Michigan vs Michigan State Odds | Betting Guide & Pick
Photo by Adam Ruff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Katin Houser (Michigan State)
- Michigan takes on Michigan State in a Big Ten rivalry affair.
- Can the Spartans break out of their funk that included a 24-6 blown lead last week vs. Rutgers?
- Brad Cunningham breaks down the matchup and offers up his pick and prediction.
Michigan vs Michigan State Odds
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-25.5 -105 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -3000 |
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+25.5 -115 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +1200 |
Michigan looks to stay undefeated when it makes the short trip to take on its in-state rival Michigan State.
Michigan is on cruise control right now. It's sitting at 7-0, is ranked No. 2 in the country and hasn't allowed a single opponent to score more than 10 points.
The Wolverines have played one of the easiest schedules in the nation, and it's going to be a very difficult finish with Penn State and Ohio State being two of their final three games.
Meanwhile, it's a mess in East Lansing right now. The Spartans have fired Mel Tucker, they're sitting at 2-4 and to make matters worse, they just blew a 24-6 fourth quarter lead at Rutgers last week.
While things are going about as bad as they can go for the Spartans, this is a rivalry game, and historically, it's been close, which has led to moments like this.
October 17, 2015: “Trouble with the snap…”
Michigan State 27 Michigan 23. pic.twitter.com/uJgsKIs3H7
— This Day In Sports Clips (@TDISportsClips) October 17, 2023
The Michigan offense is built on methodically moving the ball down the field while sucking the life out of the opposing defense.
The Wolverines run the ball on 61.9% of their offensive plays and are playing at the second-slowest pace in the country — only behind Air Force — running a play every 31.9 seconds.
The offense isn't necessarily built on big plays; it's built on positive EPA plays over and over again. Michigan is currently sitting 109th in Explosiveness, but on 53.3% of its offensive plays, it's generating a positive EPA, which is top-10 in the nation.
Blake Corum is having an amazing season as the lead back, carrying the ball for a 5.7 yards per carry average, 12 touchdowns and a 85.1 PFF rushing grade.
When he's called upon to throw, J.J. McCarthy is one of the country's most efficient passers. He's averaging 10.2 yards per attempt and owns a 90.6 PFF passing grade with an 81% adjusted completion percentage.
He's at his best when he's getting outside the pocket. Only Graham Mertz has a better EPA/Pass than McCarthy on attempts outside the pocket, per Sports Info Solutions.
Love seeing this from Michigan QB JJ McCarthy.
Uses his legs to get outside, sees the open space downfield, and directs his tight end for an easy touchdown.
McCarthy has been showing his ability to improvise and create some big plays today. pic.twitter.com/cHczBuJWcK
— Seven Rounds in Heaven (@7RoundsInHeaven) October 14, 2023
Michigan has one of the best defenses in the country, and it's pretty crazy that we're heading into game eight on its schedule with no team being able to score more than 10 points against it.
What makes the Wolverines so good is limiting opponents' scoring opportunities. Michigan is No. 1 in the country in Finishing Drives Allowed and second in Quality Drives Allowed.
The Wolverines have only allowed their opponents to finish a drive inside their 40-yard-line 21 times this season, and they've only allowed a total of 18 points on those 21 drives, which is mind boggling to think about.
The Wolverines are a top-10 pass and run defense by just about every advanced metric, so it's really hard to see not only how Michigan State is going to the move the ball but how it's going to score.
Struggling is the word that I would use to describe the Spartans offense right now.
They have a pretty nice balance between the run and the pass, but neither has been effective whatsoever.
Due to Noah Kim's struggles, Katin Houser got the start against Rutgers. Even though he threw two touchdown passes, he was incredibly inefficient, averaging just 4.6 yards per attempt and a 66.7% adjusted completion percentage.
He's not really an upgrade on Kim, and Michigan State is sitting 77th in Passing Success Rate and 70th in EPA/Pass, so how is it going to throw the ball against Michigan's secondary?
The rushing attack has been much worse off than the passing attack, as Michigan State is outside the top 100 in Rushing Success Rate and is only averaging 3.4 yards per carry.
To make matters even worse, when the Spartans do get in the opponents' territory, they can't score efficiently at all, ranking 106th in Finishing Drives. It's not like the quality of their drives have been good to begin with, as they rank 103rd in that category.
As bad as the offense has been, the Spartans' defense has been pretty decent because of its ability to stop the run. Michigan State is only allowing 3.6 yards per carry and is sixth in the nation in explosive rushing allowed.
That in turn has it inside the top 10 in EPA/Rush Allowed, which is huge against a Michigan team that's going to run the ball over 60% of the time.
The secondary has struggled at times — it's 95th in terms of a PFF coverage grade — so the real battle will be the Spartans getting pressure on McCarthy. The Spartans have a top-30 pressure rate, but have one of the lowest sack rates in the nation.
They've struggled to get home and with a quarterback who has the escapability of McCarthy, it may be a long day for their secondary.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Michigan and Michigan State match up statistically:
Michigan Offense vs. Michigan State Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 18 | 44 | |
| Line Yards | 16 | 37 | |
| Pass Success | 1 | 65 | |
| Havoc | 1 | 49 | |
| Finishing Drives | 11 | 34 | |
| Quality Drives | 6 | 58 |
Michigan State Offense vs. Michigan Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 65 | 11 | |
| Line Yards | 106 | 9 | |
| Pass Success | 77 | 4 | |
| Havoc | 94 | 10 | |
| Finishing Drives | 103 | 1 | |
| Quality Drives | 106 | 2 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 3 | 103 |
| PFF Coverage | 10 | 95 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 7 | 25 |
| Middle 8 | 3 | 30 |
| Seconds per Play | 31.9 (132) | 25.9 (52) |
| Rush Rate | 61.9% (12) | 49.0% (92) |
Michigan vs. Michigan State
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is a really difficult spot for Michigan State. There are major concerns about how often it's actually going to have the ball, given how slow of a pace Michigan is playing at. The Wolverines are controlling time of possession at 53.3%, which is top-25 in the country.
The Michigan State offense has been so inefficient this season, and with a new quarterback making just his second start of the season, I'm not sure how it's going to effectively throw the ball on a top-10 secondary.
Then you have to ask the question: Can Michigan State run the ball effectively? No, it can't given it's outside the top 100 in a lot of rushing metrics.
Finally, Michigan State's inability to finish off scoring drives going up against the best defense at preventing them is a really bad situation all around for the Spartans.
I only have Michigan State projected for 8.3 points in this game, so I like the little bit of value on its team total Under 10.5 (FanDuel).
Pick: Michigan State Team Total Under 10.5
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