The Kansas State Wildcats and Iowa State Cyclones open the 2025 college football season in Dublin, Ireland, on Saturday, Aug. 23 at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN.
The Wildcats come into Week 0 as -3 favorites on the spread (-160 on the moneyline) with the Cyclones sitting at +3 (+135 on the moneyline). The over/under, meanwhile, sits at 50.5, up from the previous market number of 49.5.
Our staff broke down how they're playing this game, so let's dive into the Kansas State vs. Iowa State odds and our college football picks for Saturday, Aug. 23.
Kansas State vs Iowa State Picks, Predictions
By Pete Ruden
It's time. We've waited seven months for college football to be back in our lives, and we're finally here.
Aviva Stadium will be the site for this Big 12 clash that could have significant implications on the conference race later in the season.
Iowa State has covered five straight against Kansas State, but Cyclones quarterback Rocco Becht has also struggled to get going against the Wildcats at times. Last season, he went 13-for-35 for 137 yards through the air with more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws.
Now, he's without his top two wide receivers, who both posted the only 1,000-yard seasons for the same team outside of Ohio State.
On the other side, Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson has also struggled a bit against Jon Heacock's defense. The dual-threat signal caller went 12-of-28 for 220 yards in last year's clash.
However, Johnson is at his best when he's healthy and can use his legs, so the Wildcats can't be afraid to unleash him in one of the biggest games of the season.
With the spread at a field goal, this game has all the makings of an instant classic.
Our college football writers are betting the spread and total in Kansas State vs. Iowa State, so let's grab a Guinness (or your beverage of choice) and see which way they're leaning.
Kansas State vs Iowa State Spread Pick
Our Spread Pick: Kansas State -3
The Week 0 matchup between Kansas State and Iowa State features Kansas State favored by 3 points. The opening line was Kansas State -3.5. Most sportsbooks are offering -3 ahead of kickoff, though some have pushed up to -3.5.
The game played in Dublin, Ireland, offers a unique neutral-site setting for the Big 12 showdown. In fact, it’s the shortest betting spread in the Aer Lingus Classic since Boston College vs. Georgia Tech in 2016 (-3/-3.5).
Last season, the Cyclones and Wildcats took two contrasting paths against the spread. Iowa State finished with an 8-6 ATS record (57.1%) en route to the conference title game, while Kansas State struggled, going just 4-9 ATS (30.8%).
Historically, Iowa State has dominated the head-to-head series in recent years, especially under head coach Matt Campbell. The Cyclones are 5-0 ATS against Kansas State over the last five meetings and have a 4-1 record straight up.
Their only loss in that span was still a cover as the underdog. Also, Iowa State has two upset wins across that span.
Despite Iowa State’s recent ATS surge in the head-to-head, the Action team is leaning toward Kansas State covering the spread.
The Cyclones are bound to take a step back in 2025 after losing their two best offensive linemen and top two wide receivers from a season ago.
Meanwhile, Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson is as healthy as he'll be this season and can utilize his legs to put the Wildcats in solid positions all game. Not to mention, they're also experienced on the offensive line with four seniors and one junior.
The Kansas State front seven should also prove to be stout against a rebuilding Iowa State offensive line.
Notably, the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast locked in head coach Chris Klieman and Kansas State to not only start the year with a win but also exceed market expectations against the spread of -3.
Kansas State vs Iowa State Over/Under Pick
Over 50.5 | 7 Picks |
Pass | 2 Picks |
Under 50.5 | 1 Pick |
Our Over/Under Pick: Over 50.5
By Joshua Nunn
Our staff feels overwhelmingly that this game will be higher scoring and go over the posted total. I can see a path to both teams having success offensively and putting points on the scoreboard.
Iowa State desires to get back to Matt Campbell football and use more 12 personnel this year, with big bodies at tight end helping out in the run game and creating mismatches as pass-catchers.
Kansas State allowed just 3.6 yards per carry last season, and its returning front seven defensively is loaded with talent.
I can see Iowa State abandoning the run game a bit here and requiring Rocco Becht to create plays through the air. The K-State secondary is breaking in two new cornerbacks and a new safety, and it can be beaten through the air.
Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson should see a statistical boost with Matt Wells taking over as offensive coordinator, and we should see some more dynamic looks with the offensive system.
With that said, Kansas State wants to line up and run the football, which they did effectively last season, averaging 215 yards per game and 6.1 yards per carry.
Iowa State has lost three starters from a 2024 defensive line that struggled to contain the opposition on the ground week in and week out. In fact, the Cyclones surrendered 5.6 yards per carry in conference play.
Luckily for them, they do welcome back Will McLaughlin and Caleb Bacon at linebacker after both missed significant time last year due to injury.
These linebackers are going to be stressed when providing run support to aid inexperienced personnel transferring in from FCS along the defensive line.
In its four losses last season, Kansas State had 13 red-zone opportunities but came away with only five touchdowns. This team lost games last year due to inefficiency in the red zone, and I have to assume this was a focus for the group in spring ball and fall camp.
Watch for KSU to punch it in for six when it gets down close instead of settling for field goals.
Kansas State vs Iowa State First Quarter Pick
This play is predicated on the familiarity between these two teams and a historical trend.
Joe Klanderman and Jon Heacock return as defensive coordinators for Kansas State and Iowa State, respectively. They have stood their posts in Ames and Manhattan for 14 years collectively.
With the benefit of an offseason and fall camp, the pairing has excelled in calling plays in season openers.
Heacock’s defenses have allowed just 1.5 points in the first quarter of their openers, albeit against light competition. Klanderman has been equally unflappable, allowing just seven points across the five first quarters he’s called since being promoted to DC in 2020 (1.4 points per 1Q).
Both offenses will be breaking in almost entirely new receiving corps, with KSU bringing back the only starter between the two schools in Jayce Brown. This should limit the kind of aerial explosives that plagued both defenses last season.
And now for the final element, Ireland itself. Whether it’s the travel, the time zone differential or the predictably soggy weather, no one fires out of the starting blocks across the Atlantic.
Dating back to the first Emerald Isle Classic in 1988, the first quarter scoring comes in at a tepid 12 points per game. Six times in the last eight games on the Emerald Isle, one of the two teams has failed to score in the opening 15 minutes.
With a heatwave gripping the Midwest, there’s a chance it could be 40 degrees colder at kickoff in Dublin than what these two teams are practicing in this week. I think that only adds to the likelihood of a cold start for both offenses.
Kansas State vs Iowa State Odds
Kansas State Odds | ||
---|---|---|
Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | -160 |
Iowa State Odds | ||
---|---|---|
Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | +135 |