College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for West Virginia vs. Baylor: How To Bet Saturday’s Big 12 Duel

College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for West Virginia vs. Baylor: How To Bet Saturday’s Big 12 Duel article feature image
Credit:

Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Jarret Doege.

  • Baylor hosts West Virginia in a Big 12 battle as the Mountaineers try to rebound from losing two in a row.
  • After defeating Iowa State in Week 4, the Bears were taken down by Oklahoma State in Week 5.
  • Doug Ziefel breaks down the matchup and offers up his best bet for the game.

West Virginia vs. Baylor Odds

West Virginia Odds +2.5 (-115)
Baylor Odds -2.5 (-105)
Moneyline +105 / -125
Over/Under 44 (-105 / -115)
Time 12 p.m. ET
TV FS1
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

We are in for a good one in Waco this weekend, as the West Virginia Mountaineers are set to face off against the Baylor Bears.

Both teams are coming off of a loss and are looking to rebound. The Mountaineers lost to Texas Tech while the Bears dropped one against Oklahoma State.

West Virginia has won six of the nine meetings between the two teams, but Baylor may be in a position to buck that trend.

“Close, but no cigar,” is an accurate way to describe how the past two games have ended for West Virginia. The Mountaineers have lost two straight, both to conference opponents and both on last-second field goals.

Here, they will face another conference opponent that will hold some significant edges in the matchup. Putting up points has been an issue, but any type of positive regression from this offense will work in our favor.

The Bears suffered their first loss of the season but had played surprisingly well before that. Was this past loss a look at who the Bears truly are, or will they get back to their winning ways?


West Virginia vs. Baylor Betting Preview

Saturday, Oct. 9
12 p.m. ET
FS1

West Virginia Mountaineers

West Virginia Offense

After being virtually shut down by Oklahoma two weeks ago, the West Virginia offense came to life in the second half against Texas Tech.

The Mountaineers stormed back from a 17-point halftime deficit to tie the game heading into the fourth quarter. Though they ultimately came up short, it is a good sign of things to come.

Quarterback Jarret Doege had his best game of the season, completing 75% of his passes for 318 yards. His performance was capped off with a strike to Isaiah Esdale to tie the game:

Isaiah Esdale had 7️⃣7️⃣ yards on 3️⃣ receptions that last drive, culminating in this touchdown! #HailWV pic.twitter.com/BI9mvcrIBs

— WVU Football (@WVUfootball) October 2, 2021

On the ground, running back Leddie Brown was unable to get much going, gaining only 57 yards against the Red Raiders with one touchdown.

Going forward, Brown will be critical to the success of the offense. His big day against Virginia Tech propelled the team to an upset victory three weeks ago.

If they want to pull another, Brown will need to be effective.


West Virginia Defense

The calling card of the Mountaineers’ defense has been their ability to stop the run.

They allow on average a minuscule 88 yards rushing per game, stemming from the defense’s ability to fill gaps and contain any runs that break past the line of scrimmage.

Once those gaps are filled, they do not miss as they rank eighth in the nation in tackling.

This Baylor rushing attack may be West Virginia’s toughest test yet since the Bears are second in Rushing Success this season. Stopping Baylor on the ground will be critical for West Virginia to hang around in this game.

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Baylor Bears

Baylor Offense

The reason for the Bears’ early success has been the play of their offensive line. They rank fifth in Line Yards and fourth in pass blocking and the unit has allowed them to dominate on the ground as they rush at nearly a 63% clip.

The two players who are thriving the most behind the stellar offensive line are the running back tandem of Abram Smith and Trestan Ebner. They have combined to rush for 858 yards at 6.8 yards per carry.

I mentioned previously that the Bears are fourth in pass blocking, which means quarterback Gerry Bohanon has enjoyed the time he has in the pocket.

Bohanon has completed nearly 67% of his passes and has thrown seven touchdown passes without an interception. He had a rough performance against Oklahoma State but in this matchup, he gets to return home where his completion percentage ticks up to 74%.

Bohanon has also tossed five of his seven touchdown passes at home this year.


Baylor Defense

This Baylor defense has been solid this season, holding opposing offenses to just 4.7 yards per play.

What keeps that number so minimal is the unit excelling against the pass. They are 16th in Passing Success.

Baylor has also benefited from the number of turnovers it has been able to create. This showed last week against the Cowboys, when the Bears had three interceptions.


West Virginia vs. Baylor Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how West Virginia and Baylor match up statistically:

West Virginia Offense vs. Baylor Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 71 54
Line Yards 105 31
Pass Success 50 16
Pass Blocking** 54 46
Big Play 71 85
Havoc 64 26
Finishing Drives 33 89
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Baylor Offense vs. West Virginia Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 2 22
Line Yards 5 127
Pass Success 72 92
Pass Blocking** 4 92
Big Play 9 3
Havoc 84 28
Finishing Drives 33 27
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 8 114
PFF Coverage 94 63
Middle 8 15 65
SP+ Special Teams 79 19
Plays per Minute 89 107
Rush Rate 49.5% (96) 62.8% (23)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


The Bears are going to hold significant advantages in the trenches on the offensive side of the ball.

I anticipate Baylor will have sustained success running the ball as the Mountaineer rank 127th in Line Yards.

On the other side, I am encouraged by the spark shown by West Virginia’s offense. They seemed to have figured things out in that second half against Texas Tech.

As long as they can avoid turnovers, the Mountaineers should keep up with Baylor.


West Virginia vs. Baylor Betting Pick

Baylor’s offense should have few issues moving the ball against West Virginia and I expect the Mountaineers to come out swinging and test the Bears as they rank 85th in Big Plays Allowed.

Aside from what will happen on the field, the total in this game is simply too low. The over has hit in both of Baylor’s home games this season and I fully expect it to hit again at the lowest number the total has been set at all season.

Pick: Over 44.5 (Play to 46.5)

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