The Michigan Wolverines take on the Nebraska Cornhuskers in Lincoln, Neb. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
Michigan is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -135. Nebraska, meanwhile, is a +2.5 underdog and comes in at +114 to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 45.5 points.
Here’s my Michigan vs. Nebraska prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 20.
Michigan vs Nebraska Prediction
- Michigan vs. Nebraska Pick: Over 45.5 or Better
My Nebraska vs. Michigan best bet is on both teams to go over the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Michigan vs Nebraska Odds
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -112 | 45.5 -112o / -108u | -135 |
| Nebraska Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -108 | 45.5 -112o / -108u | +114 |
- Michigan vs Nebraska Spread: Michigan -2.5, Nebraska +2.5
- Michigan vs Nebraska Over/Under: 45.5 Points
- Michigan vs Nebraska Moneyline: Michigan -135, Nebraska +114
Michigan vs Nebraska College Football Betting Preview
Michigan Wolverines Betting Preview: Trying to Bounce Back
Michigan had a successful bounce back from a loss at Oklahoma, pounding Central Michigan by a score of 63-3.
Associate head coach and former Charlotte head coach Biff Poggi acted as interim in the blowout, and he's set to serve in the same role as Sherrone Moore continues a suspension.
The development of freshman sensation quarterback Bryce Underwood continues, as the former five-star prospect threw two turnover-worthy plays against Central Michigan.
The biggest weapon for the Michigan signal-caller is his ability to scramble, generating 87 rushing yards off broken plays in Week 3.
Michigan has been a rush-heavy team, running the ball at a 60% rate against Central Michigan, Oklahoma and New Mexico.
The overall efficiency numbers are lagging in the top 50, but Justice Haynes continues to dominate with 3.8 yards after first contact behind an offensive line that ranks 14th in Stuff Rate.
Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale has called an efficient stop unit to this point, but a lack of pass rush has led to a number of explosive plays through the air.
Dual-threat Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer posted seven explosive passes against the Wolverines, leading to numerous scoring attempts.
The Michigan defense has not stiffened in the red zone, allowing more than half of opponent attempts to end in a touchdown. The Wolverines have allowed 11 opponent offensive possessions to cross the 40-yard line, surrendering 4 points per trip.
Nebraska Cornhuskers Betting Preview: Raiola Leading the Charge
The Nebraska offense has been a balanced attack to this point, but quarterback Dylan Raiola has led a successful passing attack.
With a low average depth of target at 6.8 yards, the sophomore quarterback has eight touchdowns but lacks when it comes to creating big-time throws.
Targets Dane Key and Jacory Barney Jr. have been the stat stuffers to this point, each averaging at least 2.3 yards per route run.
Defensively, the Blackshirts have yielded poor results against the rush thus far in the season.
The Cornhuskers sit bottom-15 in Defensive Rush Efficiency and Line Yards, with a number just outside the top 100 in Stuff Rate. Those numbers come against a schedule that includes Houston Christian, Akron and Cincinnati.
In fact, the Zips produced five rushes that exceeded 12 yards, while the Bearcats averaged 6.7 yards per carry on 30 attempts.
Michigan vs Nebraska Pick, Betting Analysis
Michigan should have no issues generating offense on the ground, as Nebraska has severe struggles against the rush.
The Wolverines have been balanced in terms of run concept, with an even distribution between man, power and inside-outside zone read. Each has created a healthy Success Rate, with the biggest rate of explosiveness coming from power run concepts.
Nebraska has severe struggles against outside zone with a 32% Success Rate — far beyond defending man concepts at a 23% Success Rate. Haynes should be considered for any yardage and touchdown props.
The answer for Nebraska must come in the form of Raiola's arm, which is hitting targets in the short field. The Cornhuskers have feasted on targets within the hashmarks short of 10 yards down the field.
While Tampa 2 and Cover 1 Robber are the best schemes to use against short passing dumps, Michigan will play a heavy amount of quarters. That scheme with a "Robber" adjustment will ask safeties TJ Metcalf and Brandyn Hillman to cover the crossing routes.
Both safeties have graded out average through three games, as neither has recorded a pass breakup while allowing 8-of-10 targets to be caught.
Nebraska offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen has made the Huskers a top-10 team in Quality Drives, which is the ability to create a 10-plus play drive that extends three minutes and ends with a score.
With that said, both teams should find ways to put points on the board on Saturday.
Pick: Over 45.5 or Better
