No CodeNeeded

NC State vs Virginia Tech Pick: Bet Wolfpack Against the Spread

NC State vs Virginia Tech Pick: Bet Wolfpack Against the Spread article feature image

Pictured: Brennan Armstrong. (Photo by Ryan M. Kelly/Getty Images)

NC State vs Virginia Tech Pick

Saturday, Nov. 18
3:30 p.m. ET
ACC Network
NC State Odds
-110o / -110u
Virginia Tech Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

In a game with major significance in the Atlantic Coast Conference, Virginia Tech welcomes NC State to Lane Stadium on Saturday afternoon.

The Hokies need just one win in their final two contests to become bowl-eligible for the first time under coach Brent Pry.

Meanwhile, the Wolfpack have won four of their past five to push themselves into the conversation for making the ACC Championship Game.

I believe there’s solid betting value to take advantage of, so let's look at our NC State vs Virginia Tech pick.

Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

NC State Wolfpack

Veteran head coach Dave Doeren is once again working his magic at NC State. He has his team surging at the right time thanks to strong defensive play.

In conference play, the Wolfpack lead the ACC in scoring defense and are allowing just 14.5 points per game. This unit also ranks in the top 25 in the country in 10 defensive categories and has allowed just 84.1 rushing yards per game over the past eight contests.

The leader of that unit is linebacker Payton Wilson, who is first in the conference and fifth in the FBS in tackles. He was recently named a Butkus Award semifinalist and is a four-time ACC LB of the Week recipient this year.

On the offensive side of the ball, NC State was forced to go back to quarterback Brennan Armstrong after MJ Morris decided to sit out the remainder of the season to preserve his redshirt after a 3-1 record as the starter.

Phone With the Action App Open
The must-have app for college football bettors
The best NCAAF betting scoreboard
Free picks from proven pros
Live win probabilities for your bets

Virginia Tech Hokies

After a 3-8 record in his debut season, Pry has the program moving in the right direction in his second year.

If Virginia Tech is going to get to a bowl, Pry needs his defense to continue pressuring opposing quarterbacks. Tech’s defense is second in the ACC in sacks and is tied for 10th nationally.

The defensive unit is also third in the conference in tackles for loss, with 80 through 10 games.

Pry also had to be encouraged by the play of quarterback Kyron Drones in the victory over Boston College. The Baylor transfer racked up 135 yards rushing to go with 219 yards through the air.

Drones' performance led to him being named ACC Quarterback of the Week, and he'll need to come up big here for another win.

Legal sports betting is coming to North Carolina! Check out our NC state page for more information.

NC State vs Virginia Tech

Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how NC State and Virginia Tech match up statistically:

NC State Offense vs. Virginia Tech Defense
Rush Success7436
Line Yards5043
Pass Success10843
Finishing Drives46124
Quality Drives9434
Virginia Tech Offense vs. NC State Defense
Rush Success6026
Line Yards8617
Pass Success9718
Finishing Drives5342
Quality Drives7318
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling285
PFF Coverage5388
Special Teams SP+1715
Middle 84411
Seconds per Play28.9 (102)28.7 (96)
Rush Rate54.9% (72)58.4% (32)

NC State vs Virginia Tech

Betting Pick & Prediction

This is likely going to be a defensive slugfest and I plan on backing the better defense, even on the road.

So, my best bet is to take NC State at +3. If this drops below the key number, I'll play NC State on the moneyline.

There are a couple of key metrics that lead me to this bet, starting with finishing drives. Both offenses have done a decent job of scoring points when they cross the 40, but the Hokies rank 124th in this stat on defense, while the Wolfpack are 42nd. If you look over the past four weeks, Tech is last among Power 5 programs in the same metric.

In a matchup where consistent offensive progression could be a struggle, explosive plays will be crucial. This is another edge for the visitors.

NC State has been the most explosive offense in the P5 over the past four weeks. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech's defense is in the bottom 10 in giving up explosive plays over the same stretch.

I think the Wolfpack will continue their late-season surge with another cover here.

Pick: NC State +3 | Play the Moneyline if Spread Drops Below 3

ESPN Bet is now live! Make sure you're ready for all the action with our exclusive ESPN BET promo code TANBONUS.

How would you rate this article?

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.