Success 101 33
Pass Blocking** 118 67
Big Play 106 38
Havoc 76 2
Finishing Drives 112 37
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 85 68
PFF Coverage 71 18
Middle 8 35 86
SP+ Special Teams 74 18
Plays per Minute 69 111
Rush Rate 44.7% (116) 58.2% (49)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Troy vs. South Carolina Betting Pick

Our Action Network analysis above clearly shows that the defenses have the upper hand in this matchup.

A key statistic that jumps out is the Havoc ranking for the Troy defense. The Trojans have a very disruptive unit, ranking second in the country in the category.

The Action Network analytics projections also show a strong play toward the Trojans. Troy might have been looking ahead to this game when it stumbled last week and now, South Carolina is in a challenging spot with Tennessee on the horizon next week.

That said, this is a great spot to take the underdog. It should be will be a low-scoring game, so I’m taking the points with the Trojans.

Pick: Troy +7

How would you rate this article?