The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders take on the Delaware Blue Hens in Newark, Delaware. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Delaware is favored by 8.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -350. Middle Tennessee, meanwhile, comes in as a +8.5 underdog and is +275 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 54.5 points.
Here’s my Middle Tennessee vs. Delaware prediction and college football picks for Wednesday, October 22.
Middle Tennessee vs Delaware Prediction
- Middle Tennessee vs. Delaware Pick: Over 54.5 (Play to 55.5)
My Delaware vs. Middle Tennessee best bet is on both teams to go over the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Middle Tennessee vs Delaware Odds
| Middle Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 55 -110o / -110u | +275 |
| Delaware Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 55 -110o / -110u | -350 |
- Middle Tennessee vs Delaware Spread: Delaware -8.5, Middle Tennessee +8.5
- Middle Tennessee vs Delaware Over/Under: 55 Points
- Middle Tennessee vs Delaware Moneyline: Middle Tennessee +275, Delaware -350
Middle Tennessee vs Delaware College Football Preview
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Betting Preview: A Perfect 'Over' Team
Middle Tennessee’s offense has been frustratingly inefficient all year, ranking 107th in EPA Per Pass and 129th in EPA Per Rush. The Blue Raiders have gained only 37.5% of available yards, and they average a distance of around eight yards on money downs.
That means a lot of their drives end early, leading to more possessions overall. They've had a hard time getting ahead of the chains on early downs, with their EPA at a flat 0.
Against Delaware, though, that inefficiency might not matter as much. The Hens defense has been bad on late downs, allowing opponents to convert nearly 47% of their third and fourth downs, giving up more than half of the total available yards.
Middle Tennessee doesn’t need to turn into an offensive menace all of a sudden; it just needs to capitalize on those softer spots and sustain a few more drives than usual.
Quarterback Nicholas Vattiato remains the engine of this attack. Even in an inconsistent system, he has shown flashes as a rhythm passer who can hit chunk plays when protected.
Also, keep an eye on wide receivers Tyree Patterson and Amorion Walker, both of whom are nursing minor injuries but have practiced in some capacity this week. If either is close to full strength, MTSU’s passing ceiling rises significantly.
Defensively, Middle Tennessee is a classic bend-don't-break unit. Its run defense is average, ranking 41st in EPA Per Rush allowed, but the secondary is a massive problem.
The Blue Raiders sit 130th in EPA Per Pass allowed, giving up explosive plays at an extreme rate that has caused them to struggle all season long. That's terrible news going up against Delaware QB Nick Minicucci, who has had an excellent year for the Hens thus far.
Their defense’s inability to stop the pass, paired with an offense that either strikes quickly or gives the ball right back, makes them an ideal dance partner when targeting an over.
Delaware Blue Hens Betting Preview: Minicucci Leads the Way
Delaware’s offensive identity fits this matchup like peas and carrots.
The Blue Hens operate with a balanced attack, but they're at their best through the air, where they’ll face a Middle Tennessee defense that has been disastrous in that area.
The Blue Raiders allow +0.26 EPA Per Pass, which is among the worst in the country. Delaware’s efficiency metrics suggest it'll have no issues generating consistent drives throughout the matchup.
Delaware’s offense is well-above average in both EPA Per Play and available yards gained. The Hens do a nice job of staying on schedule with solid early-down efficiency, and they routinely set themselves up in manageable third-down situations.
Against an MTSU defense that already struggles to get off the field, that’s a recipe for long, clock-chewing drives that end in touchdowns rather than punts.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of explosives through the air, either, as Minicucci has had a sensational season thus far.
Defensively, I have some questions heading into the matchup. The Hens looked completely lost as a unit last week against Jacksonville State, which doesn't give me a boatload of confidence despite facing an inconsistent MTSU offense.
They’ve allowed opponents to pick up over half of available yards and haven’t generated much disruption up front. That matters because Middle Tennessee’s offensive line has been much better in pass protection as opposed to run-blocking, suggesting the Raiders could land a few deep shots to keep the game within reach.
Delaware’s biggest weakness has been on late downs, as it has allowed opponents to extend drives nearly half the time. That leads me to believe it's not going to be able to pick up consistent stops throughout the matchup.
The Hens rank outside the bottom 115 in both EPA Per Pass and EPA Per Rush, so the MTSU offense is going to find its rhythm at some point.
Middle Tennessee vs Delaware Pick, Betting Analysis
When you put all the pieces together, you get a game script that screams "points." With that said, it's hard not to love the over in the matchup.
Delaware’s offense should move the ball efficiently through the air, capitalizing on Middle Tennessee’s 130th-ranked pass defense.
The Blue Raiders’ inability to sustain drives consistently also means Delaware will see more possessions and short fields than usual.
And while MTSU’s offense has been inconsistent, it faces a defense that’s soft enough on late downs to give it a chance at scoring drives of its own.
It's a bit scary to rely on this group given its past results, but the softer matchup should correlate to more offensive success.
If Delaware jumps out early, Middle Tennessee’s tempo will tick up, which will only help the over. I believe in both offensive units to create enough scoring opportunities here.
Pick: Over 54.5 (Play to 55.5)
Middle Tenn vs Delaware Betting Trends
