Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee Odds, Prediction & Picks | Wednesday NCAAF Betting Guide
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Middle Tennessee quarterback Nicholas Vattiato.
Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee Odds
| Jacksonville State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | ML |
+3 -110 | 52 -110o / -110u | +130 |
| Middle Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | ML |
-3 -110 | 52 -110o / -110u | -155 |
Jacksonville State heads on the road for the second straight week to battle Middle Tennessee in Wednesday night college football action.
The Gamecocks had a miracle win and cover last Thursday night, coming back from a 14-point halftime deficit to win beat Sam Houston by seven in overtime.
Even though it's sitting at 4-1, Jacksonville State has played one of the easiest schedules in the country. This game marks its second-ever Conference USA contest and first back-to-back road trip of the season, so we'll see how the Gamecocks handle it.
The Blue Raiders fell to 1-4 after their 31-10 loss to Western Kentucky this past weekend. Middle Tennessee has not beaten an FBS team yet, with its only win coming over Murray State — but it did open the season at Alabama and Missouri in back-to-back weeks.
Turnovers have been the story of the Blue Raiders' season, so if they can get that cleaned up, they may be able to pull out a conference victory.
Jacksonville State boasts one of the heaviest rush offenses that doesn't run the triple option. The Gamecocks run the ball on 66.2% of their offensive plays, but given the schedule they've faced, their rushing numbers should be better.
They're averaging five yards per carry and rank 48th in Rushing Success Rate, but they sit outside the top 90 in rushing explosiveness and 82nd in EPA/Rush. Plus, one of their top running backs, Ron Wiggins, is out until mid-November with a chest injury.
Quarterback Logan Smothers hasn't been asked to throw very much, but he's struggled a bit when he has.
Smothers owns a PFF passing grade of just 70.3 with four turnover-worthy plays and zero big-time throws. If you remove his game against FCS East Tennessee State, he's completed only 55.2% of his passes for 347 yards — good for six yards per attempt.
He has carried the ball a lot as a runner but really isn't that elusive or physical. He's forced only two missed tackles while averaging 2.1 yards per carry after contact.
The real reason Jacksonville State is undefeated is because of its defense. The Gamecocks are allowing only 4.3 yards per play and rank eighth in Success Rate Allowed.
They've been incredibly stout against the run, but that won't matter as much in this game against Middle Tennessee's pass-happy attack.
Jacksonville State did allow Sam Houston to throw for 299 yards and 7.7 yards per attempt, but overall, it's allowing only 6.9 yards per attempt and owns the 26th-best PFF coverage grade in the country.
This Middle Tennessee team is bad — there's really no other word to describe it.
Head coach Rick Stockstill has been at the helm since 2006, and this season, it's pretty clear that Middle Tennessee is going to throw the ball a lot on offense.
The Blue Raiders throw it on almost 55% of their offensive snaps, but the problem is they don't have a very efficient passing offense. Nicholas Vattiato holds a PFF passing grade of just 71.1 with 70% of his pass attempts coming within 10 yards.
When an offense throws that many short passes, it would typically have a high ranking in Passing Success Rate. That's not the case for Middle Tennessee, which ranks 91st in that area.
They also struggle to put together solid drives and finish them, ranking outside the top 100 in both Quality Drives and Finishing Drives.
The Blue Raiders' defensive metrics have been a bit inflated because of the blowout loss to Alabama. However, they held Missouri, Colorado State and Western Kentucky to a combined 3.1 yards per carry.
They also rank top-25 nationally in explosive rushing allowed, so Jacksonville State won't run the ball with ease on Wednesday.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Jacksonville State and Middle Tennessee match up statistically:
Jacksonville State Offense vs. Middle Tennessee Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 48 | 111 | |
| Line Yards | 81 | 98 | |
| Pass Success | 126 | 104 | |
| Havoc | 31 | 106 | |
| Finishing Drives | 78 | 133 | |
| Quality Drives | 111 | 90 |
Middle Tennessee Offense vs. Jacksonville State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 102 | 6 | |
| Line Yards | 95 | 8 | |
| Pass Success | 91 | 63 | |
| Havoc | 88 | 44 | |
| Finishing Drives | 114 | 24 | |
| Quality Drives | 109 | 14 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 22 | 75 |
| PFF Coverage | 26 | 126 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 82 | 119 |
| Middle 8 | 62 | 130 |
| Seconds per Play | 21.6 (3) | 25.4 (39) |
| Rush Rate | 66.2% (6) | 44.3% (115) |
Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee
Betting Pick & Prediction
Even though both of these offenses run pretty fast, I think the total is too high.
With the Gamecocks utilizing the ground game on two-thirds of their offensive plays, they keep the clock rolling as opposed to stopping it with every incompletion. Plus, they really haven't been that effective on the ground, ranking outside the top 80 in EPA/Rush.
Middle Tennessee has improved against the run since its game against Alabama, so I don't think the Gamecocks are going to run wild.
The Blue Raiders' pass-happy offense, which is built on a lot of short passes, just hasn't been that effective and in all likelihood won't move the ball much against a top-30 secondary.
I only have 43.2 points projected for this game, so I like the value on the under at 52.
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