College Football Player Props: Our Top Bets for Week 4, Including JT Daniels & Will Rogers (September 25)
John Adams/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: JT Daniels.
We were one Jarret Doege touchdown pass away from sweeping last week’s player props. Nonetheless, we went 3-1 last Saturday, pushing our 2021 record to 5-2.
Here’s what we have on tap for Week 4 courtesy of PrizePicks, which is available in 30 states.
Georgia QB J.T. Daniels, Over/Under 295.5 Passing Yards
Daniels has been solid for Georgia ever since taking the reins late last season.
The USC transfer has shattered this total in four of his six career starts with the Bulldogs, including a 303-yard performance last Saturday against South Carolina.
This week, it’s the running backs who get to light up the stat sheet.
Georgia has four talented prospects in Zamir White, Kendall Milton, James Cook and Kenny McIntosh, who have combined to post just 5.0 yards per clip and three total touchdowns this year.
This week, the group draws a Vanderbilt front seven allowing the second-most yards per rush (6.8) among Power Five defenses. Any bottled-up frustration will be unleashed.
Daniels played one series into the fourth quarter last week versus the Gamecocks. Considering the Bulldogs are laying 35.5 points, he might not see the fourth at all.
Plus, with Arkansas and Auburn on deck, Smart would be wise to keep the playbook simple.
In layman’s terms: Run the damn ball, Kirby.
Pick: Under 295.5.
Mississippi State QB Will Rogers, Over/Under 264.5 Passing Yards
It’s a sweet matchup for Rogers here in a potential track meet.
Mississippi State leads the country in pass-play percentage (77.1%); the Bulldogs are the only offense throwing the ball on more than 70% of snaps.
LSU’s defense, meanwhile, doesn’t hold a candle to the star-studded 2019 unit. The Tigers own the seventh-worst Explosive Pass Rate allowed and rank 108th nationally in yards per completion (14.4).
The defense will certainly adjust after getting sliced up for 623 passing yards and five touchdowns last year. While it can’t possibly be worse, this is an exploitable total on Rogers, who’s crushed this number in all three contests this season.
Pick: Over 264.5.
Boston College WR Zay Flowers, Over/Under 68.5 Receiving Yards
Flowers is one of the most underrated receivers in the ACC.
He finished second in the conference in yards last season (892), becoming only the second Eagle wideout ever to be named first-team All-ACC.
However, with quarterback Phil Jurkovec sidelined, Flowers becomes pure fade material.
The slot receiver saw a season-low 62.5% of snaps last weekend against Temple with backup Dennis Grosel running the show. The senior quarterback sapped the life out of the passing offense, going just 7-of-15 with 59 yards, one touchdown and one interception.
Saturday’s opponent, Missouri, is allowing the second-highest Explosive Rush Rate defensively. This isn’t a good week to buy the BC receivers, so we’ll go under on their top target’s yards.
Pick: Under 68.5.
TCU QB Max Duggan, Over/Under 42.5 Rushing Yards
Duggan was a big-play machine with his legs last season. He picked up 10 touchdowns on the ground and nearly three times as many big-play runs as the next-best Big 12 quarterback.
He picked up right where he left off two weeks ago versus Cal, racking up 71 yards on a whopping 19 attempts.
Duggan will be a nightmare in the open field against an SMU defense ranking 121st in tackling. Add in the fact that it’s a rivalry game, and Duggan should have some added motivation.
Pick: Over 42.5.