College Football Odds, Predictions, Picks for USC vs. Colorado: Saturday’s Betting Value on the Trojans (Oct. 2)

College Football Odds, Predictions, Picks for USC vs. Colorado: Saturday’s Betting Value on the Trojans (Oct. 2) article feature image
Credit:

Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: USC Trojans interim head coach Donte Williams.

  • The USC Trojans and Colorado Buffaloes hit the field in Pac-12 college football action on Saturday afternoon.
  • The Trojans' line has been moving throughout the past couple of days, as they now find themselves nearing 10-point favorites.
  • Check out Keg's betting preview below, including odds, picks, and predictions based on his analysis.

USC vs. Colorado Odds

USC Odds -9.5 (-109)
Colorado Odds +9.5 (-114)
Moneyline -400 / +280
Over/Under 51
Time 2 p.m. ET
TV Pac-12 Network
Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

After an embarrassing loss to Oregon State, the USC Trojans will look to get back on track Saturday against Colorado.

Meanwhile, the Buffaloes are also looking to right the ship and snap their three-game losing streak.

Both these teams have had disappointing starts to a season in which they were expected to at least come close to competing in the Pac-12.

After firing Clay Helton, the Trojans appeared to have figured things out against Washington State until quarterback Jaxson Dart got hurt.

Can this USC program get a win against one of the worst-graded offenses in the country? Or is it time to chalk this season up as a wash and start interviewing new head coaches?


USC vs. Colorado Betting Preview

Saturday, Oct. 2
2 p.m. ET
Pac-12 Network

USC Trojans

USC Offense

This season couldn’t be going worse for the Trojans, and it’s not getting any better.

Last week, they had their first loss at home to Oregon State in 61 years.

Quarterback Kedon Slovis hasn’t been awful, but he hasn’t been winning games either. He’s completing 64.3% of his passes, but the main issues last week were drops and turnovers. USC had four turnovers that resulted in 20 points for Oregon State.

The Trojans are averaging 32.5 points per game while ranking 47th in pass yards. However, it’ll be interesting to see if they can maintain those numbers against a Colorado defense that ranks No. 1 in defensive red zone efficiency and is 20th in points allowed.


USC Defense

Last week, the USC defense allowed 535 yards at home to the Beavers, continuing the trend of not being able to stop the pass against anyone this season.

The Trojans rank 127th in Defensive Pass Success and 115th in Defensive Rush Success.

It hasn’t been all negative for USC. The Trojans have been able to stop teams in the red zone, where they rank 14th in defensive red zone efficiency.

They’re also currently allowing 27 points per game on average and limiting the run to 4.8 yards per carry.

This week, the Trojans face one of the worst offensive teams in the country, so it should be easier for this defense compared to what they’ve faced so far.

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Colorado Buffaloes

Colorado Offense

This Colorado offense has been tough to watch, and that’s putting it nicely. They rank 127th in scoring average with only 13.8 points per game and 128th in yards per game, averaging 239 per contest.

In the past three games, this Colorado team has scored 20 points combined. Quarterback Brendon Lewis is completing 52% of his passes. Last week against Arizona State, he went 7-of-17 and had just 67 passing yards.

This offense has struggled, and it’s hard to see them getting better this week, even against USC in a down year.

If they can score more than 17 points, I would be impressed.


Colorado Defense

The past two teams the Buffaloes played have scored 30 points or more on their defensive unit.

While they were able to hold Texas A&M to just 10 points in the game prior, that was largely due to the fact that the Aggies’ quarterback got hurt and exited the game.

The defense ranks 135th in the nation.

And while the USC defense grades out in most fields as worse than the Buffaloes, Colorado has played a lot worse competition.

They allowed at least 400 yards of total offense in the last two games and I would expect more of the same against USC this Saturday.

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USC vs. Colorado Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how USC and Colorado match up statistically:

USC Offense vs. Colorado Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 4 54
Line Yards 93 80
Pass Success 17 54
Pass Blocking** 34 127
Big Play 73 93
Havoc 64 104
Finishing Drives 6 81
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Colorado Offense vs. USC Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 41 115
Line Yards 72 84
Pass Success 127 127
Pass Blocking** 110 53
Big Play 106 103
Havoc 85 121
Finishing Drives 64 104
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 64 118
PFF Coverage 73 94
Middle 8 103 57
SP+ Special Teams 41 81
Plays per Minute 40 92
Rush Rate 39.4% (123) 65.2% (14)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


In its last five games following a loss of 20 points or more, Colorado is 0-5 against the spread. The Trojans are 11-4 ATS in the last 15 games after allowing 40 points or more.

Both these teams are struggling. Both defenses have been awful, but I think USC has a better team and has seen tougher competition. USC is 3-0 in the last three matchups between the two, outscoring Colorado 104-75 in those matchups.

I don’t see the Trojans giving up two historical losses in a row. They’ve never lost to Colorado in this series (14-0). The Trojans should be able to at least get one more win this season this week in Boulder.


USC vs. Colorado Betting Pick

This spread opened up at 6.5 and I was able to get it at -7 (-115) before it moved up to 7.5.

But I still feel confident in this USC number up to -9 (-110)

Pick:  USC -7 (-110)  up to -9 

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