The Liberty Flames take on the Jacksonville State Gamecocks in Jacksonville, Alabama. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Liberty is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -245. Jacksonville State, meanwhile, enters at +200 to pull off the upset. The total is set at 49.5 points.
Here’s my Liberty vs. Jacksonville State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 6.
Liberty vs Jacksonville State Prediction
- Liberty vs. Jacksonville State Pick: Under 49.5
My Jacksonville State vs. Liberty best bet is on both teams to go under the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Liberty vs Jacksonville State Odds
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -112 | 49.5 -108o / -112u | -245 |
| Jacksonville State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -108 | 49.5 -108o / -112u | +200 |
- Liberty vs Jacksonville State Spread: Liberty -6 (-110), Jacksonville State +6 (-110)
- Liberty vs Jacksonville State Over/Under: 49.5
- Liberty vs Jacksonville State Moneyline: Liberty -245, Jacksonville State +200
Liberty vs Jacksonville State College Football Betting Preview
Liberty Flames Betting Preview: Needing a Boost
Liberty didn't jump out to the offensive start it wanted in Week 1.
The Flames took forever to get going — although they did get there, eventually, scoring on their final three drives — and it wasn't until the fourth quarter that they could shake a 7-7 tie with FCS Maine.
Quarterback Ethan Vasko accounted for all four Liberty touchdowns (three passing) despite completing just 19-of-33 passes for 197 yards.
Did those final three drives really sort things out for Liberty's offense? Perhaps, but all came off turnovers, and three of the four scoring drives began in plus territory. On drives beginning inside Liberty's own 30, the Flames went 0-for with zero points to show.
The defense held up well enough against an FCS offense with real concerns. Maine threw for only 110 yards and, aside from a 77-yard touchdown scamper, the run defense was solid. But then again, it should be solid against this overmatched opponent.
Offensively, the last season-plus under Jamey Chadwell has been spotty. In four losses last year, Liberty was held to 24, 21, 18 and seven points, and this year started off rocky.
The issue stems when the Flames don't have a dominant back to rely on.
Julian Gray played 42 snaps but carried the ball just six times. Vaughn Blue left with an injury after just six snaps. The two RB leaders in carries — Evan Dickens and Caden Williams — combined for 4.5 yards per carry.
This offense has genuine questions moving forward and should not be given the benefit of the doubt until we see proof of concept.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks Betting Preview: Nothing New
Speaking of underwhelming offenses… yikes.
We all knew change was coming with the departure of Rich Rodriguez, and I even called the change back to a more spread offense a mistake this summer. At this level, you have to do something unique, excellent or both, and Jacksonville State did none of those things in Week 1.
Just one of Gavin Wimsatt's 29 passing attempts was deemed explosive, and 16-of-36 rushes went for two or fewer yards (44%).
Outside a good 11-play, 84-yard touchdown drive and a six-play, 50-yard field goal drive, Jacksonville State's most successful drive went 11 plays, 37 yards and ended in a punt. Not good.
The unit lacks identity and doesn't have any individual player talented enough to make up for those deficiencies.
Perhaps most concerning of all, Jacksonville State went +2 in the turnover department and had 20 fewer penalty yards but lost, 17-10.
Though its opponent came from the Big 12, UCF didn't look very good at all. Red flags should be going up in Jacksonville, Ala.
Liberty vs Jacksonville State Pick, Betting Analysis
My strategy for Week 2 is twofold:
- Find teams that showed they could be disastrous this year, and bet against them.
- Locate teams that had no offensive rhythm and bet under the next point total.
This matchup happens to feature two of those teams with legitimate offensive concerns.
There's a fine line between overreacting to Week 1 results and sitting on your hands when teams are telling you what they're going to be (see: 2024 Florida State). Don't sit on your hands for these two teams.
Liberty's offensive concerns extend well beyond last week. Chadwell's offense hasn't clicked since late 2023.
Now, both QB Kaidon Salter and RB Quinton Cooley are gone.
Vasko is a fine enough QB recruited to play in this system by Chadwell himself at Coastal Carolina. But don't underestimate the impact of losing two creators in the backfield; I believe these offensive woes are here to stay.
Despite starting a handful of drives in plus territory, Liberty picked up just 60% of available yards — a real testament to just how bad it was on long drives.
On the other side, Jacksonville State went from running one of the country's most unique and effective offensive systems to running what 40% of the country runs. That downgrade also should not be underestimated.
Whether the offense shapes up or not down the line is inconsequential — it's an opportunity for Week 2.
And on the other side, both teams' defenses appear up to the task of slowing the other down. As bad as UCF's offense played, Jacksonville State's defense forced a pair of turnovers and generated seven tackles for a loss. Two run-centric offenses play into what appear to be two capable run defenses.
I'm fading two offenses I have little faith in here in Week 2.
Pick: Under 49.5 (-110)
