Updating Miami vs. Florida Odds Until Kickoff

Aug 24, 2019 05:30 PM EDT
Credit:

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Florida quarterback Feleipe Franks

  • The Florida Gators and Miami Hurricanes meet in college football's opening game on Saturday night, August 24.
  • The Gators are a 7-point betting favorite in the latest odds, with the total plummeting to 46 over the last few weeks.

We’ve made it. College football, and the wagering that surely comes with it, are back.

This year we get a real treat in Week 0 when Miami takes on in-state rival and No. 8 Florida. The Canes are breaking in a new quarterback, playcaller and offensive line.

We’ve been covering this game top to bottom all week. Find some of the excerpts below. We’ll also be tracking the odds for this game right up until kickoff.

Updating Miami vs. Florida Betting Odds

  • Spread: Florida -7
  • Over/Under: 46
  • Time: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN

6 p.m. ET: We’re still at 46, and the point spread is holding steady at a touchdown.

4 p.m. ET update: The total has ticked back up to 46 across the market. It doesn’t seem like it will hit 45 at any point.

2:30 p.m. ET update: Little has changed this afternoon, with Miami going back to -110 at +7, but not much else. The total has held steady at 45.5 for the last few hours.

10:30 p.m. ET update: The total has dipped to 45.5 for the first time in several hours. Miami has also moved back to -105 at +7.

9 a.m. ET update: This line has held steady all morning, but the juice has shifted five cents toward Miami — they went from -105 at +7 to -110.

The total has seen some resistance at 46.5, continually getting back down to 46. We’ll see if there’s too much under action at some point to get it below 46.

All odds via Westgate as of 10 a.m. ET on Saturday.

Florida vs. Miami Betting Guide

Get the full betting guide here. Two excerpts are below.

Florida coach Dan Mullen’s scheme is predicated on the offensive line preventing pressure, so it has time to identify and exploit the mismatches. Last year, the offensive line was excellent, led by two stud offensive tackles Martez Ivey and Jawaan Taylor. Well, both are now on NFL rosters and Florida will have to replace four OL starters in total.

That doesn’t bode well against an excellent Miami defensive front seven, which includes one of the best linebacker groups in the nation. No team was better at getting in the backfield last year than Miami, which led the country with 10.5 tackles for loss per game. — Stuckey

Both offenses should start slow because of offensive line play. Jarren Williams will get his first action in a college game behind a line that loses 88 career starts. That is not a good formula against a Florida defensive line that has started a combined 122 games and was 14th in defensive line havoc in 2018.

Florida is in a similar position, losing 152 career starts on the offensive line. Center Nick Buchanan returns for Feleipe Franks, but the remaining positions have little experience. The projected tackles for the Gators offensive line have a combined 154 snaps from 2018. — Collin Wilson

Betting Trends

— Since 2005, the SEC is 52-45-1 (54%) ATS vs. the ACC in regular season games, including 10-5 ATS on a neutral field and 32-21-1 ATS as a favorite. — John Ewing

— In Mullen’s career as a head coach at Florida and Mississippi State, his teams have excelled early in the year against the spread, but tend to fade away later in the year. — Evan Abrams

Sharp Action Hits Miami vs. Florida

Get the full sharp report for this game here. Find an excerpt below.

All of this is to say that sharps are taking the number into account when playing this (and every) game. They don’t bet Florida because they “like Florida,” they bet Florida -6.5 because their power ratings say the Gators should win by at least a touchdown. For all we know, the same wiseguy may be on both Florida -6.5 and Miami +7.5.

This even, two-way sharp action is not always the case, and it certainly doesn’t help that this line is centered around the key number of 7. There’s a good chance that sharps who like a team at +16.5, for example, are probably still going to like it at +16. — Danny Donahue

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