The Missouri State Bears take on the USC Trojans in Los Angeles, CA. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on BTN.
USC is favored by -35.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -10000. The total is set at 59.5 points.
Here’s my Missouri State vs. USC predictions and college football picks for Saturday, August 30, 2025.
Missouri State vs USC Prediction
- Missouri State vs. USC Pick: Under 59.5
My USC vs. Missouri State best bet is on the under. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Missouri State vs USC Odds
| Missouri State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+35.5 -115 | 59.5 -108o / -112u | +2500 |
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-35.5 -105 | 59.5 -108o / -112u | -10000 |
- Missouri State vs USC point spread: USC -35.5
- Missouri State vs USC over/under: 59.5 points
- Missouri State vs USC moneyline: Missouri State +2500, USC -10000
Missouri State vs USC Pick, Betting Analysis
Last season was a disappointment for USC under head coach Lincoln Riley. Those question marks are carrying over in 2025, but the Trojans still have an incredibly talented bunch, led by a slew of transfer additions and the No. 1 recruiting class in the country.
The Trojans utilize the throttle against Missouri State on Saturday, but the play still is on the under in this Week 1 affair.
The reason is two systems that are lighting up: Evan Abrams' "Game 1 Unders, Low Profile Games" and "Popular High Unders."
When it comes to the first system: In college football, opening games often bring more conservative play than expected, especially in lower-profile matchups.
With both teams playing their first game of the season, timing and execution can lag, and coaches may limit risk while assessing rosters in real competition.
When betting interest is lower than average, the market’s influence on the total is reduced, often leaving inflated numbers untouched. In these situations, early-season rust, cautious game plans and fewer big plays tend to keep scoring below projections, making the under a stronger position.
While system number one focuses more on the situational spot, system number two focuses on the public action.
In college football, high posted totals often attract a surge of public action on the over, especially when casual bettors anticipate a shootout. When the closing number sits in the upper range and public money heavily favors points, oddsmakers tend to inflate the line to balance action.
This creates value on the under, as actual game flow can be slowed by factors like defensive adjustments, ball control strategies and the natural variance of scoring in high total games.
The result is that popular high total matchups frequently fail to reach the lofty expectations set by the market.
Most importantly, as you can see above, both of these systems have a positive overall return on investment (ROI) since inception.
Pick: Under 59.5
