Wilson: My Projected College Football Over/Unders for All Week 10 Games

Wilson: My Projected College Football Over/Unders for All Week 10 Games article feature image
Credit:

Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: DeAnte Ford

  • Collin Wilson has projected over/unders for each college football game on the Week 10 slate.
  • Compare his projected totals to the current lines to determine which games are offering value.

Forrest Gump once described the different kinds of rain as…

“Little bitty stingin’ rain, big ol’ fat rain, rain that flew in sideways… it even rained at night.”

Forrest, a former kick returner for the Crimson Tide, was obviously referring to every college football game in Week 9. From Muncie to Ann Arbor to Murfreesboro, rain of all different kinds had an affect on sides and totals.

My plays in The Action Network App last week went well, where a sweep of the totals confirmed that our projections can be a great tool to use in your handicapping. Combining yards per play, plays per game, run rate and finishing drives is a good indicator of a team’s potential on both sides of the ball.

Some of the teams mentioned in this column previously are still struggling to get points in opponent territory, and are prime targets for under wagers in Week 10.

Straight from the five factors, finishing drives is a measure of points per trip inside the opponent’s 40 yard line. Red zone points per attempt takes a look at not only conversions, but if a team gets in the end zone over kicking field goals.

Those are two things I’m focused on when handicapping totals this week and every week.

This week, Utah State remains the worst team in the country in points per red zone trip. And no matter who is under center for BYU, the Cougars rank 128th in red zone points per attempt, making that matchup a prime under spot.

So how do totals get made? Oddsmakers assign a total point value to each FBS team, then adjust for weather and pace to make a game total.

Our total projections below are a combination of plays per game, yards per play and adjusted pace. Ratings in standard and passing downs run rate also dictate movement in a projection. Oddsmakers adjust totals based on game results, while our projections rely on a bit of mathematics.

Be sure to check out the The Action Network power ratings that are built as result of injuries, true box score results and advanced stats to find betting value on opening point spreads. Our Week 10 projected point spreads are here.

Follow me in The Action Network App to see when I bet opening lines early in the week.

Projected College Football Totals, Week 10

[In New Jersey? Bet Week 10 college football totals at PointsBet]

Notes on Totals for Week 10

  • The early forecast calls for wet weather in Boone, N.C., where Appalachian State will host Georgia Southern on Thursday night. Rain should clear out before Friday’s kick of Navy at UConn.
  • Winds are projected greater than 15 mph when Rutgers visits Illinois, per Sports Insights.
  • Wake Forest, Tulsa and SMU sit atop the plays per game leaderboard after Week 9. The Demon Deacons take on NC State in Week 10, which averages a hefty 76 plays per game. The Wolfpack are top 30 in red zone scoring percentage.
  • Kansas continues its increase in plays per game with a full season average of 65. The Jayhawks have average 73 snaps per game in their past three games.
  • Oklahoma has the highest differential in net yards per play at +4.4. Ohio State (+3.6), Clemson (+3.4) and Alabama (+3.2) round out the top.
  • UTSA is now at the bottom of the board in negative yards per play differential at -3.4. Bowling Green, Old Dominion and UNLV round out the teams with a differential more than -2 yards per play.

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