Wilson: Projecting Week 6 College Football Point Spreads

Sep 30, 2018 8:00 AM EDT
  • Every week, Collin uses his college football power ratings to project point spreads for the following week's games.
  • Use the discrepancies to find betting value when oddsmakers post opening odds on Sunday afternoon.

Welcome to Sunday Morning Coffee. Let this column serve as your first look at the projected point spreads for Week 6’s college football matchups.

When the real lines come out later on Sunday, I’ll compare my power-rated spreads to what oddsmakers posted to find betting value before the odds move.

Be sure to follow me in The Action Network app to get alerts whenever I make a pick off these numbers.


College Football Week 6 Point Spread Projections

Situational Edges I’m Eyeing

  • After a narrow road victory in the marque game of the week, Ohio State returns home to face an Indiana team that played flat in a non-cover against Rutgers.
  • San Jose State comes off a five-overtime loss to host Colorado State, which comes off a bye week.
  • Texas A&M played its “worst football game of the season” against Arkansas despite a victory, according to Jimbo Fisher. The Aggies host a Kentucky team that harassed South Carolina into four turnovers in a 24-10 win.
  • Georgia hosts Vanderbilt in a possible overlook spot to LSU.
  • Wisconsin off a bye week hosts Nebraska, while Michigan hosts Maryland, which is off a bye. The Badgers and Wolverines play in Week 7.
  • Michigan State may overlook hosting Northwestern.  The Spartans travel to Penn State in Week 7.
  • Plenty of teams are on back-to back-travel. The list includes Northern Illinois, Old Dominion, South Alabama, Florida State, Indiana, Iowa State, ULM, Syracuse, Utah and Bowling Green.
  • Plenty of teams come off a bye week. They include Tulsa, Houston, Utah State, Navy, Akron, San Diego State, Maryland, Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois, Missouri, South Florida, UNLV and Wisconsin.
  • ULL is on back to-back travel against Texas State, while the Bobcats are off a bye week. Liberty is also on back-to-back travel against a team off a bye week in New Mexico State.

A Few Other Week 6 Notes

  • Buffalo wide receiver Anthony Johnson was upgraded to probable for the Army game, but only played a handful snaps and did not record a target. The Bulls travel to Central Michigan.
  • Trevor Lawrence is in concussion protocol for Clemson, but did not suffer any head or neck injuries against Syracuse.

  • Texas took a 19-0 lead into halftime in Manhattan and didn’t score a point in the second half. The Longhorns will be more than a touchdown underdog in the Red River Rivalry against Oklahoma. This game is played at a neutral site (Dallas, Cotton Bowl)
Credit:

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Oklahoma Sooners

Follow Collin Wilson on Twitter
@_Collin1

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
PSU
RUTG
48.5
+26
50.5
+28
ARK
MSST
45.5
-18.5
47
-21.5
CIT
BAMA
60.5
-51
62.5
-52
OSU
MD
58
+17.5
58.5
+14
NW
MINN
51
+3.5
47.5
-2.5
IDHO
FLA
59
-39.5
59
-40
MTSU
UK
45
-13
46.5
-16.5
UTAH
COLO
48.5
+7
47
+7.5
USU
CSU
68
+26
66.5
+28.5
SYR
ND
62.5
-10
64.5
-10.5
BC
FSU
49.5
+1
48.5
PK
WVU
OKST
69.5
+5
74
+6.5
MASS
UGA
62
-44
66.5
-41
IND
MICH
53
-27.5
55
-28.5
ORST
WASH
57.5
-31
58
-33.5
DUKE
CLEM
58
-27
58.5
-28.5
RICE
LSU
51
-44
52
-42.5
KU
OKLA
68
-34.5
70.5
-34.5
CIN
UCF
59.5
-8
61
-7
ISU
TEX
51
-3
48
-2.5
ARIZ
WSU
60.5
-10
62
-10.5