College Football Predictions, Pick: Stuckey’s Week 12 Bets for Penn State vs Michigan State, UCF vs Texas Tech

As I do each and every week, I will share my favorite betting spots for Saturday's college football card. Week 12 is upon us, and I have seven spots I'm looking to bet on Saturday.

My primary goal here is to discuss a few key angles, notable matchups, regression signals and injury situations for each game, hopefully helping you make more informed wagers.

I write most of these up after betting them, and I log them in the Action App immediately. For reference, I'll note what I'd still play each to.

It was a profitable but unspectacular 6-5 result in Week 11 (excluding Georgia live, which came through with ease). As always, it's onto the next.

Looking ahead to this weekend, I have highlighted my seven favorite Week 12 spots. Let's close the season strong.

• 2022-24: 169-123-1 (57.9%)
• 2025: 45-39-2 (53.6%)
• Overall: 214-162-3 (56.9%)

Let's dive into my college football predictions and NCAAF picks for Saturday's Week 12 slate.

College Football Predictions, Picks

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
	3:30 p.m.	Michigan State +7.5
	3:30 p.m.	UCF +24
	3:30 p.m.	Texas State +4.5
	4:30 p.m.	North Carolina +6.5 · WF TT Under 22.5
	6 p.m.	Georgia Southern -2.5
	10 p.m.	Washington State -7
	10:30 p.m.	Wyoming +4.5

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Michigan State +7.5 vs. Penn State

3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS

It's pretty amazing that both of these teams started 3-0 and then dropped six straight to start Big 10 play.

While that's maybe not too surprising for the Spartans, it certainly is for a Penn State squad that started the season ranked No. 2.

This particular bet is almost entirely a pure spot fade of Penn State following a heartbreaking loss to undefeated Indiana in the final minute last Saturday.

The Nittany Lions clearly put forth an all-in effort in what became their Super Bowl in a lost season. That result also came after road games against Iowa and Ohio State.

Can the Nittany Lions get up off the mat for a fourth straight week for a pretty meaningless game in East Lansing against Michigan State? I'll make them prove they can win by a margin here.

Meanwhile, Michigan State will benefit from coming off a much-needed bye week. Keep in mind this has been one of the most injury-ravaged Power Conference teams in the country, so I'd expect them to be in much better shape injury-wise following the two-week break.

The Spartans did even start to get a bit healthier before the bye, which led to some more promising results, including an absolute highway robbery loss at Minnesota in overtime, in which they out-gained the Gophers 467-301.

That was the best the offense has looked all year, with Alessio Milivojevic getting his first career start at quarterback. He averaged 11.1 yards per attempt (20-for-28, 311), which is something Aidan Chiles has never done in his career.

While head coach Jonathan Smith has yet to name a starter for this week, I'd imagine the freshman gets the nod once again this week. However, I wouldn't rule out some packages or Chiles throughout the game.

The spot is priced in a bit, but I'm still okay taking over a touchdown against a Penn State team that could come out completely flat out of the gates, while Smith should have a plus script coming out of the bye.

If Michigan State can jump on the Nittany Lions early, will they show enough fight in a season that has spiraled out of control? We shall see.

Pick: Michigan State +7.5 or Better

UCF +24 at Texas Tech

3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX

Getting in front of this Texas Tech train is certainly not for the faint of heart, but I do show value from a pure numbers perspective on the Knights.

Plus, I'm not sure we get a maximum effort from the Red Raiders following their dismantling of BYU in last week's highly anticipated Big 12 showdown for first place.

More importantly, the Texas Tech offense is not firing on all cylinders at the moment. I believe a lot of that has to do with the health of quarterback Behren Morton, who continues to push through a hairline fracture in his fibula.

He was clearly hobbled last week against the Cougars and will be extremely limited in practice this week while wearing a boot. While I do expect him to play, I doubt he'll be close to 100%.

Plus, I'd imagine Texas Tech has to play it cautiously with him, especially with backup Will Hammond injured. He likely won't scramble much at all (which is essential since one of UCF's prominent warts on defense is containing running quarterbacks), and Tech could go more run-heavy and/or pull him out with a lead sooner than usual.

All of those potential outcomes would help the large road pup that has featured a borderline top-30 defense this season.

I can't believe I'm saying that in mid-November with Alex Grinch at the helm, but I have to give credit where credit is due. UCF doesn't allow much through the air, and Tech doesn't boast the most deadly rushing attack. The UCF defense can hold its own here.

Now, how will UCF move the ball? That's a great question, especially given the uncertainty about who will even start at quarterback for the Knights.

Per my ratings, Tech has a top-five defense nationally in large part due to an absolutely lethal defensive line.

I doubt UCF will have much time for drop-back passing, so it will have to rely on its ground game, with the quarterback playing a significant role.

There aren't many warts on this Tech defensive profile, but mobile quarterbacks have had a modicum of success, and teams can hit occasional rush explosives.

I also don't mind the under in a game where I believe points will come at a premium, which makes the large underdog even more intriguing.

Keep in mind, this UCF team just closed as only a field goal underdog at Baylor a few weeks ago. While Texas Tech is in a different class than the Bears, the gap certainly isn't 21 points, in my opinion.

Can UCF get to 14? I think so, mostly in garbage time. And that should be all it takes against a potentially lethargic Red Raiders squad playing with a limited quarterback who can't suffer any injury setbacks ahead of postseason play.

Tech has bigger fish to fry this season, so I'm not sure how concerned they will be with blowing out a UCF squad that I expect to show up here with bowl aspirations still in play.

Pick: UCF +24 or Better

Texas State +4.5 at Southern Miss

3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+

Southern Miss will host Texas State in a game with massive implications for both teams in the Sun Belt East division.

Oh, wait, never mind. Scratch that. I forgot Texas State has been cursed all year and sits at 0-5 in league play.

The Bobcats deserved to lose against JMU, but take a look at their other four losses:

• By one at Arkansas State (521-398 yardage edge; missed XP followed by last-second TD)
• OT vs. Troy (574-458 yardage edge; missed game-winning field goal after blowing 21-point lead)
• Double OT vs. Marshall (558-466 yardage edge; gave up last-minute TD in regulation)
• By three vs. Louisiana (528-384 yardage edge; failed on multiple two-point attempts)

Yup, you read that all of that correctly.

Four losses have come by three or fewer or in overtime, while they've out-gained those four opponents by nearly 500 total yards (2,181-1,706). They've also been pretty unlucky in several different high-variance categories.

The offense continues to move the ball at will on opposing defenses. For the season, the Bobcats rank 15th nationally in yards per play (6.6).

However, the defense has let GJ Kinne's group down week after week, allowing opponents to average six yards per play (106th nationally). For reference, Southern Miss sits at 5.9 and 5.0, respectively.

From a net yards perspective, there's not much difference despite Texas State (which has a slight EPA per Play margin advantage) playing the much more difficult schedule.

That lines up with where I rate these Sun Belt foes, as I don't see much difference between them on a neutral field. Texas State has just been snakebit, while the opposite has held for the Golden Eagles, who sit all alone atop the division standings at 5-0.

But let's take a closer look at their conference wins:

• 38-22 over App State (out-gained 470-389; Mountaineers had three separate 1H drives of 65-plus yards end in an interception, including a 99-yard pick six that actually wasn't an interception. Then, App State lost its QB to injury for the 2H)
• 38-35 at Georgia Southern (421-395 yardage edge)
• 22-10 over Louisiana (371-356 yardage edge)
• 49-21 over a decimated ULM team (445-312 yardage edge)
• 27-21 over Arkansas State (528-456 yardage edge)

In their five Sun Belt games, they out-gained their opponents (none of which have a winning record) by 165 total yards (2,154-1,989).

If we include Texas State's blowout loss to JMU, the Bobcats have out-gained their five league opponents by almost double that amount (316) — and the Golden Eagles didn't have to play the class of the league in the Dukes.

Additionally, Southern Miss had a whopping 18 takeaways (and a +12 turnover margin) in those five victories, including six last week in a one-possession win over Arkansas State. That's not sustainable.

Don't be surprised if Texas State (which has a -7 turnover margin in 2025) gets a few key bounces on Saturday in Hattiesburg.

It's worth noting that Texas State did receive suspensions following a brawl at the end of last week's game. Only two of those are really impactful, with both coming on the defensive side of the ball. However, it's not like the defense can get any worse.

Both offenses should find plenty of success throughout in a game that will likely come down to which team has the ball last. If that's indeed how it plays out, I'm happy to take the points with the road dog.

You might worry that the Bobcats have some quit in them after all of the close losses, but I haven't seen that at all. I expect them to show up here against the first-place Golden Eagles, especially since they are likely to make a bowl if they can pull off the minor upset.

Lastly, while I expect Southern Miss quarterback Braylon Braxton to play, he tweaked his knee in last week's victory and didn't look entirely right after returning to the game.

Ultimately, this is just a perfect buy-low/sell-high spot in a matchup of one unlucky team vs. a very fortunate one.

Pick: Texas State +4 or Better

North Carolina +6.5 at Wake Forest & WF Team Total Under 22.5

4:30 p.m. ET ⋅ The CW

Wake Forest has raced out to a surprise 6-3 start in large part due to an extremely stingy defense that ranks in the top-30 nationally adjusted for opponent.

However, the offense continues to struggle for a group that ranks outside the top-100 nationally.

The Demon Deacons still rotate quarterbacks and have no reliable downfield passing attack. They also have one of the worst red-zone offenses in the country. Despite those issues, the defense has helped them prevail in four of their five one-possession games.

With that said, without some timely stops, a miraculous 52-yard game-winning field goal against SMU, and Virginia's quarterback going down, this could easily be a 4-5 football team heading into the final three weeks of the season.

Keep in mind, Virginia out-gained the Demon Deacons last week 327-203 but couldn't overcome a -3 turnover margin, a punt return touchdown, and an early injury to Chandler Morris.

For reference, North Carolina out-gained the Hoos (with a healthy Morris) 353-259 in a one-point overtime loss in which they came up one inch short on a game-winning two-point conversion attempt.

If not for a pair of fumbles at the goal line in October, the Heels would be winners of four straight in large part due to their defense, which has been playing at an unbelievable level over the past month.

If we flipped just one or two plays against Cal and Virginia, North Carolina would be coming into this game at 6-3 with much more buzz after a slow start to the season.

If that were the case, this line would be closer to a field goal, which is where I think it should be. There's just not much separating these teams at the moment. Plus, points will be at an extreme premium in this game, as evidenced by a super low total of 38.5

I guess we shouldn't be surprised Bill Belichick has figured out the defensive side of the ball. He's only one of the greatest defensive minds in football history.

Bill and the UNC defensive staff (headlined by his son) made several mid-season schematic tweaks up front that have really paid dividends.

Look no further than the past four games, where the Heels have held opposing rushing attacks to 288 total yards on 132 attempts. That's a ridiculous 2.2 yards per attempt.

Now, that does include sacks, but those are worth mentioning, as the Heels have accumulated 20 total in those four games. The defensive line is playing out of its mind, while the linebackers and safeties are cleaning up everything at the second level.

If there were one weakness on the defense at the moment, it would be at cornerback, especially without the injured Thad Dixon. However, that's not really a concern against Wake Forest's anemic aerial attack.

UNC can shut down the Wake Forest rushing attack, which essentially completely neuters the Demon Deacons on offense.

Now, it won't be easy for the UNC offense, either. This will likely turn into a complete rock fight, in which case I want the points in my pocket.

For what it's worth, I also split this wager with Wake Forest Team Total Under 22.5 points. Without flukes, I don't see the Demon Deacons clearing three touchdowns after scoring a combined 29 offensive points over their past three contests.

Ultimately, this is a good opportunity to sell high on the Demon Deacons after a bit of a lucky result over Virginia, while still investing in a UNC defense that I believe remains undervalued in the market.

Pick: North Carolina +6 or Better · Wake Forest Team Total Under 22.5 (Play to 21.5)

Georgia Southern -2.5 vs. Coastal Carolina

6 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+

Coastal Carolina has had one of the most remarkable in-season turnarounds we have seen in 2025.

Over the first three weeks, the Chants looked completely dysfunctional, but have since won five of six to give themselves a chance in the Sun Belt East, where they sit one game behind James Madison (and host the Dukes in the final week of the regular season).

Samari Collier has helped spark this recent run after taking over under center due to a plethora of injuries at the position. The more mobile Collier actually started the season as the fourth-string signal caller.

With that said, I believe it's time to sell high on Coastal.

First off, let's take a look at its five FBS wins on the season:

• South Alabama (294-420, +3, 1-3)
• UL Monroe (378-315, +1, 1-4)
• App State (410-410, 0, 2-3)
• Marshall (410-432, +3, 1-3)
• Georgia State (444-423, +2, 2-5)

Not exactly a murderer's row with five teams that have a combined 14-31 record (31.1%).

Additionally, Coastal has actually been out-gained in those five contests 2000-1936, but has benefited immensely from turnover luck and fourth-down variance. In those five victories, the Chants had a +9 turnover margin, while their opponents only converted 7-of-18 fourth-down attempts.

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That's simply unsustainable, so don't be surprised if Georgia Southern gets a few bounces.

The Eagles do have a pathetic defense that doesn't do anything well. However, this Coastal offense still can't do much through the air, making this a much easier prep for a putrid run defense.

Coastal will still undoubtedly put some points on the board, but I trust Georgia Southern to match score for score, then some.

The Chants really want to take away explosive plays, but that's not really applicable against the dink-and-dunk Eagles' offensive attack led by quarterback JC French.

The Eagles should also get whatever they want on the ground with OJ Arnold and company behind an offensive line that should control the line of scrimmage from start to finish.

It's also worth noting that Georgia Southern has played the more difficult schedule (with its only home loss coming by three points to first-place Southern Miss) and has two extra days to prepare for this matchup after playing on Thursday night last week.

Additionally, Coastal will be without its starting center and best linebacker.

Ultimately, I believe Coastal's recent run against a bunch of junk (with a lot of help) got this spread under a field goal in a game that I think should be sitting at around -3.5.

I'll take the better team at home laying 2.5.

Pick: Georgia Southern -2.5 (Play to -3)

Washington State -7 vs. Louisiana Tech

10 p.m. ET ⋅ The CW

Louisiana Tech finds itself in one of the worst situations of the entire season.

After a devastating one-point loss at Delaware in which the Hens scored twice in the final 30 seconds after recovering an onside kick, Louisiana Tech now must travel all the way across the country from Newark to Pullman for a non-conference game against a Cougars team coming off of a much-needed bye following four road games (including two out east) between Sept. 27 and Nov. 1.

That extra time off may also allow a few key contributors to return from injury along both the offensive and defensive lines.

That's as vicious as it gets.

I'm not sure how locked in the Bulldogs will be for this matchup in the middle of league play — similar to what we saw from Toledo when it had to fly out west and then take a long bus ride to the Palouse in the middle of MAC play a few weeks ago in a 28-7 loss.

To make matters worse, Louisiana Tech lost starting quarterback Blake Baker to a season-ending ACL injury that he suffered last Saturday against Delaware.

As a result, we will see Evan Bullock and likely more run packages for Trey Kukuk, but Washington State has excelled all season at slowing down mobile quarterbacks.

Meanwhile, Washington State has been a different team since Zevi Eckhaus took over at quarterback.

I'm still not sure what the Cougars were doing under center over the first month of the season. Pass protection remains a glaring issue (115th in Pressure Rate allowed), but Louisiana Tech doesn't generate much pressure (111th).

The Wazzu defense has also continued to improve as the season has progressed, holding its past five opponents to 13.2 points per game. That includes a pair of near upsets on the road against Ole Miss and Virginia — neither of which eclipsed 24 points.

Keep in mind the Cougars have also played a significantly more difficult schedule this season (54th vs. 128th, per Sagarin).

This is one of the toughest trips you will see, with astronomical home-field advantage.

I've had this spot circled since the Summer and am fine with anything at a touchdown or better.

I'd expect a focused effort from the Cougars, who essentially need this game for any shot at getting to a bowl in head coach Jimmy Rogers' first season.

Pick: Washington State -7 or Better

Wyoming +4.5 at Fresno State

10:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network

I've been waiting to fade Fresno State for two weeks following its shocking road upset over Boise State.

However, to me, that had more to do with the Broncos collapsing after they lost starting quarterback Maddux Madsen to an early injury.

Boise also finished with a -3 turnover margin and went just 1-3 on fourth down attempts, which didn't help matters. After all, Fresno only finished with 224 total yards of offense.

Coming out of the bye week three weeks ago, Fresno State made a quarterback change, replacing EJ Warner with Carson Conklin. The results haven't been pretty.

In two starts, Conklin has gone 30-for-63 passing (47.6%) for 217 yards with zero touchdowns and two interceptions (0-4 BTT-TWP ratio). Among all FBS starters, his completion percentage (47.6%) and yards per attempt (3.4) against FBS competition would rank dead last.

Don't expect Fresno to get much of anything through the air against a very stingy Wyoming pass defense.

The Wyoming offense isn't anything to write home about, but there are reasons for optimism. The Cowboys switched play-callers at the end of October, which could lead to some new wrinkles and better looks coming out of the bye.

They also got healthier at tight end (getting Jake Gyllenborg back is important) and made a much-needed change at right tackle that has paid dividends in recent weeks.

In what should be a low-scoring affair, I'll happily take the points with the Pokes and fade the Bulldogs (who have two league wins by less than three points) following their upset win over an injury-ravaged Boise State team.

Ultimately, I don't see much separating these two Mountain West foes.

Pick: Wyoming +4.5 (Play to +3.5)