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After a nice appetizer on Thursday and Friday, Saturday's Week 6 college football slate is finally upon us.
We have a very solid slate on deck with No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 6 Alabama, No. 21 UCLA vs. No. 13 Oregon and No. 1 Texas vs. Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry.
But before we get there, we have a nice noon slate to watch and bet. Our staff came through with picks for UNC vs. PittIowa vs. Nebraska, Texas A&M vs. Missouri and South Carolina vs. Florida.
We cover that game and more in our college football picks and NCAAF predictions for the noon games on Saturday, October 10.
Be sure to download the Action Network app for more expert picks and analysis!
College Football Picks, Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Saturday's slate of noon games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 12:45 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
North Carolina vs. Pitt Pick
By Stuckey
For starters, these teams have a pretty big strength-of-schedule disparity.
The Heels have played a top-15 schedule to date with games against TCU overseason to start the season, a road game at Clemson it arguably would've won without a rain delay (and certainly should've covered) and then a home game vs. Notre Dame last week.
Meanwhile, Pitt has a strength of schedule that ranks outside the top 80 nationally with four home wins to start the season against Miami (OH), Syracuse, UCF and Bucknell.
The Panthers did pick up an enormous road win last week against Virginia Tech, but the Hokies outgained them by over 200 yards, 499-295.
Thanks to a +4 turnover margin, they ended up winning by two after John Love shockingly missed a game-winning chip-shot field goal.
Plus, the newly-ranked Panthers must now make do without starting quarterback Mason Heintschel, who suffered a season-ending injury last week.
I believe it's a pretty significant drop-off to senior Holden Geriner, who has served as a third-string backup at both Auburn and Texas State over the past four seasons.
UNC's defense does a tremendous job limiting explosive plays, which will force Geriner to methodically drive the field.
I'm willing to bet he can't do that consistently without misfiring on throws or taking a sack against a UNC front that can get after opposing quarterbacks and create Havoc, especially with the Heels now having their best defensive player in Melkart Abou Jaoude back in the lineup.
There are some other injuries worth monitoring along the defensive line, but they should have enough juice to create pressure on known passing downs.
On the other side of the ball, as always, you have to hit explosives against the Pat Narduzzi defense that frequently leaves its cornerbacks out on islands.
I'll trust offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino (who has done an admirable job in that department to date) to scheme up enough of those to keep UNC close throughout.
For what it's worth, Narduzzi has gone just 13-24 ATS (35.1%) as a home favorite of more than four points, including 6-15 ATS (28.6%) in conference games.
Check out all of Stuckey's Week 6 situational spots below:
Pick: North Carolina +4 or Better
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Indiana vs. Nebraska Pick
By Bet Labs
Saturday's Indiana vs. Nebraska game in the Big Ten fits a historically profitable betting system from our Bet Labs database.
Called "High Wind, Low Adjustment," this is a college football system built on the idea that extreme wind conditions disrupt offensive rhythm more than the betting market accounts for.
During the regular season, when average wind speed ranges from nine to 100 miles per hour, passing efficiency drops, field goals become riskier, and teams lean more on conservative play-calling.
Yet, if the betting total only shifts a few points from open to close, the market is signaling little adjustment to these conditions.
By focusing on games where the home spread is within 19.5 points in either direction, the system avoids lopsided blowouts and targets contests expected to remain competitive.
When the closing total falls between 47.5 and 69.5, it represents a middle scoring range where weather can have the greatest impact.
This combination of high wind and limited market reaction consistently creates value on the under.
Pick: Under 47.5
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Texas A&M vs. Missouri Pick
By Jordan Vanek
The only quarterbacks Texas A&M has held under this number are Arkansas' KJ Jackson and Missouri State's Skyler Locklear.
LSU's Sam Leavitt threw for 312 yards on 25 dropbacks, Kentucky's Kenny Minchey had 252 on 23 dropbacks, and Arizona State's Cutter Boley finished with 254 on 38 dropbacks.
Austin Simmons has been a better passer than every QB mentioned, so this number is simply too low.
Against Power 4 competition, Simmons has thrown for at least 290 yards in every game, including 340 yards against Florida last week.
The common theme in the biggest passing performances against Texas A&M has been bigger WRs making plays downfield, and that's exactly where Donovan Olugbode thrives.
Reed Harris had 189 yards, Jackson Harris had 163, and even Chris Marshall reached 76 yards in a game where Jackson struggled.
All three receivers are over 6-foot-1 and have legitimate size, much like Olugbode, who has been one of Simmons' primary targets this season.
Check out all of Vanek's Week 6 Underdog plays below:
Pick: Austin Simmons Higher Than 243.5 Passing Yards
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South Carolina vs. Florida Pick
Florida crushed Ole Miss at home two weeks ago, 52-28, while generating nearly 500 yards of total offense.
And home-field dominance has been a theme for UF early in head coach Jon Sumrall’s tenure. The Gators are averaging 57 points per game at The Swamp, covering both games against FBS competition by 19.5 points each.
Sumrall, now on his third school in five years, has gone 10-7 ATS as a double-digit favorite, which is a solid hit rate. But it’s not the 59% ATS record in those spots; it’s the fact that he’s bested the closing number by 10 or more points in six of those 10 covers.
Translation: When he has a chance to run it up on an overwhelmed opponent, he shows no mercy.
If there was ever a team in need of mercy, it’s South Carolina.
The Gamecocks are 1-10 in their last 11 SEC games and have blown double-digit leads in three of their last four conference games dating back to the end of last season.
Making matters worse is that their best player, Dylan Stewart, is suspended indefinitely. Stewart punched Alabama tight end Josh Ford in the helmet two weeks ago and clashed with coaches who tried to remove him from the game.
But that’s only the tip of the iceberg. This program-wide tailspin has head coach Shane Beamer’s seat lava hot. Beamer has gone 6-12 straight up across his last 18 games, but his buyout is making it difficult for the university to move on.
If he were to be fired today, the university would still be on the hook for $24 million, and that figure would only drop to $22.8 million by season’s end. So for the time being, South Carolina is stuck with Beamer in this uncontrolled nose dive.
Alabama jumped on South Carolina in the Gamecocks’ first road game of the season, roaring out to a 35-3 lead before coasting to a 31-point win as a 12.5-point favorite.
Florida is poised to do the same, and I expect laser-like focus from its offense following a dud against Missouri over the weekend.
Offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner is a run-game genius, but last week, his offense couldn’t get anything going on the ground against Mizzou. The Tigers have a fierce defensive front and rank 15th against the run.
Luckily for Florida, South Carolina can’t stop a runny nose.
The Gamecocks rank 13th in total defense out of 16 teams in SEC play. It’s an even uglier story against conference foes in terms of scoring defense (41.7 PPG allowed, dead last in SEC).
Running back Jadan Baugh will set the tone early on the ground, and from there, the Gators will face little resistance from a South Carolina program on the verge of collapse.
Reports out of Columbia indicate a burgeoning quarterback battle between LaNorris Sellers and Cutter Woods, and Sellers has struggled on the road since last season. If they pull Sellers, the bottom falls out.
From a money management standpoint, this is a two-unit play. I'll put one full unit on Florida laying the 14 and then four alternate line wagers at .25 units apiece: -20.5 at +167, -23.5 at +233, -27.5 at +360, -34.5 at +760.
Pick: Florida -11.5
