LSU vs Georgia State Prediction, Odds, Pick | College Football Betting Preview (Saturday, Nov. 18)
Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images. Pictured: LSU’s Jayden Daniels.
Georgia State vs LSU Prediction, Odds, Pick
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-32.5 -110 | 73.5 -115o / -105u | +1800 |
| Georgia State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+32.5 -110 | 73.5 -115o / -105u | -10000 |
Last week, LSU responded to its loss to archrival Alabama with another offensive explosion.
It scored the final 14 points of the game to pull away for a 52-35 victory over Florida. It was the seventh time this season that LSU has scored at least 40 points. In the process, the Tigers improved to 7-3 and shot up to No. 15 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings.
This week, LSU will welcome Georgia State to Baton Rouge. Georgia State has enjoyed a solid season and comes in at 6-4 overall. However, it has lost its last three games to Georgia Southern, James Madison and Appalachian State.
There's no shame in losing any of those teams, as they are three of the best in the Sun Belt. However, Georgia State allowed 42.7 points per game in that span.
Now, it will have to level up in competition. Will the Tigers score 50 points once again? Let's break it down.
Read on for our Georgia State vs LSU Prediction, Odds, Pick.
Georgia State's defense is led by linebacker Jontrey Hunter, who leads the team with 79 tackles, including 5.5 tackles for loss. The Panthers are allowing 146.4 rushing yards per game and rank 51st in Rushing Success Rate.
While they're passable in that area, defending the pass is an issue.
The Panthers allow 282.4 passing yards per game, which ranks 128th nationally. They've allowed 298.7 yards per game over their last three games, all losses in which they allowed over 40 points in each game.
The Panthers are also 122nd in Passing Success Rate and 93rd in Havoc. They'll have their hands full in Death Valley on Saturday.
In a Week 6 staff best bets piece, I backed the over when LSU played Missouri, and it cleared by over 20 points. I liked the over because of the level that Jayden Daniels was playing at then (and now), but I stated that he would not win the Heisman because LSU already had two losses.
LSU has lost again since, but it still may be time to retract that statement.
Daniels is currently tied for second in Heisman odds at +370 at FanDuel, and it's not hard to see why. Daniels is top-10 in the FBS in completion percentage, passing yards and yards per attempt. He leads the FBS in touchdown passes (30), QBR and passer rating. That's just what he's done as a passer.
Daniels also has 918 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns on 8.1 yards per carry. He ranks in the top 50 among FBS ball-carriers in rushing yards and touchdowns despite losing 88 yards on 20 sacks.
LSU sits first in Rushing Success Rate, seventh nationally in Passing Success Rate and ninth in Finishing Drives.
He has elite weapons at his disposal too.
Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. will both hear their names called in next year's NFL Draft. Nabers leads the FBS with 1,284 receiving yards and sits seventh in both receptions (72) and touchdown receptions (10). Thomas paces the FBS with 13 touchdown receptions and ranks 12th with 918 receiving yards on 51 receptions.
Running backs Logan Diggs, Josh Williams and Kaleb Jackson are all averaging over five yards per carry. Diggs leads the trio with 635 rushing yards and six touchdowns. This balanced attack will be a handful for Georgia State this week.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Georgia State and LSU match up statistically:
Georgia State Offense vs. LSU Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 104 | 115 | |
| Line Yards | 111 | 111 | |
| Pass Success | 53 | 111 | |
| Havoc | 60 | 70 | |
| Finishing Drives | 60 | 130 | |
| Quality Drives | 99 | 100 |
LSU Offense vs. Georgia State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 1 | 51 | |
| Line Yards | 1 | 49 | |
| Pass Success | 7 | 122 | |
| Havoc | 4 | 93 | |
| Finishing Drives | 9 | 79 | |
| Quality Drives | 2 | 83 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 115 | 44 |
| PFF Coverage | 126 | 104 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 91 | 82 |
| Middle 8 | 132 | 1 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.7 (25) | 26.9 (64) |
| Rush Rate | 58.7% (24) | 53.2% (67) |
Georgia State vs LSU
Betting Pick & Prediction
LSU is going to win this game handily, but I can't back a defense that's 130th in Finishing Drives to win by over 30 points.
Instead, I'm pivoting to the Tigers' team total.
Although it's high, LSU has played two games against non-Power 5 opponents this season. It scored 72 points against Grambling and 62 points against Army. By the way, it had the ball for only 28 minutes against Army.
LSU will be able to run the ball with success this week. However, its passing game has a decided advantage against a Georgia State pass defense that ranks 122nd or worse in passing yards allowed per game, Passing Success Rate and coverage grade.
Daniels might not have to play the fourth quarter if the expected blowout comes to fruition. However, it would not be a surprise if he throws for 400 yards with 250 of them going to Nabers and Thomas.
Expect LSU's passing game to lead the way en route to its fourth 50-point performance this season.
Pick: LSU Team Total Over 51.5 (-125)
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