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The Missouri State Bears take on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers in Bowling Green, Kentucky, on Thursday, Oct. 8. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Western Kentucky is favored by -2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -135. Missouri State, meanwhile, enters as a +2.5 underdog and is +114 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 56.5 total points.
Here’s my Missouri State vs. Western Kentucky prediction and college football pick for Thursday, October 8.
Missouri State vs Western Kentucky Prediction
- Missouri State vs Western Kentucky Pick: Missouri State Team Total Over 27.5
My Western Kentucky vs. Missouri State best bet is on the Bears to go over their team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Missouri State vs Western Kentucky Odds
| Missouri State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | +114 |
| Western Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | -135 |
- Missouri State vs Western Kentucky Spread: Missouri State +2.5 (-105), Western Kentucky -2.5 (-115)
- Missouri State vs Western Kentucky Over/Under: 56.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Missouri State vs Western Kentucky Moneyline: Missouri State +114, Western Kentucky -135
Missouri State vs Western Kentucky College Football Preview
Missouri State Bears Betting Preview: So Far, So Lucky
Casey Woods' Missouri State team is better than you might expect.
A 34-24 loss at SMU was aided by an errant Kevin Jennings throw that turned into a pick-six, as the Mustangs missed several scoring opportunities and doubled up the Bears' total yardage.
That clearly factored into the market appraisal of Missouri State, which comes in as an underdog at Western Kentucky this Thursday.
What doesn't seem factored in is the countless opportunities to beat Marshall at home two weeks ago. Two goal-line drives ended in zero points for Missouri State, and it outgained Marshall by 50 yards in what should have been a victory.
Flip the result of that game, and where does MO State sit coming into Week 6?
Skyler Locklear is far from good. He mustered just 102 passing yards against SMU, and he has only four touchdown passes on the season.
But offensive coordinator Mark Cala isn't asking a lot of the senior. In fact, Locklear has attempted just eight passes between 10-19 yards this season and 55 within nine yards.
What you get is a low-risk, 70% completion game manager and the occasional pop from a deep ball (usually to a wide-open receiver on a busted coverage — but that's good play design!).
Defensively, this team is a mess. Missouri State has managed to put a cap on explosive plays, particularly in the run game, but teams have moved the ball at will against it.
The Bears rank dead last nationally in allowing 6.4 red-zone attempts per game this year. That has translated to a score less than 79% of the time, remarkably 38th in the country.
I'm not a fan of bend-don't-break defenses because good coordinators score in the red zone frequently, and it implies you're giving up chunk yardage. On any given game, you're susceptible to allowing an avalanche of points.
So far, MO State has gotten lucky. But perhaps that red-zone luck continues. After all, defensive coorindator Jack Curtis deserves some credit for keeping things within reason so far.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Betting Preview: Disastrous Defense
Western Kentucky is in significant trouble. The Hilltoppers started with what could be considered the most difficult schedule in the country, visiting Nevada, Georgia and Indiana in Weeks 1-3.
Unsurprisingly, that led to a 0-3 start with a -123 point differential (though the 49-14 blowout at the hands of Nevada was certainly more than expected).
WKU returned home and beat up on a hapless Mercyhurst team, 52-7, before hitting the road again to play New Mexico State.
The Tops defense is a disaster. The change at quarterback for New Mexico State certainly helped, but the Aggies rolled right over the Toppers to the tune of 6.1 yards per carry and 34 points despite going 2-of-12 on third down (a pick-six helped out).
Tackling was poor, and run fits were nonexistent. As it stands before Week 6, WKU is in contention for the worst FBS team.
On the other side, the hire of Bodie Reeder at offensive coordinator was baffling this offseason and continues to baffle now.
Reeder came from rival Middle Tennessee, where he led the Blue Raiders to a finish of 95th in Points Per Drive and was let go by Blue Raiders head coach Derek Mason.
Tyson Helton really must have been impressed by Reeder's 541 yards gained against his Toppers in 2025 by bringing him on. It has proven to be a mess.
Only two teams nationally are worse on a per-drive scoring basis, and everyone looks worse, including quarterback Rodney Tisdale Jr.
Helton nailed his last string of coordinators, but this one is a straight fumble. Only UTEP (coming off a 61-7 loss to New Mexico) is worse in net Points Per Drive than WKU, and nobody is worse in net yards per play (-3.57!).
Missouri State vs Western Kentucky Pick, Betting Analysis
Missouri State opened as a +2.5 road underdog and was initially bet up to a -1.5 favorite before action came in heavily on WKU. It has remained unmoved at +2.5 since Sunday.
The total sat around 55 for most of the week before bets nudged it up to 56.5, where it sits now. There's at least one respected move under 56 points.
When a team tells you it's bad, listen to it. Western Kentucky is bad.
The Toppers are stunted from a play-calling standpoint on offense, have no dudes on defense, and their line play on both sides is downright atrocious.
They made New Mexico State look almost excellent, and consensus power ratings tab the Aggies 113th nationally. What we learned from that game is that the cure for a common offense is a bad defense.
WKU returns to Bowling Green for just its second home game of the year. It returns after traveling over 6,000 miles with four road games and an 0-4 record against FBS competition. Two of those games were also played in different time zones.
The Tops also rely extremely heavily on their defensive starters. Given the poor performance so far, that tells me the coaching staff isn't confident in its defensive depth.
While I'm not sure I'm confident backing Locklear in a road conference game just yet, Cala loves to run with pace, and I haven't seen any reason to believe the WKU defense does much to stop Missouri State's offense.
This field should play fast in the warm October conditions expected in Bowling Green South (Kentucky, that is). WKU's defense has yet to show a shred of reason to believe it can slow down an FBS offense.
Pick: Missouri State Team Total Over 27.5 (-110 · DraftKings)
