Colorado vs. USC Odds & Prediction: How We’re Betting Saturday’s Pac-12 Showdown
Getty Images. Design by Matt Roembke/Action Network. Pictured (left to right): USC’s Caleb Williams and Lincoln Riley. Colorado’s Deion Sanders and Shedeur Sanders.
Colorado vs. USC Odds
| Colorado Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+22 -110 | 73 -110o / -110u | +850 |
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-22 -110 | 73 -110o / -110u | -1675 |
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By Dan Keegan
Deion Sanders’ Buffaloes roam back to Boulder following a hurting at the hands of the Oregon Ducks, and they'll take on a USC team that has stormed through the early-season schedule — on offense at least.
Colorado has played almost every kind of game so far, and it’s not even October. It scored an upset in a high-scoring showdown, blew out a team as small favorites, had to narrowly dodge an upset bid and got destroyed itself.
It’s a different recipe every week.
But Saturday's spread implies a repeat of last week’s shellacking is in store at the hands of Caleb Williams, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, and his stable of talented receivers.
Lincoln Riley’s outfit opened as a 27-point favorite, and it now sits around 21 — a similar number to the spread last week in Eugene.
There are reasons to believe USC can repeat Oregon’s performance: it has the ability to score at will on offense, and every week the book on Colorado adds more and more chapters.
But the case for Colorado is compelling too: USC’s defense is far more forgiving than Oregon’s, and now the Buffs will be back on their home pasture.
Last week, it seemed all the meta-conversation around Colorado overtook the actual football. There was a lot of hollering about playing for clicks, TV ratings, trash talking, etc — all the football-adjacent stuff, and not as much football.
It’s easy to forget in all the noise that Colorado has played some incredibly compelling ballgames this year.
Hopefully, we get another instant classic from Folsom Field this week.
In preparation for this massive Big Noon showdown, we polled of our 15 college football experts to try to find some consensus in this matchup. We also have a prop as another way to play this game that we’ll all be watching.
Let’s take a look at our staff’s picks.
Colorado vs. USC Spread
Colorado +21.5
After getting trounced last weekend, our staff likes Colorado to rebound against USC as a 20-plus-point dog for the third time in five games this season.
After a wake-up call against Oregon for the Buffaloes and the general public, this is a good spot to back Colorado as it regroups following one of the most prolific starts in college football.
Once considered infallible, there are a handful of reasons to back Colorado here.
For starters, Colorado will host USC in Boulder. It goes without saying, but there's an inherent advantage to playing at home, especially in the Pac-12 where home-field advantage may loom the largest of all Power 5 conferences.
A derivative of the home-field advantage for Colorado is the altitude of Folsom Field, which stands 5,334 feet above sea level — the third-highest in FBS. This represents a drastic change for the sea level-based Trojans for the early kick.
Colorado is down a couple of contributors due to injury but should still have the talent and motivation to put up points.
Quarterback Shedeur Sanders had a tough outing against Oregon last week, but there were still some bright spots. Despite being sacked seven times and facing constant pressure, Sanders completed 22-of-33 (66.7%) passes and didn’t throw an interception.
Lastly, the USC defense is not Oregon. The Trojans have a tendency to allow big plays and enter this game with the 72nd-ranked defense in the nation, allowing 364.5 yards per game.
Colorado will look to air it out against a USC secondary that has given up 228.0 passing yards per game. It helps that the Buff also rank 37th nationally in Offensive Passing Success Rate.
Action Network's PRO Projections put this game at 18.8 points.
Look for Colorado to regroup after last week’s drubbing and for the Sanders-led offense to put enough points on the board to cover in Boulder.
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Colorado vs. USC Over/Under
Over 73 | 10 Picks |
Pass | 0 Picks |
Under 73 | 5 Picks |
Over 73
Grab a pumpkin spice latte, and buckle up for this offensive spectacle that our staff has high conviction in.
While offense will be the headline-generator in this game, the lack of defense paves the way for this over to cash.
Both teams enter the game with potent offenses led by two of the best quarterbacks in the nation. Colorado has grabbed a lot of the early national attention, led by the Sanders contingent, but USC quarterback and Heisman frontrunner Caleb Williams is on a level of his own.
In four games this season, Williams has led USC to a perfect record and thrown for 1,200 yards, 15 touchdowns and zero interceptions. Averaging 300.0 yards through the air per game, Williams and the Trojans have the top-ranked scoring offense in the nation, averaging 55.0 points per game.
The incendiary Trojan offense will face a Colorado defense that's undoubtedly the weak link of the team. The Buffaloes rank 112th in the nation in pass defense while sitting outside the top 100 in both Rushing Success Rate and Passing Success Rate.
Where Colorado has really struggled is plays across the middle of the field. The Buffs have given up 44 plays of 10-19 yards, putting them 119th in the metric.
While the Trojans have had tremendous success on offense, its defense has been liable to big plays as well. This should bode well for Sanders and the Colorado offense as they look to attack a Trojans defense that has given up 14 plays of at least 20 yards this season — 80th in the country.
Look for both teams to put up big offensive performances in this game.
Williams shouldn't have problems dissecting the Colorado defense across the middle, similar to how Oregon did last weekend. Meanwhile, Sanders will look to retaliate with deep shots down the sidelines.
It’s unlikely that either team will pull a stalwart defensive performance out of their hats at this point in the season. It’s going to be all gas to get the win and move on. Back the over in Boulder at 75 or better.
More Ways to Bet Colorado vs. USC
By Alex Hinton
Last week, Oregon running back Bucky Irving ran wild on Colorado, as expected. The blowout prevented him from reaching his alternate lines, but he posted 89 yards on 10 carries and cashed his over in the third quarter.
This week, I'm going back to that same well.
Like Oregon, USC uses multiple backs in its rotation. However, South Carolina transfer MarShawn Lloyd has emerged as the lead back.
The junior has rushed for at least 75 yards in each of his past three games, including a season-high 154 yards on just 14 carries last week at Arizona State.
Removing five Caleb Williams’ sacks, USC is averaging 7.6 yards per carry. Lloyd is putting up 8.9 yards per rush this season, so he should find plenty of running room against this leaky Colorado defense.
The Buffaloes rank 105th or worse in Rushing PPA, Rushing Success Rate and rushing explosiveness allowed. They also sit 97th in Havoc. Meanwhile, USC’s offense comes in at second in Rushing PPA, fourth in Rushing Success Rate and ninth in Havoc Allowed.
It's also 22nd in rushing explosiveness, and Lloyd is a big reason why. He has at least one 25-yard run in each of the last three games, and I expect him to add at least one more against the Buffaloes.
If Lloyd pops at least one long run, he'll be well on his way to another 100-yard game. This line moved up to 93.5 at DraftKings, so we're getting value at FanDuel here.
However, you can also take Lloyd to run for 100 yards at +154 or 125 yards at +360 at DraftKings.
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