The Kansas State Wildcats take on the Baylor Bears in Waco, Texas. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Baylor is favored by -6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -250. The total is set at 61.5 points.
Here’s my Kansas State vs. Baylor prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 4, 2025.
Kansas State vs Baylor Prediction
- Kansas State vs. Baylor Pick: Over 61.5 (Play to 62)
My Baylor vs. Kansas State best bet is on the over. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Kansas State vs Baylor Odds
| Kansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 61.5 -110o / -110u | +205 |
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 61.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
- Kansas State vs Baylor point spread: Baylor -6.5
- Kansas State vs Baylor over/under: 61.5 points
- Kansas State vs Baylor moneyline: Kansas State +205, Baylor -250
Kansas State vs Baylor Preview
Kansas State Wildcats Betting Preview: Disappointing Wildcats Aiming at Recovery With Brown & Bailey
The Wildcats' offense has been disappointing thus far and hasn't reached early-season expectations. They've been an average group most weeks — EPA/pass 0.06 (75th), EPA/rush -0.02 (85th) — and they've faced longer third downs than Baylor (6.90 yards, 66th).
The path of least resistance is on the ground against Baylor's 97th EPA/rush allowed, using early-down efficiency (0.06, 60th) to stay ahead of schedule and avoid the Bears' strong third-down defense (21st).
If Kansas State wideout room is healthier, which it should be, that unlocks play-action explosives and keeps Baylor's safeties honest.
It would be massive if quarterback Avery Johnson could get two key wide receiver weapons to suit up, as Jayce Brown and Jerand Bradley are expected to play after suffering injuries last week.
The defensive unit is sturdy on early downs (-0.07, 46th) and above average versus the pass (EPA/pass allowed -0.02, 66th), but it's leaky against the run (EPA/rush allowed 0.03, 95th) and concedes decent field position (defense starts at own 29, 111th).
Against a Baylor attack, one of the better early-down offenses on your board and top-50 passing in EPA, Kansas State likely needs red zone stands to hold Baylor to 3s, not 7s.
I expect a lot of aggressiveness from the Cats' offense in the matchup, especially given that the Baylor offense will be scoring touchdowns instead of field goals.
Baylor Bears Betting Preview: Injuries a Concern for Bears Defense
Baylor is the more efficient offense in this matchup, which shows up early in drives.
The Bears sit 37th in Early-Downs EPA/play (0.10) and create available yards on 57.4% of possessions (31st) — both meaningful edges over a Kansas State defense that's merely 46th on early downs (-0.07) and allows 43.8% available yards (72nd).
Baylor's EPA/pass 0.17 (49th) pairs through the air with a manageable average third-down distance of 6.52 (39th).
Quarterback Sawyer Robertson has been tremendous, tossing 15 touchdowns and five interceptions, along with 1500+ passing yards thus far. Head coach Dave Aranda has also been aggressive on offense, going for many fourth downs early in the season.
The Wildcats' pass defense is respectable (EPA/pass allowed: -0.02, 66th), but their soft spot is the run, where Kansas State ranks 95th in EPA/rush allowed (0.03).
That combination gives Baylor flexibility to stay on schedule, keep third downs short and stack scoring chances from advantageous field position.
Defensively, there are concerns, but they're built to cap explosive passes (EPA/pass allowed: -0.15, 30th) and excel on money downs (third/fourth-down success allowed: 35.1%, 21st). The trade-off: opponents have found more daylight on the ground (EPA/rush allowed 0.05, 97th).
Kansas State's offense is middling overall (EPA/pass 0.06, #75; EPA/rush -0.02, 85th) but decent on early downs (0.06, 60th), so the Bears' ability to win third downs and force field goals instead of touchdowns is pivotal.
Baylor has also been decimated by injuries, especially on defense. The Bears are becoming extremely thin in the secondary, and a few injuries are worth monitoring in that position group.
Kansas State vs Baylor Pick, Betting Analysis
I expect a high-scoring contest in Waco on Saturday, as many edges should correlate to a lot of points being scored.
Baylor's injuries in the secondary are nothing to sniff at, and I also see a lot of sharp money coming in on the over as of Thursday afternoon.
Baylor’s offense vs. Kansas State’s run defense is the key handicap. The Bears are top-40 on early downs and 49th in EPA/pass, while Kansas State sits 95th vs. the run and only average vs. the pass.
That combo sustains drives and sets up explosives, giving the Cats a path to scoring. Baylor’s defense is strong against the pass, but the Bears are 97th vs. the run, and Kansas State’s early-downs efficiency keeps the chains moving.
If Brown and Bradley return (as expected), that will add balance and improve red zone finishing. Drive quality and field position edges correlate to a higher-scoring offense, as Baylor produces 57.4% available yards (31st) and typically keeps third downs short.
Kansas State’s defense yields own-29 starts (111th), which boosts Baylor's scoring expectation.
Pick: Over 61.5 (Play to 62)
