Boise State vs. San Jose State: College Football Betting Odds & Picks For the Mountain West Championship

Boise State vs. San Jose State: College Football Betting Odds & Picks For the Mountain West Championship article feature image
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Douglas Stringer/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: The San Jose State Spartans.

  • The San Jose State Spartans look to pull off an upset in the Mountain West Championship on Saturday when they face the Boise State Broncos.
  • BJ Cunningham would not be surprised whatsoever if the Spartans do, in fact, upset the Broncos.
  • Check out Cunningham's full betting pick with updated odds below.

Boise State vs. San Jose State Odds

Boise State Odds -6.5 [BET NOW]
San Jose State Odds +6.5 [BET NOW]
Moneyline -240/+190 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 57.5 [BET NOW]
Time Saturday, 4:15 p.m. ET
TV FOX
Odds as of Thursday afternoon and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today.

Boise State goes for its third Mountain West title in four years on Saturday when it battles undefeated San Jose State.

Surprisingly, the Spartans are tied atop the Mountain West standings with a perfect 6-0 record. San Jose State has taken care of business at every turn despite having to play its last two games away from home.

In the latest college football ranking on Tuesday, San Jose State cracked the top 25 for the first time in the program’s history.

Boise State’s season has been filled with ups, downs and weird box scores. The Broncos survived a game against Wyoming in Laramie last weekend in the middle of a snowstorm, winning 17-9 to secure a spot in the title game.

Besides a blowout loss to BYU, the Broncos are undefeated in the Mountain West. However, they’ve avoided some of the best teams in the conference. San Jose State will be the best team they’ve seen since BYU.

Boise State Broncos

Despite their 6-1 record, the Broncos have had an up-and-down season. They’ve looked really dominant at times and average at others.

Boise State’s offense, however, has been stellar behind sophomore quarterback Hank Bachmeier, who is averaging 8.1 yards per attempt and has six touchdowns in his four starts on the season. The Broncos have scored 40+ points in three of those four games.

Bachmeier is in a perfect situation to succeed, with all of his targets and top three running backs returning from last year. Junior wide receiver Khalil Shakir has been a matchup nightmare for opposing secondaries, and he already has 46 catches and six touchdowns this season.

The Broncos’ running game has struggled at times this season because of the offensive line, where they had to replace four starters.

San Jose State has been stout against the run this year, so Boise may be forced to become one-dimensional on Saturday.

Defense

Boise State has struggled on defense mainly because it has given up way too many explosive plays. The Broncos are 118th in explosiveness allowed and 124th in explosive passing allowed this season, per College Football Data. That is going to be an issue against the Spartans’ passing attack, which ranks inside the top 25 in explosive passing.

The weakness of this Boise State defense can be found against the run. The Broncos are allowing 4.2 yards per rush attempt and are 110th in the country in rushing explosiveness allowed.

San Jose State’s run game has come alive in the past few games, so Boise State is going to have trouble keeping the Spartans in check on Saturday.


San Jose State Spartans

Offense

The Spartans made a drastic switch on offense last season, going to a more pass-heavy attack. So far, it has done wonders.

Arkansas transfer Nick Starkel has been fantastic, averaging 9.1 yards per attempt and leading the Spartans to a ranking of 16th in terms of Passing Success, according to College Football Data. San Jose State returned all of its main targets from last season, so this passing attack is legit.

The ground attack hasn’t been called on much this season, as the Spartans throw the ball on 56% of their plays. That said, it has come alive the last three games, gaining a whopping 6.8 yards per attempt. 

San Jose State also returns three starters on an offensive line that has been stellar in its pass protection so far. Starkel has been sacked only three times this season.

Defense

The defensive side of the ball has improved greatly, as the Spartans are 49th in Defensive Success Rate, per College Football Data. They’ve allowed only 4.8 yards per play through their first four games, excelling versus the run.

Eight of San Jose State’s top 11 tacklers are back from last season, making it poised to become one of the best defenses in the Mountain West.

The Spartans have allowed only 3.4 yards per rush attempt so far, which is the second-best mark in the Mountain West. Those strengths will come in handy against Boise, which has struggled to run the ball this season.

The pass defense is where San Jose State is going to have to step up if it’s going to beat Bachmaier and the Broncos.

The Spartans are allowing 6.8 yards per pass attempt on the season and rank 44th in Defensive Passing Success. They returned a lot of experience in their secondary but will have a big task trying to shut down Boise’s passing attack.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

I think San Jose State is absolutely capable of pulling off an upset in the Mountain West title game.

Starkel and the Spartan passing attack should be able to throw the ball all over the Broncos’ secondary similar to what Zach Wilson and BYU did earlier in the season.

I actually have San Jose State projected as a -1.88 favorite, so I think there’s plenty of value on the Spartans at +7.

Pick: San Jose State +7 (down to +3).

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